Q. Can a baseball offense be too patient?
A. It can, yes. If a hitter goes up to the plate, the bat glued to his shoulder, hoping for a walk, he's quickly going to be out of the majors.
Michael Saunders was a case in point -- in April he had 0-2 counts in 40% of his AB's, or something.
My man Earl wrote about this: patience is seeking your pitch, not letting three pitches go by to start an AB. He scoffed at hitters who "go up there with the bats glued to their shoulders."
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Q. Was the Mariners' April offense too patient?
A. It looks to me like it was.
Throughout April, SSI kept a "hustle board" -- one that counted the pitches the M's saw. As the "hustle board" went staggeringly the M's way, their offense hit more amazing depths.
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Q. Can you prove statistically their offense was, or was not, too patient?
A. Of course you can't.
It can't be proven statistically either way. For example, what are the "3rd-order" batting results for April, for May ... or in the 26 games since Detroit, as Geoff Baker cut the splits?
Baseball Prospectus uses "third-order" run differential and W/L record to normalize for strength of opposition. Has anybody in this debate done that? Of course not.
If you took the 2010 ERA's of the enemy pitchers the last 26 games, would that capture it? Of course not. If you took their 2011 xFIP's, would that capture how well each pitcher was throwing that day? Of course not.
Has anybody normalized for Carlos Peguero's learning curve? In place of Milton Bradley's flailing away? ... there are 100 real-life variables here you're not going to capture.
It's not an issue of "sample size" (sic). It's that you aren't even beginning to capture the variables, if you think you can measure the quality of the M's pre-Detroit offense vs. the quality of their offense after.
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It's tempting to throw a "he's just wrong" criticism out there, without respect for the complexity of the problem. When we do, it's a fatal flaw.
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Q. What does Eric Wedge mean by a quality at-bat?
A. As so often, the man who understands the subject perfectly --- > refuses to explain it to us:
"A good AB is going up there ready to hit,'' Wedge said. "When you get a pitch, you don't miss it. I've got nothing against it (taking a walk). But that's not the way you're going to win. That's going to be a part of it.''
"Most of them are just phrases,'' Wedge said. "People don't know what the hell they're talking about when they say those things. You know what I mean? If I say "put up a good at-bat' do you know what that means? Not 'you' just in general. If I say 'make a good out' you've got to know what that means. Or 'make a tough out' you've got to know what that means.
"It's a fine line and that's why it's so hard to hit,'' Wedge said. "You can't look for the perfect pitch because you're probably not going to get it. If you do get it, you'd better not miss it. But you've got to be up there ready to hit. If they make a mistake, don't miss it. You take what they give you. But you have to be ready to hit. It's too fast, it's too quick, to think and react. You have to be up there ready to go.''
It's impossible to learn much from that, other than that Wedge means what he says.
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Q. Can SSI explain "a professional at-bat" to us?
A. Glad to. You always seem to ask the questions I'm ready for.
Dr. D has never hit in a pro game, but he has listened to people who have, and Dr. D has done analogous things in other sports, such as sparring in aikido.
A "professional at-bat" brings an awareness of what that day's pitcher is likely to do. It prepares to exploit those particular pitches that a batter is likely to receive that day.
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Dave Valle was reciting a conversation with Ted Williams... something like "Okay, Joe Shalbotnik will throw me about 15 pitches tonight. He's throw about 4 fastballs, 5 curves, 3 sliders and 3 changeups."
"The sliders and changeups he can't throw for strikes. The fastballs, he's pretty good with those. But his curve is lousy, and he hangs two or three a game."
"Why WOULDN'T I go up there looking curve tonight?"
That kind of thing.
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Q. So professional defense -- as hitting is defense -- involves an understanding of what that day's offense (pitching) is going to do?
A. Right. And in particular, what mistakes are reasonably going to be made by that offense.
A "professional at-bat" is about organizing your thinking. As opposed to "see ball hit ball" reaction.
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In aikido randori, let's say Brown Belt Joe has real quick hands and doesn't commit much when he boxes. He flicks punches out there and retreats. Am I going to be able to execute a Steven Seagal spin-throw? Not realistically.
But Brown Belt Joe may have a slow front kick! (I know a guy just like this).
So my thinking is organized, and I have a plan: Just bat away the punches, wait for a front kick, and trap it. Fight over.
This works against Brown Belt Joe, and against him only.
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If Teddy Ballgame got his hanging curve ball, he wasn't going to leave it on the warning track!
Michael Saunders might go up there in a state of confusion -- get a hanging curve -- and his eyes get big just a little too late, you know? And, deciding on it just a little late, he leaves it on the warning track.
Teddy -- or ARod, or Texeira -- get the pitch they want, they are loading up as the pitcher releasesthe ball. And there's your difference. Two HR's, vs two pitches caught on the warning track.
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In order to trap a kick from Brown Belt Joe, I've got to have visualized that kick before the fight starts, and my own counter to it, all in real time. You feel me?
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Q. Are the Mariners in fact putting more aggressive, professional AB's out there?
A. I couldn't guarantee you. Am not sure. I know that Peguero, Ryan, and Olivo are going up there ready to do something with their pitches.
Needless to say, some batters -- Smoak, Edgar, Ackley -- go up ready to exploit their pitches, but walk a lot anyway. There are reasons for that too.
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Q. So it's a question of reducing options, right...
A. Smoak, Edgar, and Ackley won't swing at balls, so that's one thing. But also, a pro at-bat reduces the options the pitcher has. Teddy's example, he'd reduced the pitcher's options to a curve up and a fastball in a certain location.
Our aiki example, we'd reduced the options to the front kick, while we sort of fight off the other options. But you better be sure to trap that kick when he throws it! He might knock you out if you let things drag on...
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A guy like Michael Saunders, he is going up there probably battling against all 5 pitches. It's confusing and it can't be done.
This is what Wedge is talking about: simplify, cut down the options, and that once or twice a game when you get your shot MAKE SURE YOU SQUARE IT UP. The fight is too dangerous not to end it when you get your chance.
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Q. Were the Mariners not ready to do something with their pitches, before Detroit?
A. I'm not sure. I hadn't noticed it at the time.
I would suggest that Eric Wedge is a legit authority on this, and that we should take his word for it?
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You know, Jered Weaver is never going to give you a high fastball, out-and-over. What is he going to give you? If I'm Michael Saunders, I ask Eric Wedge's opinion on that. (OK, maybe Chambliss'.)
Why wouldn't I? And it reinforces that I'm on the same sheet of music with him.
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Q. Anything else?
A. Remember that when you change, and improve, your approach, sometimes your results go backward for a while.
If a PGA pro fixes your swing, you will probably shoot higher the next few rounds. Right?
Whether the M's offense has been better since May 1, or since Detroit, or whatever -- they've got to learn to hit. Even if the "pro AB" approach had not been productive in the first month, it is still the right way to play baseball. You've got to beat your opponent, not hope he loses.
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They have been 16-10 since Detroit, and if not for League, they'd a been 20-6. I'm enjoying the wins, and enjoying the hard RBI's.
They are playing better. They need to keep playing better.
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My $0.02,
Jeff
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