-536
3D printers are becoming more affordable and easier to use every day, if not exactly mainstream quite yet. Although 3D printing is obviously ideal for rapid prototyping and industrial design, many cutting edge artists and crafters have been embracing this new technology, with its seemingly unlimited possibilities for designing, creating, and sharing artwork and physical pieces.
.
Q. Hisashi Iwakmua had an actual ERA of 2.66, but a hypothetical ERA (that is, an xFIP) of 3.28. What does the Detect-O-Scope mainframe say about this?
A. A thing that is very, very similar to what Father Frankenstein (Bill James) would say. And similar to the what Geoff Baker would say, and similar in approach to the one that Jeff Sullivan took.
.
Q. Does a hypothetical ERA show us what a pitcher "should have" done?
A. It does not. Thanks for asking.
For pitchers as a group, hypothetical ERA's tend to predict the future better than actual ERA. Mat Olkin discovered this about 1993, with his "Olkin ERA" of SLG x OBP x 31. He realized that it predicted future ERA better than ERA predicts itself.
That's pretty cool, when you find component stats (in any segment of life) that predict surface stats better than they predict themselves. It's like body language. It's a huge advantage to know that when you're talking, and somebody puts their hand near their mouth, they dislike what you're saying.
.
Q. WHEN might luck --- > NOT be luck?
A. You can't say that all pitchers "should have" the same BABIP -- nor the same HR-per-fly. Joe Saunders' fly balls weren't tatoo'ed any harder than Kuma's? Some pitchers give up a higher MPH on their batted balls, you know.
Pitchers don't pitch to the park, to their fielders, etc?
...............
Sully pointed out, on USSM, that Iwakuma had an excellent result with men on base. Being the flexible, open-minded man that he is, he was friendly to the possibility that some of these runners failed to score because Iwakuma pitched good.
Greg Maddux had a ballet-like motion and he used to do his bullpens from the stretch "because your most important pitches in a game occur from the stretch." Hisashi Iwakuma throws very, very good pitches with men on base. Tom Wilhelmsen, not so much.
Let's suppose that's true. In that case, WAR and FIP are making assumptions about Iwakuma that are not accurate.
.
Q. Are you saying that you expect Iwakuma to pitch better-than-average in 2014 with men on base?
A. I do, yes.
.
Q. What if you used xFIP and WAR to dictate the Cy Young? Why not just hand the Cy to whichever pitcher has the most WAR?
A. Because at some point you've got to stop caring what somebody coulda done, or woulda done, as you see it ... and ask what they did done. It's actually more objective to do that! We could argue about FIP as a base assumption behind WAR. There is no arguing about Max Scherzer's actual 21 wins, nor Detroit's upcoming game in the playoffs.
CC Sabathia ran an ERA of 4.78 this year. His hypothetical ERA -- normal defense, HR-per-fly rate, etc -- was 3.76. It's true that Sabathia threw the ball better than his ERA indicates.
Q. OK. Enough comedy jokes. If Dr. D were handing out the 2013 Cy Young ... how much of a travesty would we be in for?
A. For one thing, I don't like the kiddie Roto debates about whether to draft Justin Verlander first or Felix Hernandez first. I avoid them.
What purpose does it serve, to argue about whether LeBron James could have beaten Michael Jordan in 1-on-1? Most of the time, that argument just serves to diminish one of the players. "Jordan wasn't that great. LeBron would embarrass him."
OK, so forget that Jordan was better than any other player in human history. Focus on your belief that there did exist one player who was better? Yeah, that's the right orientation on Jordan.
When Grumpy's surgical career comes up, let's make it about the fact that Frederic Mohs was better than he is. Forget the fact that you don't have a CPR card :- )
...........
Arguing about Scherzer vs Iwakuma serves usually has the result of diminishing one of the pitchers.
.
Q. That said, do you give 'Kuma a Cy Young for that season?
A. Hisashi Iwakuma, in 2013 had a Cy Young season. So did other guys.
Many years, a pitcher steps forward and owns the Cy. Pedro and Randy Johnson used to lap the field. That was not the way this year.
It's an important distinction to make. Some years, there is a thundering Cy performance. Other years, there is a handful of co-Cy's.
Nobody gets a Pedro award this year.
.
Q. James said "the fabric of baseball history is woven on great starting pitchers." What was historic about Iwakuma?
A. Had you noticed that WBC-san went 14-6 for a terrible team? How do you make 33 starts for the Seattle Mariners, and only lose 6 of them? I'd like to see you try it.
This year Starbucks started the holiday creep by launching their Pumpkin Spice Lattes early, mid-September, when much of the country happened to be gripped by a heat wave. THANKS STARBUCKS. I love your PSLs (as those-in-the-know call them) but that's the same nonsense that gets us Valentine's Day stuff for sale in November, and Easter stuff for sale in December. (I have witnessed both of these things with my own eyes.)
This article started because I wanted to highlight some Parks and Rec-themed crafts to celebrate the return of the show (which premieres Thursday at 8/7c). But I was soon off on a tangent reading about Nick Offerman, who plays the iconic Ron Swanson.
Offerman's first love may be acting, but crafting runs a passionate close second. Offerman is an avid and accomplished fine woodworker.
.
Part I of Spectator's anti-Paxton rant here.* Part I links yer to Part II.
*HEH!
Excellent articles Jim. And this is, no exaggeration, a much better site when in "Think Tank" mode, having people take opposing sides of a question. You took the wrong side of this in a very skilled way.
:- )
... no, seriously, it's blinkin' seldom we reply to a post in a "Roundtable" tit-for-tat way. Only when the argument on the other side is very persuasive.
