Kansas City

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Emphasis on the below Sizzlers ...

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James Paxton

In our pregame on Friday, we gave these as the keys to his short-term futures price:

• LO:  Paxton finally takes a mulligan, unable to find the strike zone, loses badly
• MID:  He throws strikes, has no pitchability, and sheer stuff produces an Ultra Quality Start
• HI:  He finally gets a whipsaw, and pitchability, going, fanning 8+ (Orcs' fan excerpts tomorrow)

Oddly, he was --- > 65% LO ... 35% HI ... with 0% MID.

He had less command than we've seen in a long time, maybe ever.  This seemed to arise from the home plate ump squeeeeeezing him the first 10-15 pitches, and then Paxton rattled.  A blizzard of 2-0 and 3-1 counts followed.  After two batters, and certainly after the 3rd inning, we took it as a given that Paxton would finally blow up his sparkling ERA.

Like Muhammad Ali playing rope-a-dope for seven rounds, Paxton absorbed the 3-1 welts under his eye and punched back with 97 MPH fastballs right down the pipe.  Along about the third inning, his curve ball became really dangerous -- the first time that's been true since April.  Voila:  a combo of LO and HI.

The result:  6 IP, 1 ER, three pitted-out undershirts, 8 strikeouts ... and Lloyd McClendon calling him "The Glue."  Paxton's the glue already?  That's a little bit like saying "Percy Harvin Or Bust."

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Do keep in mind :- ) James Paxton isn't actually the 2nd BEST rookie SP of all time.  He's undoubtedly outside the top 50, if we are talking baseball history.  

Just in Seattle, we'll give you two recent ones.  Michael Pineda was a tad better overall pitcher as a rookie (though Pineda had nowhere to go from there; he had absolutely no way to get better).  Certainly the rookie Felix was better than Paxton is.  Paxton's ERA is flavor text; you don't predict Paxton's ERA to be below 3.00 in his next 14 starts.

But Paxton is very good already, and he's not supposed to be.  His FIP and xFIP are already comparable to Jeff Samardzija's.  Paxton's early success is in reality a mere seismograph as to what is coming.

Like we sez in Mo' Dawg's thread, James Paxton's value to a franchise is obviously comparable to that of Tim Lincecum, Steven Strasburg, and Justin Verlander after 10-15 starts.  

You tell me why the Seattle blog-o-sphere soft-pedals this guy so much.  They act like if they got excited about Paxton, somebody would type HOMER in all caps at them.  :: shudder ::

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Felix

Still not back on form.  But Saturday, he did get some changeups back to knee level, with bite.  He looked sloppy, like there was play in the steering column, but was not laboring.

Don't forget that ALL starting pitchers, except Randy Johnson, frazz in and out.  Felix's frazzouts tend to be Ultra Quality Starts.

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Q.  Why didn't the M's take 4 out of 4?  This losing of 1-0 and 2-1 games is getting old.

A.  Hey.  Dave Neihaus told me as a kid.  You can't sweep a 4-game series.

Think about it.  Baseball is the game in which you can do things right, and not get rewarded for it.  Something is going to go wrong in 4 games.  The 1977 Mariners used to win 1 of 3, 1 of 4.

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Q.  Is James Paxton now in the top 20 of 3,000 historical pitchers, for best start to a career?

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So the Kansas City Royals had won +10 games IN. A. ROW. before they ran into the 250-HP woodchipper that is Safeco Field.*  And then we demonstrated to The Resurrected John Lackey (TM) that his 2.50 ERA had been fake all along.

You watch the Mariners play, and they don't physically LOOK like they're on pace for 87-91 wins** and a playoff spot.  No way no how.

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TJM sez,

With MLB blacked out locally was forced to watch the Angel's broadcast of this series. Mark Gubicza, one of their color guys and a pretty good sinker-slider righthander before injuries slowed him down, repeatedly made the point during the broadcsts that Ackley, Franklin and Miller all try to cheat to pull the ball at bat after at bat and end up pulling off the ball instead of pulling it. He's completely right. These guys apparently think their value is derived from hitting homers into the right field corner. Why would three guys who came up as middle-infielders think they had to be power hitters in order to stick in the majors? Gubicza said he would never thrown anything inner half to any of them. Throw it away and let them get themselves out. This seems so obvious you wonder why these guys keep doing it.

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Very convincing, Mr. Pulitzer my friend.  Coming from Mark Gubicza you know that is what the Angels pitchers are thinking too, and that's kind of relevant.

We've talked about the "greed for success" that is epidemic with some of these prospects.  But Gubicza said it better.

Let's not be too hard on the M's infrastructure, either, for the attitudes of the Golden Boys.  If Zduriencik & McNamara & co. get blame for these three, then they also get credit for Mike Zunino, whose success effectively is cancelling the failures of the three names given ... I'll give you a SS, a backup SS and a backup 2B :- ) for Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino and Roenis Elias...

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Flavor text:  Mark Gubicza was one of the quintessential 1970's-1980's Royals, the beloved team of the Founding Father.  Those Royals were known for intelligence and gutsiness.  Although the franchise was born only a few years before the M's were, the Kansas City Royals, and Gubicza, were the "anti-Mariners" of the 1970's and 1980's. 

Bill has since (painfully) given up on the Royals as a fan, I believe, "divorcing" them because after 2 decades of genuine pathos, he just couldn't watch any more.  Times change, leadership changes, and we'll cheerfully take the Mariners since Junior :- )

But you see why Gubicza's remarks are poignant to a senior M's watcher.

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Here there be sports/political commentary.  If that's not your cup of tea, there are handy-dandy clickthrough buttons scattered at strategic points around your monitor.  Drive home safely.

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