Texas

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Look like any GM's you know?  :- )

If you want to see 85 seconds that capture the essence of Dr. D's complaint with the "win 85-90 games with efficient dollars" approach -- as Dr. D sees it, anyway --  this Lombardi video will give you a feel for it.

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Q.  How much difference does SSI expect from the new dimensions?

A.  :- O

Had the Mariners simply removed the scoreboard in LF, we'd have expected a large impact.  What they actually did... ::golfclap:: can we get a stadium name change with that?  I'll go for Funway Park.

For those who just joined us, Dr. D does not quote Bill James because he's divinely inspired.  We quote from him because he has a unique voice.  Well, that and the fact that Dr. D is used to listening to Grandmasters with massive pattern recognition.  Here is what James had when asked about the Padres' home park:

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Any comments on the talk about the Padres moving their fences up? Sounds like it will happen, do not know what dimensions yet.

Asked by: dyourg

Answered: 4/28/2012

I'd be in favor of it, if I was in San Diego.     In the steroid era, maybe there was an advantage to keeping the totals real.   But who wants to have a team that scores 550 runs in a season?  What hitter wants to play in a park like that?   Here's my suggestion:  Have a little triangle that juts out from the end of the bullpen in right field, maybe 15 feet, where there are bright red ground-level seats.   If the ball is hit into the red seats on the fly, it's a ground rule TRIPLE.  

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Two things about this reply:

1. We guesstimate that James' design change amounts to about 25% of the design change that the Mariners enacted.  Check me on that.
2. James' tweak skews the park to help the lefties it's been punishing (IIRC), as the M's did for righties.  More on that latah...

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Q.  If you check the scatter charts, each Mariner hitter would have gained only 1-4 homers in 2012, based on an overlay.

A.  The operative word there being "EACH."

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Q.  ...

A.  Larry LaRue pointed out that on Tuesday, when the score was 3-0 Mariners, that with the new fences it would have been 9-5.  I'm blinkin' lovin' it.  If we turn out to have Coors West it is All Right By Me.

No, the impact may not be quite so colossal, but I been sitting up there on the 3B side, 3rd deck, since the park's been open.  There are LOTSA LOTSA balls off that scoreboard, up against that wall...

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Q.  Iwakuma had his "B game" working?

A.  How doth he limp tonight?  Let us count the ways:

• Slider was flat, staying up, 4" less sink than usual, you could look it up
• Shuuto had little bite, staying up, 2" less sink
• Fastball was down about 1.0, 1.5 MPH
• Command wasn't great, especially early, was behind in the count

So his line was 5.1 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 1:4 CTL ratio - on the face of it quite good against the Rangers in Texas, but he could have given up four runs.  He gave up two solo shots and scattered the other five hits.  (On the other hand, one of the HR's was a cheap HR that was an easy out in Safeco.)

Still and all, the story is:  he cobbled a win-quality performance out of a grade B evening.  Against the mighty Rangers.  There are a whale of a lot of guys who can't.

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Q.  Any reason he was on his B game?

A.  We mentioned last time that Iwakuma needs to step forward an extra few inches, to promote the wrist snap.  It was raining in Texas.  Bad footing, wet ball.  Iwakuma-san himself would tell you that his balance was off.  Never saw him look so graceless physically.

Q.  Is Felix just on a hot roll?  Is it even possible for a pitcher at such a high level to get better?

A.  If you just joined us, pitchers' careers aren't tethered to the slow, gradual assimilation of pitches, pitch release points, pitch spin patterns, and pitch sequences.  Hitters' perceptions improve slowly, steadily, and predictably.  Pitching is a different sport.

Sure, excellent pitchers evolve to leap levels, sometimes three levels.  Pedro Martinez at the ages of 22, 23, and 24 was a pretty good pitcher, 120 ERA+, and his Three True Outcomes were 8+ strikeouts, 3 walks, and 0.8 homers per game.  Then at age 25 he figured something out, and became Pedro.  He ran 200 ERA+'s, with 11 strikeouts, 1+ walks, and 0.5 homer rates.  

Curt Schilling spent the six years from 1995 to 2000 as an All-Star level pitcher, ERA+ of 130, and K:BB ratios of 3:1 or 4:1.  Then from 2001-05 he morphed from All-Star to the game's most dominating pitcher, except for his teammate Randy Johnson, ERA+ of 150 and K:BB ratios of like 316:31 one year.  You could find lots of these guys.

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Q.  Supposing Felix, twelve games ago, reallllly got good.  What's the reason?

Surrender now?  Or do you still require incentive?

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The Decent, Dept.

Our own post-Texas script axed Iwakuma to get him some respect, as Moyer and Vargas and Maddux and etc. had to do in order to pitch with 80-something fastballs.  To go inside and up the letters with the fastball, and then to go below the knees with breaking pitches on two strikes.  

In the first inning Friday, Iwakuma-san seemed to be (inadvertently) following Dr. D's prescription.  His very first pitch to B.J. Upton was a crisp fastball letter-high, where Upton might swing underneath it.  As opposed to "pitching to contact," you know.

Later in the AB -- #6 on the GameDay -- he seemed to throw a ... forkball?!  And on pitch 7, he challenged Upton with a humped-up 92 fastball.  Struck him out.  One batter into the game, Iwakuma had exceeded his Texas strikeout total by a ratio of infinity.

The command was still not impressive in the first, but the attack factor was much much much much better.  Iwakuma finished the inning with an 8-pitch battle against Jeff Keppinger... pitches 6 and 7, Iwakuma set him up with two 86 MPH pitches an dthen pitch 8, Iwakuma humped up again and blew a 93 fastball by him for an IN YO' FACE strikeout. 

Game on.  Okaaaayyyyyyyy.