Q.  The arguments against giving Josh Hamilton a $200M Prince Fielder type contract are ...

A.  ... Too obvious to waste time typing out.  If you're going to play two people at once, like Steve Martin's good cop bad cop in Pink Panther, you might at least ask questions that some people haven't thought of the answer to....

Suffice it to say that in rotisserie baseball, good owners split the difference on guys like Hamilton.  In his MVP year he was worth $39 in 5x5.  So you pay $25 for him.  That's the right thing to do.

Life mirrors art.  You pay 2/3 of what you'd pay for a healthy Josh Hamilton and that's plenty gamble enough.  Dr. D remembers his roto mentor, back in the middle '90's, going "Mark McGwire is the biggest gamble in our game.  If he's healthy, whoever owns him is going to win the league.  But he probably won't be healthy."

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Q.  What's the least you'd pay Hamilton?

A.  Glenn DuPaul makes the extremist case against, capping him at 5/$80M.  DuPaul's an economist and his pencil is nice and sharp.  But pencils as sharp as that sign no free agents, and they figure that's just as well.  

The question is going to be:  if Josh Hamilton could be had at the 7/$120M given to Jayson Werth, Matt Holliday and Carl Crawford - or, analogously, 6/$140M -  would you do that?

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Q.  What are the false arguments against?

A.  I don't buy the idea that LF's and power hitters are overpaid generally, because I don't buy the idea that WAR is the end of the discussion.  And a player pool at a position can have a skewed replacement level ... that's another subject.

As we've shown many times, it's a logical fallacy to go from "The average cost of a WAR, in the past, has been X" --- > to "The correct payment for a WAR, in the future, in every situation, will be X."  No successful businessman, and I mean none I ever met, thinks like that.  You make money not by applying rules, but by finding and exploiting their exceptions.  

And who even says that the goal is to give ownership a rebate check on payroll?  Do you know any teams working with hard salary caps?  This ain't the NFL.  What is the Angels' salary cap?

I don't worry much about Hamilton's age.  You're talking about a Mickey Mantle level of ability.  That magnitude of talent, you figure it's going to be okay at age 35.

There have been outstanding articles written about his plate discipline.  Great, but those don't affect his free agency.  Just 'cause he got over-amp'ed in his walk year doesn't mean he can't hit.

I don't worry much about his drinking.  I'd have a clause in there about opiates.... oh, wait, they have those clauses, don't they.  The way people have connected his "falling off the wagon" (three drinks in a lounge) with the horrors of his past ... um, no.  Let's be fair to the individual as well as to corporate society, and not overstate a problem just because we find it unseemly.

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Q.  What are the good arguments against, in your view, if you're talking 7/$120M or maybe 6/$135M?

A.  I'm not sure I can think of one.  You're looking at 120 games a year, of course, but you've already gotten a rebate check on that.  The arguments against, are going to pretty much be the arguments that sabertistas make against all pricey free agents.  Remember, Albert Pujols' deal was panned mercilessly.  Pujols his ownself.  An argument against Hamilton at 7/$120M may be simply an argument against FA's.

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Q.  What are the good arguments for, in Seattle?

A.  Say he plays 120-130 games and gives you 4.5 to 5.0 WAR, like in 2011-12 ... or 6.0 WAR, like in 2010-12.  Now you play some other outfielder for 30-40 games and collect his WAR, too.  Do you know any teams that have a large collection of young outfielders who could participate in job shares?

People seem to doubt that DH'ing brittle players keep them healthy, because they haven't seen the data.  Moe and Lonnie and I have seen the data:  Edgar Martinez.  You can pay Josh Hamilton and you can DH him.  When the time is right.

Hamilton's physical power is .... well, we're getting obvious again.  If you've seen an HR derby, you know that Hamilton's the guy to transcend Safeco.  That stupid Hit It Here Cafe was built for Junior.  One of these days they'll get that neon arrow blinking.

You don't have your choice of any player in baseball, on which to deploy your $5.023 million per WAR.  You have your choice of only a very few FA's and trade targets.  You're not measuring with sextants; you're measuring with yardsticks.

Josh Hamilton or Justin Upton?  For the same money?  I'll take the left handed player.   Does Upton's 2012 HRTracker show 40 blue dots that lie (way) beyond the Safeco overlay?  How many does it show?

When you pay $35,000 for a car, you don't want be MEEHHHHHH about it.  Only pay that if you are electrified by it.  If the M's are going to make a big commitment to a player, they should be happy with the level of ability.  WAR is not ability, as Chone Figgins and Carlos Silva found out.

Hamilton's sheer talent is the magic sparkle dust here.  A week after you give Justin Upton huge money, you're praying that the park won't hurt him.  A week after you sign Josh Hamilton, you're giddy about his HRTracker overlay.

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Q.  Who's in on Hamilton?

A.  DuPaul's fine article says, nobody:

• The Yankees won’t be in the market, as they are attempting to dip beneath the luxury tax threshold
• The Angels still have Vernon Wells on the books, so I don't see Jerry Dipoto bringing in another aging outfielder long term, and should be more concerned with locking Trout up
• The Dodgers can't be possibly be in the market for Hamilton... unless they're printing money or something
• The Red Sox just freed up a ton of payroll flexibility and have no left fielder, but they're probably going to use that money on Jacoby Ellsbury and starting pitching, not on Hamilton, especially with what just happened with Crawford
• The Nationals want to be a big market club, but they already have Werth on the books
• The Marlins spent crazy money last offseason, but the likelihood of them venturing down that road again is slim 
• The Phillies need outfielders and Ruben Amaro Jr. loves long-term deals, so I guess it's a possibility, but still feels like a long shot
• The Tigers and Giants are possible mystery teams that could maybe make a run at Hamilton

I'm not giving Hamilton $200M, end of story (though a TV cable situation might be a new bedtime story).  Guarantee you I'll take him at some price.  And that price may be higher for the Mariners than for anybody.  Plus it'd be fun.  Baseball's a pastime.