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Here was a Sully chat snippet that made Dr. D scratch his head:
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Cary: Dave said in a chat that there’s no way the Mariners offer Dyson a QO. Why would that be a no brainer, if they thought he’ll be worth ~2.5 wins next year? The same thought applies to anyone with that value. Isn’t a one year deal at roughly market value either A) worth it on its own, or B) worth the upside of getting a pick?
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: Dyson doesn’t have the skillset that the market actually values at 2.5 or 3.5 wins or whatever. As a defense and baserunning player, he’s still a guy whose market value is suppressed, relative to a stronger bat
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Frankly, at age 32 it hadn't hit me that the Mariners COULD give Dyson a qualifying offer. That has hit $18M now for 1 year, or thereabouts. (Simplified) If you extend it and the player declines, you get a comp pick at the end of the 1st round. As we have seen, a pick like that is worth approximately four Sonny Grays.
With his 83 OPS+ and his wheels, Dyson's got 2.0 WAR in 325 at-bats this year, compared to 3.1 last year in 337 at-bats. Speed-burner skills age well. Fangraphs is valuing WAR (10 runs) at $8.1M each right now, so $18M+ would require 2.5 WAR to break even. Merely in terms of $-per-FA, and of course you can't buy good FA's for one year commitments.
Dyson is a no-brainer as far as 2.5 WAR for 2018 at market value, but comes with the following bonuses:
√ No need to commit 7 years, or 15 for that matter. Commit 1 year
√ Dipoto places 1.x bonus value on speed OF's in Safeco where x = what, about .5
√ M's haven't had CF solidified since a good year or two by Gutierrez
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It's not clear to me whether Jarrod Dyson would accept 1 year, $18M. I remember Michael Bourn getting 4 x $12M back in 2012, Coco Crisp getting 2 x $12M in 2014 just to play defense, and a lot of deals like that, back when we WANTED a Jarrod Dyson type. Dexter Fowler just signed a 5 x $17M deal at age 31 with St. Louis.
:: shrug :: If Dipoto needs to save $18M, certainly Guillermo Heredia can play center field for him. Because of Heredia, it would be a relatively painless way to amputate an arm off the 2018 budget. Players who come off the books this winter:
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Still will be curious to see whether Dipoto hits the market now for a Maniger swap-in.
BABVA,
Dr D
You make the right case, but I can't imagine it, nor would I want it. In a vacuum, it makes sense, but with the current makeup of the squad and salary commitments, I'm looking for $$ in the rotation, not at our (arguably) deepest position going forward. Even if you want Dyson back, one could argue he can be had for two years at that price, not just one (or some such).
Unrelated: I'm still deflated over no Drew Smiley. What could have been....
...so that covers Hang In There.
Dyson will be offered $10.5 per year for two years with a third year option ... and no need to QO him as he will accept that, unless M's make huge money/talent move today or tomorow, which I doubt.
A big hunk of that $50 mil from 2018 will go towards getting Otani.
And, if that doesn't fly, watch them jump in on F/A Tanaka.
It's Sunday, and I'm almost done pontificating ... but, don't be shocked if DePoet signs a controllable arm since he said he doubted he would ... keeps everybody loose.
In second Rainer start, Gonzales went 6 threw a two hitter, one more start in Tacoma then he joins big club.
zoom
Interesting that DJ Peterson loses his roster spot to Leonys Martin. My guess is that somebody expressed interest in DJ that has an arm that Dipoto would like, so it works to get the roster spot first, then do the trade.
After Haniger's injury, the conventional wisdom was that Cody Martin (the "other" Zag) was going to lose his spot. He went down to Tacoma, but then the DJ announcement - something's afoot. Is it possible Heredia+DJ+somebody like Chris Torres gets an SP or closer-level arm in this market? Teams have seen what Alex Jackson, Luis Gohara, and Zack Littell have done once leaving the Ms environment.
Like others, I'm looking for the Ms to make a strong run at Otani; what relief arm might be available from a team that needs a CF (obviously Mets are out, so not Addison Reed)? Brad Hand? Brandon Kintzler? Going to be an interesting 24 hrs.
The 'M's 9, Mets 1' article isn't showing up in the Baseball chat/Active Thread section. Filing/tagging/other catigorization oversight? Just FYI.
Denizens take note - 2 articles outside the baseball tab :- )