.

The Arizona Fall League jams players from 30 ML franchises into an itty-bitty 6-team Volkswagen.  Under the circumstances, we'd expect a few sharp elbows jabbed neck-high.  And under the M's 'get more athletic' circumstances, we'd be forgiven if we expected the seven draftees to be fresh off American's Ninja Warriors.  

Alas, the focus is on PD even more than it is on 5-tool skillsets.   Either way, the Mariners' horse in the race -- the Peoria Javelinas -- is 1-2 and facing a "magic number" of, um, 28.

A glance at DiPoto's DeCisions:

.

1.  James Paxton.  This is NOT the "marginal choice" that Bill James constantly reminds us about.  Direct our analytical probosci toward the decisions that would differ; here, you would see either 28, or 29, or 30 of the ML franchises that would send K-Pax to Arizona.  Everybody goin' ta send K-Pax down.  Nothin' to see here.

The more interesting question is, do they have an Edgar down there who will --- > tighten up James' backstroke and keep him ahead in the count? If you're talking about making big $$$ fast on player development, here you go, amigo.  A single player who will make your name all by himself.

... Paxton breezed through his first 3-IP start, no problem.  But the real question is a pitching stroke that will leave the ball in the strike zone.

.

2.  Tyler O'Neill.  Last year, he hit 32 bombs in ... wait for it ... 108 games.  That's 50 in a full season, kiddies.  According to Jason Churchill, "zero" of them had to do with the park or league.  (Wait, lemme check my style book:  "zero" is supposed to be all caps at PI.)  He also posted a Brandon Wood-like EYE ratio of 29:137, so we'll see what lessons the Angels' suits have learned with a human-4'-diameter-windfan type of player.

Before the season, BaseballHQ had said:

.

Strong, stocky OF who missed time with broken hand after punching wall.

Combines level swing with bat speed and pitch recog, projects to average pop (had hit 13 HR's in 14 - Dr D)

Likes to swing early in count and could be more patient.

Runs well underway (i.e. has no first step - Dr. D), but lacks range in OF and has only avg arm

.

There you go again, amig-O.  A low-minors guy with 40-homer power, who is just goin' out and attackin' first pitch fastball.  If that ain't a player development thingie, I dunno what is. ... O'Neill has at least one homer already, natch.

.

3 Tony Zych out, Ryan Horstman In.  One of the things you use the AFL for, is as a "swing vote" on a "bubble" reliever.  Dr. D finds himself hoping that this swapout means that --- > Tony Zych already has the inside track for 2015.

Horstman is a lefty who was drafted in 2013, managed to stay on the field for about one dozen innings each year, and has detonated 30 of 88 batters with strikeouts.  Supposedly he's got 93 MPH and a wipeout hook, making him a fearsome LOOGY in the "worst" (HEH!) case scenario.  His presence in the AFL indicates that the M's have stapled a yellow sticky note to his forehead.  For future attention, as in.

.

4.  David Rollins is going down too.  Zduriencik invested a yearlong 25-man roster spot to keep him ... well, a half-year-long slot ... and Jerry DiPoto rakes in the stack of chips.  Intriguing that JeDi wants to see him in the AFL.  SSI has written a few things on Mr. Rollins.  If you are stalling before work:

Here is a Dr. D piece emphasizing Rollins' fastball.

Here is an earlier, more comprehensive piece "What is compelling about David Rollins?"

In the great tradition of Matt Thornton, he's a physically-talented lefty who's got a lot of this-n-that to figure out.  Yes, we'd call him a "physical" lefty.  Drive home safely.

.

5.  D.J. Petersen is going.  Sometimes you use the AFL for a reclamation project.  Well, if not "reclamation" ... you'll have to admit, at least, that D.J. is not quite Kris Bryant any more.  Cardinal Way Handbook, do yer stuff.

... Hey, guess it already did.  First two games, the kid is 4-for-8 with two jacks.

.

6.  Tyler Smith, SS, Switch-Hitter.  Moe Dawg's Great White OBP Hope will be playing against the hottest prospects in the minors.  Sabermetrics consists of the seminal idea that you pay attention to how your players perform, as opposed to what the scouts are saying about them.  In 2015, at age 23-24, Smith posted a .361 OBP in the Southern League.  Here's a classic "overachiever" getting an invite to the bright lights of the AFL, and in a position to do himself a flavor.  

Eyes slideways.  He's 4-for-8 and his EYE ratio is Infinity.  Tell me something, Matt:  why CAN'T you divide by zero?  3:0 is better than 2:0.  If math profs can make imaginary numbers i and Felix Hernandez can throw imaginary changeups, I don't see the problem.

.

7.  Paul Fry is the last pitcher here.  Fry is a short-ish lefty who just now won the org Pitcher of the Year.  He's "promoted" to the AFL despite a whoppin' 80 innings.

Following the 2014 season, as a wild lefty in high-A Clinton, Fry wasn't even on HQ's minor league radar.  But in 2015, he fanned 113 batters (!) in 80 innings with a mere 24 walks and 4 homers.  He throws tons and tons of ground balls, nearing 2.0 on the gb/fb ratio scale, ... so.

At Mariner Brainstorm a couple of years ago, Spec had liked Fry as a potential 'lefty strikeout ace.'  

Here's a very well-done 27OutsBaseball article from midseason.  It's long on personal interest and short on F/X, but DiPoto is into "makeup" over talent so there y'go amig-O.

Peoria vs. Desert Dogs Oct. 19th,

Dr D