President Obama appointed former senator Chuck Hagel to be his next Secretary of Defense. As with any cabinet appointment, it will have to be approved by the senate. The New York Times dug into the predictable antagonism that will come from Republican senators to his appointment.
Why? Because it turns out they don't like him much. Like, they don't like his attitude.
One quote in particular stood out:
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Q. Rauuuuuul, and Kendrys, followed by Michael Morse, followed by who? Adam Dunn? I'm pretty sure Boog Powell is still alive.
A. Before we wave Morse's code off as too staticky, let's remember from whence we came. They ARE making offers* on him.
How they would configure is not very relevant to whether they will import a cleanup hitter, of one type or another, to play 1B/DH.
Look, if it were a deal for Billy Butler rumored, we wouldn't even be talking about the amputations implied, right? You slough off the guys worse than him, and move on.
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Q. ::BONK:: My head just hit the desk. Dr. D is going to argue in favor of another DH? Perhaps he is collecting a 2013 Mariner-DH Chess Set?
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Q. Is Upton comparable in value to Giancarlo Stanton? Suppose you could give two blue-chippers for Upton, or four for Stanton?
A. No, no, no, NO.
The Yankees have a standing offer. Any five (5) for Felix. That's how I feel about Giancarlo Stanton. (Although, coming from the Mariners, "any five" means something completely different than it means coming from New York.)
We're talking about Upton as a consolation prize.
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Q. Is he a settle?
A. He's been a 5-6 WAR player twice in the last four years, and he's been a 3-WAR player twice. He'd feel like a settle if you hadn't already acquired Kendrys Morales.
Adding bot Upton AND Morales, one right and one left, THAT's not much of a settle. Both of those guys are legit MOTO hitters, and both have MVP-candidate upside, and both are looking very promising to hit that upside.
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=== Slow Down One Second, Guys ===
It's not far-fetched to believe that Rauuuul could be a better hitter, at age 41, than any of the in-house options available to Zduriencik. I was surprised to see that a fair number of age-41 players have hit well, including recently:
Of course, you have a bunch of Ted Williamses, Ty Cobbs, Luke Applings and Honus Wagners who were bona fide stars at age 41. We wouldn't consider these old-timers relevant as it pertains to the question of 21st-century competition at age forty.
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Q. Why 'talking points' and not 'player of the day'?
A. The above phone-cam of Dr. D is the basic reason. It limits him to stream-of-consciousness, assuming that the consciousness part holds up for another half hour. His shtick will be off-the-cuff, with minimal bookwork, and anyhow Holland is a fleeting rumor as opposed to a potential Mariner.
You know your two options. One of them is 'take it.'
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Q. SSI is bullish or bearish?
A. Wayyyyyy bullish.
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Q. What are the Mariners expecting to receive from Mike Napoli?
A. Napoli slugged .630 two years ago. He slugged .470 last year, that being .450 in Arlington and .490 on the road. His lifetime SLG is .507. He walks 70 times per full season and the BB total is going up, not down.
So rotisserie analysts are going to split the difference, splitting it well towards the DWN side, and project him to a 2013 slash line of .250/.350/.500. -ish. With nothing on the line, without being too close to the situation, without emotions involved, a roto champ in St. Louis, MO is going to assume .250/.350/.500 for Napoli next year based on 100-120 games.
The question is: what's that worth? Not to a phantom drone team, but to the 2013-14 Seattle Mariners?
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Q. What are the chances that he'll outperform a 4/$50M contract?
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Let me ask you a question. You'll enjoy it more if you take 10 seconds, come up with a tentative answer, and then proceed before reading my own answer to it.
You know "The Double" by Edgar Martinez in 1995. The one off Jack McDowell that drove in Joey Cora and Ken Griffey Jr. to put the Mariners in the ALCS. The one that is memorialized in stainless steel at Safeco. That double?
Does that double add any real value to Edgar's career, any inherent value to his contribution to the 1995 season, beyond his double on April 30th that came in a 10-1 loss to the White Sox?
In that situation against McDowell, Edgar had about a 10.7% chance* of getting an extra-base hit. The Mariners' first baseman Tino Martinez had about a 10.5% chance. Is that how we should view Edgar's double ... he had a 2-in-1000 better chance than Tino, and the dice fell in?
The question. Does The Double count for more contribution in 1995 than the April 30th double? I mean, beyond linear weights for game situation. Should history acknowledge that Edgar was a hero that day?
