Oakland

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POTD John Buick

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Tsunami of Bench Strength

Well, a very pleasant lapping of saltwater around our ankles, at least.  John Buick is a legitimate starting catcher in the major leagues, and here we are deploying him as our 30-game backup scrubeenie.

A little perspective ... here are the WAR totals for various Mariner catchers, last FOUR (4) years aggregate.  Following those are Buick's totals:

Catcher WAR
1. Jaso, 2010-2013 2.6
2. Shoppach, 2010-13 0.4
3. Quintero, 2010-13 0.3
4. Gimenez, 2010-13 0.2
5. Olivo, 2010-13 (830 PA's) 0.1
6. Rob Johnson, 2010-13 0.0
7-10. Four guys incl. Zunino, 2010-13 0.0 each
11. Sucre, 2010-13 -0.1
13.  Blanco, 2010-13 -0.3
14. Montero, 2010-13 -0.8
15. Adam Moore, 2010-13 -1.1
ALL MARINER CATCHERS, 2010-13 +1.2 WAR accumulated
John Buick, 2010 +2.7
Buick, 2011 +1.6
Buick, 2012 +0.9
Buick, 2013 +1.6
BUICK, 2010-13 +6.8 WAR accumulated

Fifteen catchers in four years, slap me silly.  Suppose the Seahawks had run through nine quarterbacks in four seasons?

M's Trade Possibilities

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Not that MLB Tonight has any markets cornered on baseball wisdom ... :- ) but it IS a nice lens into the way East Coast media is looking at things.  And that media is hooked into baseball's GM network.  So it's worth a look.

The host asked Joel Sherman a question, and it was the very question that you and I would ask.  "With the recent disappointments in Seattle, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, etc., are their prospects devalued?"

Sherman said, no way.  "I just talked to an executive about that and he said 'The Mariners are DEEP.  They have a lot of kids, and you're going to like SOMEBODY they have.' "  Jon Paul Morosi, in the background, immediately nodded his head like a bobblehead - that's what he hears, too.  Tom Verducci came on and said the same thing.

We've all chipped our teeth about Montero, Ackley, etc. but GM's aren't fans.  They look at Zduriencik's wave of youth objectively.  One GM is excited about Ackley's second half of 2013, another GM thinks Justin Smoak could benefit from coaching, a third GM would give you the moon for Seager, a fourth is hot for Brad Miller.  Every GM makes his own projections, and they're going to land somewhere...

............

Dustin Ackley hit .304/.374/.425 in the second half last year.  

You and I have a visceral reaction to him; we've seen hundreds and hundreds of overmatched at-bats.  We've watched those pitchers pour 91-MPH first-pitch fastballs right down the middle, twice in a row, for 0-2 counts.  We've seen Ackley try to yank outside pitches down the 1B line.  We've watched a Deer In The Headlights ... sent out there, day, after day, after day.

We've got a conditioned response.

M's 2014 Pitching Resources

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Q.  Should we "project" the 2014 M's rotation to be roughly comparable to the one in 2013?

A.  Shannon Drayer, bless her heart, floated the thought that the M's rotation could be -100 runs better next year.  If I'd been her I might have rephrased that thought (if I'd offered it) to say that the M's pitching could be -100 runs better.

The response, in the blog-o-sphere, was that:

  • Taijuan and K-Pax might do okay in 2014
  • If so, this is bound to be better than the 'dreadful' Back of Rotation (BOR) in 2013
  • BUT!  Felix and WBC-san should be presumed to regress significantly
  • So it largely offsets
  • Look at all the rotations recently.  None of them did 100 runs better than the M's 2013 rotation
  • Therefore, if we're being really, really nice about it, -30 runs is where we would pin our hopes
  • Make that -50, -60 runs for the staff as a whole.  MAX
  • Did we mention "MAX"

This seems reasonable enough, if we back up to 10,000 feet on it.

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Q.  10,000 feet?  

Percy Harvin 2013, Randy Moss 2007

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True dat:  data makes your content objectively stronger than your opinion.  But subjectively?  Is it stats that change the world, or is it Hollywood?  How many stats were there in Maureen Dowd's latest column?

Math is great.  Verbal idea transfer is greater.  Proof is critical; persuasion is vital.  Both are important.  One's more important than the other.  We're people, not machines, and proof -- the final word on an issue -- is a lot more uncommon than we tend to realize.

Dr. D knows a few b'wanas who tend to confuse the two things.  ;- ) Knowing the difference is a tremendous competitive advantage.  If you're aware that you're in the arena of persuasion, rather than of proof, you can treat your audience with appropriate respect.

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In 2006, Randy Moss gathered a robust 553 yards of receiving for the Oakland Raiders.  In 2007, with his value discounted by about 70%, he moved to the New England Patriots.

