If Vargas suddenly found a 94 MPH fastball, that's what Holland looks like he's gonna be. He's starting with the heat and coming around on Vargas-ness offspeed stuff, and she should be juuust about to hit the afterburners.
I hope the Ms are just posturing about trade cost, if the. I would trade Walker for Holland - Holland's problem is Morrow's problem: too many piped fastballs that leave the yard. Holland is at about the same place Morrow found last year, where that problem goes away, and Safeco will help with that. Like you said, Paxton in a year or two. Even with a reconfigured park, we're never gonna be the hot-air flyball haven that the Rangers play in. The park mitigates some of the HR problem and pitcher improvement should fix the rest.
I would trade one of the Big Three (plus whatever) for Holland, especially if that's part of the puzzle to also get Hamilton and potentially Choo here. We would get crazy competitive in a hurry.
~G
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Q. Why 'talking points' and not 'player of the day'?
A. The above phone-cam of Dr. D is the basic reason. It limits him to stream-of-consciousness, assuming that the consciousness part holds up for another half hour. His shtick will be off-the-cuff, with minimal bookwork, and anyhow Holland is a fleeting rumor as opposed to a potential Mariner.
You know your two options. One of them is 'take it.'
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Q. SSI is bullish or bearish?
A. Wayyyyyy bullish.
Last winter, we posted this absurd article about a young AL lefthander who'd been walking 4-5 men per game. We recommended giving a Dan Haren-type package for him. By a remarkable coink-y-dink, said lefthander went to Washington and ripped off a 21-8, 2.89 season with 207 strikeouts.
Twelve months on, Derek Holland is sitting on a similar perch: Young lefty with :faceslap: spit and polish, but .... already good now, and with ginormous upside lurking just around the corner.
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Q. What's the basic template?
A. Blow-em-away lefty, wild in the zone, offspeed is a work in progress ...
Matt Moore has an extra foot on the fastball and his change is a bit more advanced than Holland's "slider." Holland however has 3.5 pitches and has triangulated himself a bit farther on. Other than that they're very similar.
Clayton Kershaw's fastball has lost a foot and is now equal to Holland's. Don't kid yourself about Holland's fastball -- it is a true overmatch pitch. (The rest of Holland's game, including mechanics, is much inferior, at the moment.)
Gio Gonzalez is more curve ball and less heater. In fact it's hard to think of a young pitcher in this category who is as tilted as much towards "fastball" and as far away from "breaking pitch" as Holland is.
Jon Lester is quite a bit more of a pitcher at this point, with cutter and all the trimmings ... even as a rookie, let's leave him out of this. Also David Price we're going to cut out of this because too Randy Johnson-ish, both with the fastball, the hook and with the delivery.
Scott Kazmir was similar, but was more graceful with a bigger curve ball ...
You know what, the young CC Sabathia was mostly heater, with questionable offspeed stuff in years 1 and 2. Also, CC had a lot in common with Holland as far as the mechanics, command, and other things...
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Q. Holland's mechanics being?
A. Kind of Jeff Fassero-ish, except Fassero came over the top with a forkball. Holland is kinda kludgy, muscles the ball, sidearms it and short-finishes it. Has a bit of a hitch. Every bit of this was true with CC Sabathia.
In fact as I look at it, I'm starting to wonder what differences there are between Holland and the young Sabathia.
On the plus side, Holland keeps his weight low and his nose to the leather. The delivery is not pretty, but he keeps his elbow low and it's a workmanlike stroke. It looks like it will hold up fine. Gio's certainly is not superior.
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Q. Based on the previous POTD's, there's nothing unusual about a young flamethrowing LHP walking 4-5 men a game and still becoming Sabathia or Bedard or Gio Gonzalez?
A. What's unusual would be if they didn't need three years to jell.
Some of these LHP kids walk people; Holland preferred to let them do their worst, which they did. His HR's were way up.
Holland's 84 slider doesn't break much, nothing like Kazmir's or Gio's or ... I can't think of a LHP like him whose slider breaks less. Holland's 75 change curve also reminds of a Hector Noesi situation.
The command is questionable ... Holland's entire game is just in its embryonic stages. He's looking at a rocket ride up from here.
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Q. Why specifically would we believe that Holland will improve his breaking pitches?
A. He has been improving them. And that is the group tendency here. What reason do you have to believe that Jesus Montero will ever hit better than he's doing now?
