Oscar Prediction: Which film will win the Best Picture Academy Award?
With just weeks to go now until the 85th Annual Academy Awards, I'm finally beginning to get a clear picture of the film I believe will win the coveted Best Picture Oscar. Trust me when I say I've agonized over my personal choices, because honestly, 2012 was a great year for film in general. Each of the Best Picture nominees is an outstanding cinematic achievement. But I'm putting my personal feelings aside now, and trying to look at the cold hard facts on this one.
With the Academy Awards, you want to look at several different factors, including history. And history might get thrown right out the window on February 24, 2013. Why? Because I believe that Ben Affleck's CIA thriller Argo is going to take the top prize at this year's Oscars. There. I said it. You read it. I can't take this back.
Does Argo have some sort of inside track? Yes. The little film that could continued to build major momentum throughout this awards' season, taking several notable top honors. Couple that with the feeling that Ben Affleck was snubbed horribly when he didn't receive a Best Director Academy Award nomination, and you've got a recipe for a win.
Several months ago, one of my favorite movie critics, Rolling Stone magazine's Peter Travers, suggested that he believed Argo would, in fact, take the Best Picture Academy Award. At the time, I found myself thinking well, the theory is interesting, but really? I just didn't think it was possible, given that heavy hitters like Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook (and Les Miserables, lest you think I forgot that one) were still coming. He said in October of 2012 that Argo "...is up front because it's basically Hollywood saves the world" and added that Ben Affleck "...made an audience-pleasing, critic-pleasing movie."
As I sat listening to the Gold Derby podcast, I found myself nodding furiously, and hoping that Peter Travers was right. I loved Argo. I loved every single thing about Argo. Normally I find fault with even the most well-crafted films (it really is an annoying habit), but with Argo, I got swept away by the incredible story.
But how on earth could Argo possibly compete with Lincoln? The sweeping Steven Spielberg film garnered 12 Academy Awards nominations for crying out loud. It's a wonderful film that presents a sympathetic portrait of one of the greatest men in history during a time when every single quality he possessed was needed. And, most importantly, Spielberg himself got a Best Director nomination. Need I remind you again that Ben Affleck did not? It's important. Let's look briefly at a little Oscar history, shall we?
In more than 80 years of Oscar history, only three films have ever won Best Picture if the director wasn't nominated. That includes Driving Miss Daisy (1989), directed by Bruce Beresford, 1929's Wings (no nomination for director William A. Wellman) and 1932's Grand Hotel, which won despite the fact that director Edmund Goulding did not get a nomination. So, to summarize: It has happened before, but it sure doesn't happen often. Can Argo become only the fourth movie to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination?
It seems Hollywood, at least, is really rooting for that to happen. Argo has shocked and surprised its way through awards season, winning best drama and best director awards at the Golden Globes last month. Argo also won the top film awards from both the Producers Guild of America and, perhaps even more importantly, the Screen Actors Guild. I was stunned when Argo took the best ensemble cast award (essentially it's SAG's best picture honor). With incredible ensemble casts like those of Lincoln and certainly Silver Linings Playbook, it was truly a huge win.
Now, as I write this, the news comes that Ben Affleck has won the coveted Directors Guild of America award. That was the win I was waiting for before I decided to come forth with my (not-so-bold-anymore) prediction. I'd say at this point, Argo is a major frontrunner to win at the Oscars. Congratulations to Affleck on the DGA award. Perhaps being snubbed by the Academy has worked in his favor? Gee, let's state the obvious, shall we?
2012 was an outstanding year for film. We are fortunate, fellow movie fans, to have such high quality offerings. It's hard not to argue that each of the Best Picture Oscar contenders deserves the win, particularly Lincoln and (in my opinion) Django Unchained. I believe, looking at the momentum, not the history of the Academy Awards, that Argo will be victorious on Oscar night. No matter what happens, Ben Affleck is a force to be reckoned with in the film industry, and if he keeps making movies like Argo, he will be for decades to come.
Do you agree with me that Argo might just walk away with the biggest prize in cinema? Why, or why not? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Photos courtesy of EW.com and The Hollywood Reporter