How Many "Mistakes" Does a SP Throw Per Game?
.
James Shields rued the moment he left an 87 MPH cutter out over the plate against Robinson Cano on Friday. Here's a point we think is worth making very clear.
The interviews might leave you with the impression that pitchers only throw one or two "meatballs" per game. The actual percentage of pitches left middle-middle or middle-up is 22% of all major league pitches, not 2%. Don't let them tell you that pitchers can hit their spots to within 2-4 inches each time, and that walks are tremendous flukes. I don't know why MLB managers and pitching coaches say this after the game, "He just made the one mistake," when they certainly know better than that.
Actually 22% sells it way short. What about slow fastballs that are middle away, "out and over" as they say? What about changeups and sliders that miss inner third? What about falling behind 2-0 and throwing a fastball to a good spot, but into the place a hitter is looking? You get the point...
So it was just the one pitch left over the plate, then, James? Here is your zone plot for the day ..
.
.
I definitely do not blame pitchers for failing to hit Triple 20's on a dart board. They're 20 yards from the target, not 8 feet. I am merely baffled at why this convention persists, "He only made one mistake."
We are not slighting the ability of pitchers in the major leagues. Those guys are superHUMAN in their ability. But you as an SSI Denizen see a different game than the one commonly reported on TV. ;- ) Check out Silver's article linked above. He did a great job dissecting The Art Of The Mistake Pitch.
.
GRATUITOUS FAWNING, Dept.
Which is one reason that Dr. D is so partial to starters who have really good stuff. A 97 MPH pitch that drifts over the plate isn't quite as tasty a meatball as one thrown at 91. James Shields might throw 30 tasty pitches in a start, and that's fine. It's a lot less than some AAA pitchers would throw. But Chris Sale throws very few "tasty" pitches. You can't teach nasty.
The fact that we are not watching tournament darts is why --- > James Paxton matters, and it's why closers all have nuclear stuff. Pitchers miss their spots a lot.
Enjoy,
Dr D