Jason Vargas' pitches were never going to get better; his challenge was ever-increasing pitchability. But the Holland type of pitcher -- Gio, Kazmir, Matt Moore -- they have fastballs and they gradually add the curveball water to the fastball wine. Sabathia's a classic precedent.
If I were him I wouldn't be fiddle-dee-doo-dah'ing with four pitches. ::shrug:: It delays things.
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Q. Why would Texas be willing to deal such a player?
A. I dunno. Six other star pitchers plus Zack Greinke ... and the players Holland will bring back?
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Q. Flip Holland for Wil Myers?
A. Holland's worth way more than Wil Myers. Unless you think Myers is Mike Trout or Ken Griffey Jr. In which case you should deal Holland for Mike Trout, I guess.
Mark my words. Bring Wil Myers in here and after 80-90 AB's, he'll be a huge question mark in the minds of Seattle bloggers.
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Q. Anything else?
A. How about this heavy Nostradamus action from STATS AOL original Justynius?
Olney reporting Asdrubal to the D'Backs would be part of a 4-team Upton trade, and KC is the third team. I think this means M's and not Rangers since we were already talking with KC and had interest in Upton last winter. The fact that the fourth team doesn't want to be named also makes me lean M's. Sounds like the Tribe is the holdup. Think how much easier this would be if the M's talent evaluators were able to recognize Asdrubal Cabrera has more value than a burnt out Eduardo Perez. :)
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Well, apparently they're also not able to recognize that an ML-year-2 version of a great pitching prospect is preferable to an ML-minus-year-2 version. That, or they REALLY think they've got Felix The Sequel.
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Q. That's quite a contract that Holland's got on him. How often do you get to underpay a TOR starter by 50-75% for a decade. Sweeeeet.
A. With big, fat, hairy team options at $11M in 2017 and 2018. This will be minimum wage, assuming of course that the earth is still standing. Er, hurtling.
The word is that the Mariners are balking at giving up Taijuan Walker for Holland. Funny thing is, HERE is where a "win now" paradigm becomes totally justified. Derek Holland is precisely what you hope James Paxton will be in two years. It's therefore justified to give two of the big three for him -- one for the front half of the hope and one for the back half of the hope.
Derek Holland? Now we're talking.
My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
With brand new #3 and #4 hitters to match anybody's, a #2 behind Felix, suddenly the performances of Montero, Ackley, Seager and Saunders are collateral damage... now what happens if a couple of them actually jell...
The youngsters would provide the club's upside and the Cinderella scenario totally plausible...
He'd wind up with a candy bar named after him :- ) ...
Holland definitely does remind of Vargas physically. Stocky, with shortish limbs, bad baseball face, tucks the shoulder and comes in on a low plane, etc etc ... it just isn't right that Jason doesn't have that kind of octane to work with. Sometimes the universe has a wry sense of humor...
...And M's involvement is primarily to eliminate competition for Hamilton. Hope this is because they're not sure they can sign him and not because they want to give up top prospects to ultimately gain lower salary or fewer years.
is what's causing the issue. He likes Texas, he's grateful to them for giving him the chance and sticking by him after the trade from the Reds, and he'll give them right-of-refusal. For similar dollars/years, he'll stay in Texas.
So we need Texas not to be bidding in order for us to get pole position on this thing. Otherwise we risk the press conference where Hamilton says, "at the end of the day, I just couldn't see myself leaving my home and the family I have built here..." in a Rangers jersey.
I'm fine with us finagling that by assisting the Rangers in getting Upton and Greinke, in order for us to get Hamilton/whoever. If they work out the deal without us, that's fine too - as long as Hamilton ends up in teal. However it best benefits the Mariners.
~G
If the price tag fr Hamilton is really only in the neighborhood of 3 years and 75 mil as Ken Rosenthal claims...wow that's awesome.
I'd almost RATHER it be longer years just to keep him longer...
Agreed with G though...please let the Rangers get Greinke so we can get Hamilton...any way you want, that's the way you need it, anyway you want it...
This reeks of obvious spin in order to get another suitor to crawl back into the negotiations. There are likely 6 teams who would jump at this deal...Rosenthal is being used and he knows it.
Sorry for the technical problems, folks.
A sobering article at Drayer's site. Texas may have been using the Ms to get Upton and then planning to sign both Grienke and Hamilson anyway. http://mynorthwest.com/374/2147132/Texas-could-get-all-three
Maybe that's why momentum for the four-way deal stalled and the Ms became a "speed bump" -- they may have realized that things didn't pass the smell test.