Q.  Is Felix just on a hot roll?  Is it even possible for a pitcher at such a high level to get better?

A.  If you just joined us, pitchers' careers aren't tethered to the slow, gradual assimilation of pitches, pitch release points, pitch spin patterns, and pitch sequences.  Hitters' perceptions improve slowly, steadily, and predictably.  Pitching is a different sport.

Sure, excellent pitchers evolve to leap levels, sometimes three levels.  Pedro Martinez at the ages of 22, 23, and 24 was a pretty good pitcher, 120 ERA+, and his Three True Outcomes were 8+ strikeouts, 3 walks, and 0.8 homers per game.  Then at age 25 he figured something out, and became Pedro.  He ran 200 ERA+'s, with 11 strikeouts, 1+ walks, and 0.5 homer rates.  

Curt Schilling spent the six years from 1995 to 2000 as an All-Star level pitcher, ERA+ of 130, and K:BB ratios of 3:1 or 4:1.  Then from 2001-05 he morphed from All-Star to the game's most dominating pitcher, except for his teammate Randy Johnson, ERA+ of 150 and K:BB ratios of like 316:31 one year.  You could find lots of these guys.

.

Q.  Supposing Felix, twelve games ago, reallllly got good.  What's the reason?

A.  Amazing new cut fastball.  Throwing 60% breaking pitches.  Attacking with the fastball high to miss bats rather than to hit them.

.

Q.  How good might Felix be, sustainably?  In the upside scenario, what's his upside, upsidely-speaking?

A.  In those 12 games, here are his stats:

The three luck stats ... BABIP, homer per fly ball, and strand rate ... nobody can give up 0.2 homers forever.  Pedro gave up 0.3 and 0.4 in several years.  There's a bit of give there.  Strand rate, Felix usually finishes his innings.  Not toooo much give there.  BABIP isn't overly low.

All things carefully considered ... Randy Johnson's late 1992 breakout, Pedro's stats in Fenway, lots of things ... for Felix to rip off a string of 22-7, 1.95 ERA seasons looks feasible at Safeco Field.

Pedro ran ERA's of 1.90, 2.07, 1.74, 2.20, 2.26 in five of six years and that's in Fenway.  Felix could -- probably will -- run 9.0 strikeouts and 1+ walks now.  Ben Sheets, even, ran a year at 10.0 strikeouts, 1.2 walks ... 

Greg Maddux ran several ERA's in the 1's and in the low 2's, even in a smaller park.  Primarily because he walked 1+ men, as Felix is now walking 1+ men per game.

.

Q.  Is there any particular key you watch for here?

A.  In those last twelve Felix games, included have been these wins:

• Shutout of Boston, 1-0.  With 13 strikeouts
• Shutout of Texas, 7-0.  With 12 strikeouts and 0 walks
• Shutout of New York, 1-0.  With only 2 hits
• Win over New York, 4-2.
• Perfect Game over Tampa.  With 12 strikeouts

Those games have something in common, that thing being John Jaso.  Jaso caught the perfect game, Jaso caught the shutout of the Yankees, Jaso caught the shutout of the Rangers ... in fact, had you noticed?  John Jaso has caught six of Felix' last seven games.  (In fairness, Olivo did catch the Boston shutout.  I like Miguel Olivo.  I just don't think that Montero and Jaso are bad catchers, don't think that fastballs are the "correct" pitches, and don't think that you need to focus on the batter's weaknesses more than you focus on your pitcher's strengths.)

After the Yankee win, Felix said that he shook Jaso off four times during the game.  After the perfect game, he said that it was two times.

And here Jaso is calling 60% breaking pitches.  They're on the same sheet of music.  Really my only worry is that somehow Felix will drift back out of the clear, coherent game plan he's been using with Jaso.

.

Q.  Do you think that Felix really would forget about his breaking stuff?

A.  :- )

In the 9th inning today, Felix got behind a hitter 2-and-0 ... boom, here's a slider, take this with you kid.  Dan Wilson fell out of his chair.  Wow!  A 2-0 slider?  That's a lot of confidence in that slider.

The basic reason that other pitchers don't throw more breaking stuff is that they can't throw it for strikes.  Not at will, anyway.  Felix throws his to spots.

There's a downside to Felix' career.  He could go on to be merely Felix.  But the upside is there.  Yeah, 50 is the new 38, strong is the new skinny, blue is the new black, random is the new order.  Saving is the new spending.  And Felix is the new Pedro.  Or Marichal, maybe.