M's Trade Possibilities
"M's are deeeeeep"

.

Not that MLB Tonight has any markets cornered on baseball wisdom ... :- ) but it IS a nice lens into the way East Coast media is looking at things.  And that media is hooked into baseball's GM network.  So it's worth a look.

The host asked Joel Sherman a question, and it was the very question that you and I would ask.  "With the recent disappointments in Seattle, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, etc., are their prospects devalued?"

Sherman said, no way.  "I just talked to an executive about that and he said 'The Mariners are DEEP.  They have a lot of kids, and you're going to like SOMEBODY they have.' "  Jon Paul Morosi, in the background, immediately nodded his head like a bobblehead - that's what he hears, too.  Tom Verducci came on and said the same thing.

We've all chipped our teeth about Montero, Ackley, etc. but GM's aren't fans.  They look at Zduriencik's wave of youth objectively.  One GM is excited about Ackley's second half of 2013, another GM thinks Justin Smoak could benefit from coaching, a third GM would give you the moon for Seager, a fourth is hot for Brad Miller.  Every GM makes his own projections, and they're going to land somewhere...

............

Dustin Ackley hit .304/.374/.425 in the second half last year.  

You and I have a visceral reaction to him; we've seen hundreds and hundreds of overmatched at-bats.  We've watched those pitchers pour 91-MPH first-pitch fastballs right down the middle, twice in a row, for 0-2 counts.  We've seen Ackley try to yank outside pitches down the 1B line.  We've watched a Deer In The Headlights ... sent out there, day, after day, after day.

We've got a conditioned response.

But what does a GM from out of town see?  He sees a #2 overall pick, a kid who got to the bigs quickly, who struggled for 1,200 at-bats ... and starting then, showed you half-a-season's worth of Dustin Pedroia performance.  Ackley's a 2B and a CF.  

Maybe the Mariners baked the cake, and you get to eat it...

..........

From what I read, Brad Miller is almost universally regarded as a 3-4 WAR club controls player going forward.

...........

Mike Zunino, we presume the M's aren't interested in trading ... Kyle Seager, you've got DJ Peterson behind him, and Seager is a 3.5 WAR player with four (4) years of club control left.  Logically, he's a more tantalizing trade target than David Price his ownself.

Michael Saunders, as a second player in a deal ... you've got a young center fielder who has scored two seasons of 108 and 106 OPS+.  He's got 30-homer upside and he's club controls for three (3) more years.  You would think SOME team would see the glass as half-full on Saunders.

...........

Tom Verducci, suggesting trades for the Mariners, proposed

  • Jeff Samardzija from Chicago
  • Brett Anderson from Oakland
  • David Price

Other possibilities, including FA's, are

  • Cliff Lee
  • Matt Garza (3.19, 3.59, and 3.73 xFIP's the last three years in a row)
  • Tanaka
  • Ubaldo Jimenez (3.30 ERA in American League last year)
  • AJ Burnett
  • Colon
  • About five other guys

Tampa is imperiously insisting, If we deign to trade with Seattle, the deal WILL include Taijuan Walker.  

There are enough options there, that you would think you could find some way to keep Taijuan and K-Pax.  If I'm Zduriencik's boss, I'm directing him to find me the best option that does so.

 

 

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Comments

1

Griffey, of all people, praising Smoak today.
"I am a firm believer that Justin Smoak can do it. He just needs to settle down. You have got to remember that he is a switch-hitter and that is double problems. They talk about Chris Davis; he is Chris Davis. I am not trying to put any pressure on him but he has a good eye and he will hit. He's had four hitting coaches in four years and he is trying to figure it out and trying to please everyone. Just settle down and go out there and have some fun. It's not fun when you are struggling, but it is in there. You don't need a guy who hits home runs behind Cano; you just need a guy who hits." – Griffey

2

It's just masked by bad luck and an ill-timed fatigue issue.
Ackley too...his hot second half still did not correct the huge discrepency between what he SHOULD be hitting based on a rational look at his line and what he actually hit. He's a .300 hitter next year - bank it.
I hope we keep Ackley and trade Franklin

3
blissedj's picture

There is one guy I'd love us to acquire. Tyson Ross.
Padres have 10-12 rotation options all the sudden and might be willing to part with Ross for something shiny. Our spring training partner must have their eye on a few guys in our org. Anyhow, if you like Samardzija and remember his 2nd half 2012 take a look at Ross 2nd half 2013. Eerily similar. Ross is on the verge of busting out in 2014, assuming he stays healthy which is always a concern for him. Shouldn't cost nearly as much as any of the other options. Billy Beane lost faith and gave him away. Still scratching my head over that one. Must have been the fuuuunky delivery. Jeff Sullivan weighed in a few months ago:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-national-leagues-most-unhittable-star...

4

Matt, I think that is where we will go. If we go with a Butler deal or bring back Morales, then we will probably get one OF. Ackley has increased value for us then, playing LF AND CF. There are scenarios where we keep 'em both, but those involve a Saunders trade or one for Seager. What would the Dodgers give for a 2B named Seager? How much does that buy down Ethier and add another player. Franklin would do just fine at 3B...and D.J. is nearly here, anyway.
But I think Franklin is peddled. I'm betting on KC or LA.
If we add Beltran (or another bashing RF) then Saunders/Almonte/Ackley is a pretty nice 3 to make 2.

5

I'll disagree with you on the Smoak bad luck, Matt.
In his 4 MLB seasons, his BABIP from the left side is .261, .272, .242 & .298. I don't think we're talking about 4 seasons of bad luck. Heck, last year is likely his outlier year. A .300 BABIP isn't the norm for EVERY hitter. If so, then Ichiro has had a career of good luck.
Perhaps it doesn't describe well, but Smoak's particular batting skillset doesn't include a high BABIP.

7

Following the timing of Matt's excitement about Justin Smoak, I'm inclined to trust him on this one.

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