Not that other letters don't measure up, of course. :- ) MC and DOV discussions are always a pleasure - adult, intelligent, informative. Just a few letters that provoked us this afternoon...
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=== Lonnie ===
I think that one important thing that may be overlooked is the venues that Fister has plyed his trade at so far in '09. The AL does not have an equivalent to Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Salt Lake, etc.
Pitching at home at the Safe is a little different than pitching at Tacoma, but not a whole lot. Still though, those away games at real launchpads will hurt any pitchers stats, especially w/r/t homeruns given up.
I think I need to delve a bit into the game by game stuff and put Fister under the scope at the MC.
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KIBITZ: Now that we've seen a well-coached pitching staff at Safeco, with a fast OF, our eyes are more opened to what context can do.
The entire staff, but notably Jarrod Washburn, has provided a 100+ game visual aid as to what the park (and defense) can do for a pitcher who has an idea out there.
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Bill Kreuger's first reaction on Doug Fister: here's a guy who will be a better pitcher in the major leagues than in the minor leagues.
This does sometimes occur, especially with "Tommy John Family" pitchers who don't strike people out -- but who do absolutely everything else right (pickoff move, no homers, no walks, etc.) It takes a lot of singles to beat a pitcher.
A pitcher like this might get to the majors and suddenly start seeing a bunch of groundball hits turned into outs. And he might see umps start buying into his feather-touch command. And he might not be pitching in joke ballparks where pop flies to LF clear the fence.
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Till Lonnie mentioned, it hadn't hit me how MANY extreme hitters' parks there are in the PCL, since Cheney isn't one. Huh.
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=== OKDan ===
Links us up to a Zduriencik quote as to whether Ryan Braun was going to be considered for 3B in Milwaukee. Dan points out this might be analogous to Ackley's situation, though Braun moved to an easier position and Ackley would be moving to a harder one.
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KIBITZ: Ackley is quoted on Baker's site as feeling like he should play the outfield. That quote, under the circumstances, is nothing to sneeze at...
On the other hand, the Mariners have talked about not wanting to move Branyan to 3B "while he's hot." And the Hannahan move to SS was flatly amazing.
So perhaps there's room for the M's to consider Branyan at 3B as part of a rotation in 2010 -- Tui there some, and Branyan there a certain amount, to get Carp into the lineup, or somesuch.
Let's hope. :- ) ... Capt Jack and Wakamatsu are so different from Melvin and Hargrove and Armstrong, that it's hard to get adjusted.
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=== Spectator ===
... when Ryan Anderson and Clint Nageotte hit the rotation we won't have room for that Meche guy. :-)
Sorry, in fun. Actually, although it doesn't maximize his value, Ackley is accomplished at first base. Ichiro in his late 30s might be used differently. No one is locked into the DH role. Seems to me like there are enough moving parts.
I think you're right that Ackley would be Biggio-ish ("Biggionic?") at 2b, but Z doesn't seem to want to go there, and I think that's fine -- mainline the guy's bat into the lineup 'cause that's where it's needed.
Also a quibble: Ackley has better wheels than most of your comps. 19-of-25 SB in 68 games not by accident. Watch the video.
A lefty Edgar with speed? What is that if not a poor man's Gwynn? Then I looked at Abreu's stats in his prime. Whoa. I had no idea he ran off a string of seasons like that without a whiff of an MVP or superstardom.
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KIBITZ: And what is super cool, is seeing a GM who believes in traffic jams SO MUCH that he is willing to go out and ADD to a traffic jam.
Sandy pointed out the Angels' willingness to add Abreu to a 4-OF situation. The fact is that attrition is going to occur. Some GM's and managers are willing to manage a clubhouse full of players who don't like their playing time: LA, Oakland, and Texas are clubs very willing to do this.
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I hadn't realized that Ackley was a SB threat. What's your estimate of his SB potential in the bigs, Spec?
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Yeah, for some reason Abreu has been wayyyyyy underrated. From 1999-2002, he was pretty much Ichiro plus 15-20 home runs. What would we think of Ichiro then?
This last winter, D-O-V was clamoring for 1) Dunn and then 2) Bobby Abreu. The Abreu idea, around the neighborhood, was waved off with scorn because Abreu makes money and isn't a plus defender.
Here he is, giving the Angels a .404 OBP with gap power. Wouldn't that have been nice in LF? But the craze about defense turned it into a virtual absolute.
Abreu's HOF Standards and HOF Monitor scores have him as being in the Hall of Fame already. We might take a second and reflect on what it was, that caused us to think that a backup, #4 outfielder was a better player than a (fringe) Hall of Famer. Whatever it was that caused us to think that, should be adjusted.
A .404 OBP is a big deal. And this offense was a tragedy. Next time, let's get a few .400 OBP's in there. :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
Considering the roster turnover this year, Yuni and Wash out, and Wilson, Snell, and French in, adding Abreu for $5M would have been in the noise. Then again, if you were Abreu, would you rather play for the favorites to win the West or the team that lost 101 games? The point is to add .400 OBP players when you can. It would be nice to have people on base when Branyan hits a bomb.
Abreu was really good in his prime, although he was overrated defensively and played in that bandbox in the NL where Ibanez is hitting 90 HRs this season.
Even so, he would have been a huge upgrade over Griffey this year. I really think the DH position was the big mistake in '09, and not pursuing Swisher for LF when he was available for cheap. How much better does our lineup look with a guy like Dunn plugged in there at DH, with Swisher as a LF? The playoff race would probably look a lot different right now..
