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Q.  Does Carlos Peguero get credit for 2 homers in 10 AB's?  That's like 120 homers per season.

A.  He gets no credit at all.  We already knew that if Carlos got ahold of a pitch, that somebody in a gray uniform was going to get hurt.

Peguero's swing comes through the zone at like a 45-degree tilt from the catcher's point of view.  This leaves him in real trouble on high pitches.  At last sight, that being winter ball, Carlos' EYE ratio had not shown the needed transmogrification and here again, in the Cactus League, he's got (as we check GameDay here ...) 3 K's and 0 BB's in 11 plate appearances.

If a AAA pitcher, or a winter league pitcher, gives him a fastball belt-high or down and in, he's honestly putting his first baseman in danger.  But ML pitchers are precise:  they take fastballs up the ladder, down and away, they "show" fastballs just off the plate, and they change speeds.  

He's not going to get the belt-high heaters, and hanging curve balls, that he needs.  Peguero looks so scary at the plate that it ratchets up the pitcher's sense of danger.  The pitchers don't get careless with Peguero the way they might with Miguel Olivo.

Carlos' problems are similar to what Michael Saunders' have been.  It says here that his swing is fatally flawed.  Here's hoping.

Picture the 2011 Michael Saunders.  Now picture him 9 feet tall, weighing 525 pounds, like Mr. Hyde in Van Helsing.  That is the essential performance situation you've got with Carlos Peguero.

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Q.  What would have to happen, in order for Peguero's PWR to translate to the majors?

A.  I don't know.  

The holes in his strike zone -- specifically, anything above the belt, anything low-away, anything offspeed outside, and anything that is even a little bit off the plate away -- are much larger than even what would allow a conversation.

If he could cover the cold zones better, maybe he could get into a Dave Kingman / Mark Reynolds type mistake-hitting career.  I dunno how you do that with his swing shape - and yet, the swing shape is a big part of why his power is comparable to that of a pneumatic jackhammer.  

I'm lost.

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Q.  So the point of this post is what?

A.  That you can tell the difference, when we're talking about correctable flaws such as Trayvon Robinson's?  :- )

To make sure that the 2012 rookie crop of lurkers can grok that SSI is not about hyping players?

So that we can wonder about why he got so many Safeco at-bats despite the fatal flaws being so obvious?  Peguero's a cool player.  Wish we could see a path to stardom.  Can't. 

The M's have a lot of players to pick from.  They have to simplify at some point.

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Q.  What if you're wrong?

A.  If Carlos Peguero jelled AT ALL, he would be a 35-50 homer player in the big leagues.  There's no in-between with an Adam Dunn like this.  You tell me who hits the ball harder.  Even Ryan Howard doesn't hit the ball any harder than Peguero does.

If Peguero is hitting .250/.300/.550 at the end of the season, any season, and somebody wants to throw this post in my face :- ) then I'll chew with gusto.  From here to as far as the eye can see.  Would be a tasty time to be wrong.