Jarrod Dyson Qualifying Offer
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Here was a Sully chat snippet that made Dr. D scratch his head:
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Cary: Dave said in a chat that there’s no way the Mariners offer Dyson a QO. Why would that be a no brainer, if they thought he’ll be worth ~2.5 wins next year? The same thought applies to anyone with that value. Isn’t a one year deal at roughly market value either A) worth it on its own, or B) worth the upside of getting a pick?
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: Dyson doesn’t have the skillset that the market actually values at 2.5 or 3.5 wins or whatever. As a defense and baserunning player, he’s still a guy whose market value is suppressed, relative to a stronger bat
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Frankly, at age 32 it hadn't hit me that the Mariners COULD give Dyson a qualifying offer. That has hit $18M now for 1 year, or thereabouts. (Simplified) If you extend it and the player declines, you get a comp pick at the end of the 1st round. As we have seen, a pick like that is worth approximately four Sonny Grays.
With his 83 OPS+ and his wheels, Dyson's got 2.0 WAR in 325 at-bats this year, compared to 3.1 last year in 337 at-bats. Speed-burner skills age well. Fangraphs is valuing WAR (10 runs) at $8.1M each right now, so $18M+ would require 2.5 WAR to break even. Merely in terms of $-per-FA, and of course you can't buy good FA's for one year commitments.
Dyson is a no-brainer as far as 2.5 WAR for 2018 at market value, but comes with the following bonuses:
√ No need to commit 7 years, or 15 for that matter. Commit 1 year
√ Dipoto places 1.x bonus value on speed OF's in Safeco where x = what, about .5
√ M's haven't had CF solidified since a good year or two by Gutierrez
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It's not clear to me whether Jarrod Dyson would accept 1 year, $18M. I remember Michael Bourn getting 4 x $12M back in 2012, Coco Crisp getting 2 x $12M in 2014 just to play defense, and a lot of deals like that, back when we WANTED a Jarrod Dyson type. Dexter Fowler just signed a 5 x $17M deal at age 31 with St. Louis.
:: shrug :: If Dipoto needs to save $18M, certainly Guillermo Heredia can play center field for him. Because of Heredia, it would be a relatively painless way to amputate an arm off the 2018 budget. Players who come off the books this winter:
- $14M Iwakuma
- $11M Gallardo
- $7M Smyly
- $6M Valencia
- $5M Espinosa (?!)
- $5M Ruiz
- $5M Leonydas
- ($3M Dyson)
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Still will be curious to see whether Dipoto hits the market now for a Maniger swap-in.
BABVA,
Dr D