.
Q. For every 1 Randy Johnson, there are dozens of Scott Kazmirs.
A. I'll see you and raise. For every 1 Randy Johnson, there are 17,000 other players (the number of MLB players in history).
Question on Paxton is whether he can be Brett Anderson, or maybe even David Price or Chris Sale, or at the top end Clayton Kershaw. Dr. D isn't comparing Paxton to legends like Unit and Koufax, though that is the extreme end of Paxton's template.
Randy Johnson is, um, rare, but there are a good number of Derek Hollands and David Prices. In fact virtually every left hand pitcher sporting a 92+ fastball, with enough control to stay in the rotation, is an impact TOR.
Kazmir is a buzzword for the worst-case scenario on a hyped power lefty, but ... he racked up 3.7, 3.8, and 5.1 WAR in the three seasons before his fastball tailed off. If that's the worst you can do as a hyped LHP? Three seasons of All-Star level contribution?, that's not shabby. Brad Miller's downside is a lot lower than 3.7 WAR.
.
Q. Has Paxton solved the issues that led to a mediocre AAA season?
A. It was a mediocre AAA season, yes. And he has NOT solved the issues, no. (Once he hit Safeco, he started making obvious progress on them.)
Dr. D's position is that he doesn't need to solve those issues before joining the Mariners, any more than Mulder and Gonzalez did with the A's, any more than Kershaw did with the Dodgers, etc.
But. I gotta sign off on this accurate observation by Spec. Yes Paxton was fighting himself. And still is.
.
Q. Is Paxton similar to Brandon Maurer, who also has very impressive stuff?
A. Maurer's RHP fastball is 92.9 MPH, which is pretty quick. He's got three interesting pitches to go with it.
Paxton's LHP fastball is 94.7 MPH, the very fastest in the American League, way ahead of Derek Holland at 93.6. Chris Sale is at 93.1.
And it cuts and sinks. And it's overhand. And yada yada yada. Maurer has plus stuff, but K-Pax is on Taijuan's level. It's three standard deviations past Maurer.
.
Q. Could Paxton gain from a year in AAA?
A. He certainly could.
Having slo-mo'ed 4 starts to a fare-thee-well :- ) we realize that he's got very little to improve in terms of mechanics. It's just repetitions. That's all. Pitchers just need to practice, and practice, and practice, and then their aim gets better. Paxton could do that in AAA.
.
Q. Could Danny Hultzen be a better choice for 2014?
A. He certainly could.
I saw Hultzen in person, and it turned around my evaluation of him... if his labrum isn't torn (guessing a 50% chance that it is) then he is only inches away from being a totally finished product.
Hultzen is much, much closer to his peak than Taijuan or Paxton are. Problem is, his talent is probably vastly lower than theirs. Maybe that means you want to use Hultzen first; that was Zduriencik's reasoning with Erasmo.
.
Q. Is this Dr. D's position, as Spec asked?
Anyway, if I understand Doc's argument, it would be this (please correct if I'm framing it wrong):
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/mild-dissent-james-paxton-0#stha...
.
A. No, it really isn't my position, so thanks for asking for clarification.
My position is stated in this article. The above position would be farfetched and inaccurate.
The germ of similarity is this: I've observed some wild power pitchers, against whom lower-level hitters couldn't make contact, benefit from the conditions at higher levels. Kerry Wood and Tim Lincecum were examples.
You want to be aware of this syndrome, in explaining the odd Wood, Lincecum, or Paxton :- ) but arguing that it WILL happen, that would be crazy.
.
Q. Does Cole vs Bauer go into Spec's corner?
A. Big time. One of his best calls.
I had both in the top 10, of course, but would have preferred Bauer. Cole looked very Morrow-ish to me at UCLA, but as we say we'd have drafted him high.
Hey, Spectator ain't writing on this blog for no reason. He's here because he's one of the best baseball writers on the internet. I'd rather read his stuff than that of most authors on the national sites. Fortunately for us, here he is, educating us all on Mariners bushers.
.
Now that fall is creeping up on us, I have officially declared it to be Pot Roast Season. I bought a big roast at the store on sale yesterday and it has been in my slow cooker all day long, putting out an increasingly distracting delicious smell.
The basic difference between pot roast and roast beef is that pot roast is cooked wet, while roast beef is cooked dry. Both use a "low and slow" cooking method which renders otherwise tough cuts of cheap meat delicious and fork tender.
If you have been thinking about whittling down your yarn stash, this is the perfect time of year to do it. September and October are big months for the knitting community, which rouses from its summer torpor and starts thinking about knitting in earnest. This also makes it a great time for you to clear out some room in your stash tubs for the new stuff you want to buy!
I love horseradish so much, but I have had to abstain ever since I switched to a low carb diet. I have yet to find a commercial horseradish preparation that doesn't include sugar, even though most actual recipes for horseradish don't add sugar. For some reason in America, we can't send anything out the door without sugar in it, though. And thus, commercial horseradish is sweetened. (Why though, seriously?)
This week I decided to finally buckle down and make my own horseradish. It turned out to be so easy that I wonder why I didn't try this sooner.
This weekend I ran across a fabulous new (to me) product: iPhone cases that you can customize with cross stitch. The case I bought is part of a kit from Coats and Clark which includes a black case (made of a rubbery material which feels similar to neoprene) to fit the iPhone 4/4S plus four patterns, an embroidery needle, and six bobbins of colored floss.
The four patterns are a cupcake, the Eiffel Tower, lace, and plaid. Luckily you are not limited to those four patterns - not by a long shot!