For the Patriots, Moss caught 98 passes for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns.  Brady threw for 50 touchdowns overall, Wes Welker caught 112 (!) passes underneath Moss, and the Patriots went 16-and-0.  It took the Giants' "helmet catch" to prevent a Hollywood movie.

Dr. D is a "Stars and Scrubs" guy in most sports contexts, but especially as it applies to wide receivers who are authentically scary TD threats.  I personally thought that the Patriots' offense, with Moss, was tranformed.  From "great" to whatever is beyond that.  Tom Brady threw for 3500 yards the year before the Patriots got Moss; he threw for 4800 the year they got him.

Beer Revolution, Oakland

If you’re looking for a beer lover’s paradise in the Bay Area, look no further than the heart of Oakland and a cool little bar and bottle shop called Beer Revolution.  With four-dozen rotating beers on tap and a selection of hundreds of others in bottles, you’ll find more than enough to keep you happy.  The atmosphere is one that fits the beer-centric theme and adds to the enjoyment of drinking there.  If you want to try some of the best beers of the world and perhaps even meet someone that shares your passion, check out Beer Revolution

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The David Price Scenario

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Q.  Wouldn't SSI prefer an offseason that improved the hitting?

A.  SSI would prefer an offseason in which the Mariners were sold to somebody who cared.  Preferably the guy who owns the Angels, or the other guy who owns the Rangers.  Then we could go get Stanton, Ellsbury AND Choo and ... baseball would be the new football.

Failing such an offseason, it would be a lot of fun to see a David Price press conference in Seattle, even if his career SLG is a Brendan Ryan-like .083.

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Q.  Is Seattle linked to Price?

A.  More than they were linked to that Cuban guy who signed with the White Sox.  I succeeded in forgetting his name.

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Q.  When was the last team to do good with a great rotation and a dubious offense?

A.  They weren't the last team to do good with only pitching, but the 2012 Tampa Rays are an example:

  • 99 offense (OPS+)
  • 121 pitching (ERA+)
  • David Price was on their team
  • They won 90

Also, the 2012 Oakland A's had a 99 offense and won the AL West.  The 2012 A's had one (1) full time player, that being Josh Reddick.  He hit .240 with a .305 OBP and gap power.

Yes, you could find mucho beisbol equipos with dubious offenses, great pitching, and mucho success.  The Royals, this year, had an 89 offense (!) and yet won 86 games, contending for a lot of the season.

Texas' offense was only 99 this year.  (You do realize that the Mariners' offense was 98, right.)  Baltimore's offense was 98 last year, 2012, when they went to the playoffs.  When the Angels won 100 games in 2008, their offense was 95 OPS+.

The point is, yeah, we're all sick to the gut of boring offenses.  But you don't need a plus offense to contend.

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Q.  What would Price cost, in trade talent?

Jose Abreu

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Cool Papa Bell stays true to his namesake, and glorifies the mysterious slugger who comes out of the mysterious Cuban League.  

Cubans were out of fashion for a while.  After Billy Beane bid $200M, in Oakland A's dollars, for Yoenis Cespedes, and after Yasiel Puig hit .400-and-plenty for the Dodgers, we're guessing that Abreu will be a hot commodity this season.   Estimates are that he'll cost around $60M, setting the record for an international signing -- but still costing much less than an MLB All-Star who is on the open market.

It's possible that 10% or 20% of our readers hadn't noticed that Kendrys Morales is a Cuban.  We recommend that you sort this b-ref.com list by runs scored.

.............

Jose Abreu is a Cuban who has like 300 at-bats in international play, meaning that he's less mysterious than most Cubans.   In the 2013 WBC, for example, Abreu hit .360/.385/.760.  It's 25 at-bats, but it's a typical 25 at-bats for Abreu, internationally.  

His batting lines on the island are hilarious -- in 2010-11 he hit .453/.597/.986 and per 162 games, he racked up 81 home runs and 229 RBI.  HEH!  ... after that, the stats essentially distort; if Conan the Barbarian hits 20 homers in his first month next year, the game then changes around him.  

Point, CounterPoint, Point-Pourri

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POINT:  Ellsbury has benefitted from playing at Fenway.  Safeco would eat him up.

COUNTERPOINT:  Actually, Fenway doesn't help lefties that much, and Ellsbury's HR splits are like 32-33 home and road.  

DR's R/X:  His home splits look like pure noise to me.  Making a long story short:  I wouldn't worry about this one.  If you want to worry, see the next section.

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POINT:   The guy is injury-prone.  He's Franklin Gutierrez waiting to happen.  (This is the view of my man Geoff Baker.)

COUNTERPOINT:  His defenders will tell you that "his entire injury history consists of having Adrian Beltre run him over once, and having a second baseman jump on his shoulder."

DR's R/X:  Nada.  This is a fragile player.  (Though would be interested in G's, and others', take here.)

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