In '10 I think you'll see a guy like Thome, Delgado, or Abreu brought over for DH. I prefer a guy with LH HR power like Thome personally, even with the age.
Fister's AAA HRs:
Home - 1.25 HR/9
Away - 0.18 HR/9
Its probably one of those short term flukish things.
Although Abreu was maybe the player most shocked by the market last winter ... he made $15-16 per year for the Yankees the last two years, was wanting that again for 3 years ... and instead got a 1-year, $5M deal!
It says here that Abreu is a better offensive bet for 2010-11 than Branyan is, and was a better bet coming into this year than Branyan is now, so .... point is, M's coulda landed him for Jack Wilson money...
The budget was tight, we all realize. But if it's THAT tight, what were they doing phoning Adam Dunn last winter...
Give us Dunn at DH and Swisher or Abreu at LF and we'd have had an offense. Along with that #1 ERA, the M's would have won 90 games plus.
But whatever happens, Griffey and Sweeney helped Wok turn the clubhouse around, and that was job one. Now on to the rest of the roster remake.
... though the mainframe says that Fister will definitely give up his share of dings.
All it takes is for him to miss with a fastball by eight inches. Literally. Many nights, many AB's, he only has to miss by the width of a glove to give up an easy HR.
If there's one thing I'm sure of, it's that Fister's primary weakness will be home runs. He's not going to get himself into that many long innings, I don't think...he's very pitch-efficient and you're not getting crooked numbers off of him unless by chance you happen to have a couple of guys on base when he makes one of his mistakes, but yes...he will probably always have some moderate gopheritis.
My take (at the time) on Abreu was that he'd likely cost too much, and likely cost too many years. Signing a 1-year for 5-million ... didn't see that coming, and if he comes to Seattle for THAT, of course you'd want him, (knowing how the season turned out for Endy and Wlad, especially).
Problem is, I don't think there was a 1 in a billion chance that Abreu would've come to Seattle for anything remotely close to his Angel contract. Seattle was coming off a 61-win season. There was NOTHING remotely attractive to Seattle to a guy nearing the end of his career, who watched his career team win the series AFTER he left -- and who got to fold in the first round with the Yankees twice.
I don't think Seattle had ANY shot at Abreu for anything less than what Ibanez got with Philly, (3 years 30 or so). Dunn, with a lot more years left, was more willing to simply take the most cash he could get, and play for the worst team in baseball. (Though, in truth, Washington did a very respectable job of assembling a bat-first roster. Back in April, they had the highest scoring and most-losing team in the NL *SIMULTANEOUSLY*.)
I will, however, stand by my position that it is IMPOSSIBLE to improve your defense and get everyone to buy into said improvement while simultaneously going out and adding suspect gloves to your lineup.
If KC tells its fans, "We are committed to assembling the most exciting OFFENSE we can in 2009!" Fans might perk up and think about buying tickets. But, if you go out and acquire Willie Bloomquist, Yuni Betancourt, and begin discussions with Richie Sexson and Brad Wilkerson ... not only will you guarantee a horrid offense ... you will specifically make your fan base dispise you. And not in a passing way. They will *FOREVER* know with certainty that every word you utter is a bald faced lie.
Me? I have no doubt that 90% (or more) of the 2009 turn-around for the Ms was due to the defensive improvements and change in mindset.
2008: Team FIP = 4.59; -- 2009 Team FIP = 4.52 (pitchers improved ERA by 0.07)
2008: Team ERA = 4.73; -- 2009 Team ERA = 3.96 (defense improved ERA by 0.69)
Yes, Virginia, for 2009, the improvement in run prevention was LITERALLY 10 times more attributable to the defense than to the pitching.
But sometimes I wonder if we fans don't overestimate the standings, when talking about whether a player can be signed. ... the M's signed Russell Branyan, and all of the same arguments could be used: he's taking peanuts, why wouldn't he want to play for a winner, etc.
The same was true for Beltre and Sexson in their days... Washburn ... etc.
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In real life you recruit a guy by talking to him sweet, and showing him the jack. It's more about his having a lot of fun on the recruiting trip than anything else.
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It's possible that Abreu would have passed up 1/$8 or 2/$16 for the Angels' 1/$5 deal, but it's possible he wouldn't have, too.
One thing we can tell ya: Adam Dunn would have taken 5/$60M from the M's over 2/20 from the Washington Nationals...
In point of fact, Bavasi blasted the competition by many millions of dollars and guaranteed years on all three of those players.
Branyan came to Seattle for ONE reason. It was likely the ONLY team in all of baseball that told Branyan he'd get a legitimate shot at being a FULL TIME PLAYER.
Sexson was signed at age 30. Beltre at age 26.
Abreu is 35. So, no. The same arguements don't even remotely hold true. If a player thinks his career is winding down at 30, there is something very, very, very wrong.
As for Washburn ... he ALREADY has his WS ring. He was the ACE of a staff that won a world series, (though he utterly tanked himself in that series). Nonetheless, he already had his ring, AND he was only 31 when he arrived in Seattle.
My entire point was that players motivations CHANGE with time ... which is why I specifically noted that Dunn would've been a different case. But Sean Casey doesn't sign on to be a bench player for $800K if he's going to KC. He does, if he can play for Boston in a season where a WS trip seems likely.
This doesn't mean EVERY player has the same motivations. But, the better the player, the more choice and control he has over his ultimate destination.