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Jean Segura Extension: 5 years, $70M

Seattle Mariners about to lock in a franchise SS

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or so the reports have it.  And the graduation caps create a black cloud overhead like Army bloomin' scored on Navy. ... there were already a few celebration comments in the other thread.

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Q.  Is that a "win" financially for the ballclub or for the player?

A.  Who. Even Cares.  On so many levels.

Saber blogs have spent the last 10 years agonizing over the Exact Right Price for this player or that.  Mostly it's an exercise in testing out our math.  Payrolls are not ossified; they are what the ballclubs want them to be.  If you want to post an analysis for us go ahead.

I'll focus on the fact that we have a major star at shortstop for about Gallardo money.  Next six years.  Kyle Seager and Jean Segura.  I got your "rebuild" right here, baby.

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Q.  What is the correct PECOTA projection for Jean Segura's bat?

A.  Who.  Even.  Cares.  On even more levels.

We have watched the guy hit.  He's Roberto Clemente in the batter's box.  Leave it there.  Jean Segura is 200 hits with authority.  Like James says, "100 RBI" isn't a stat; it's a Larry Neiman painting.  Sometimes the flavor text tells ya more.  :- )

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In terms of slashing hard-hit balls all over the park, maybe Jose Altuve is better.  Maybe.  Other than that, right now there is just nobody better at what Segura does:  hit like Kirby Puckett and run like Mike Trout.

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Q.  What is the Mainframe's estimation of his defense going forward?

A.  Now that's more fair.  He's a good sized guy and you might expect him to lose nimble-ness compared to the waterbugs he competes with.  Our grok?  Jean Segura is a good bit more mobile than we expected.  He's also natural at short, like they said, with comfortable and creative footwork/handwork in spontaneous situations.

Jean Segura is a shortstop, a legit one.

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Q.  Who's better, him or Kyle Seager?

A.  If we're trading, I'll give you even K-Swag before I'll give you Jean Segura, and that's sayin' a whale of a lot.  This was just a mondo "get" for Jerry Dipoto.  Too bad the M's didn't get anything else in that trade.

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Q.  Gotta love that 200 hits type of consistency, huh.

A.  Quite a few echoes between Sudden Jean and our old pal Ichiro.  Jean Segura is a worthy heir to the 200-hit leadoff spot that Ichiro carved out so nobly with his katana, no?

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Q.  How about a celebration video?

A.  Here is the 4-for-5 against Colorado:

  • An Edgar-type rope down the RF line
  • seeing eye Ichi-ball "execution" single up the middle, ensuring an RBI on an 0-2 count
  • Frozen rope to straightaway left (dig the symmetry as he hits "workup" infield practice)
  • Redux contact single on top of the ball

Or here's a power alley homer with no bat load, or here is his handspeed at short, or here is a cleanup-hitter shot, or here he goes vertical to rob a hit.

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Q.  Just for fun:  Most Comparable Players?

A.  Bill James' original concept here was:  if you traded players X and Y, neither team would get better or worse - or even change their style much.  So his kinda comp for Segura woulda been any middle infielder who hit like, um, Barry Larkin.

True, Segura hasn't proven his Hall of Fame Type status, exactly.  But at this moment in time I'll sure as shootin' take him the first round or two in an AL keeper draft.

For me, the most-comparable players to Jean Segura?  Over the timeframe 2016-2021?  I'll go with Barry Larkin, Michael Young plus, Ray Durham (for speed), Alan Trammell, that kinda guy.  Tell you what, though?  Head over to Barry Larkin's b-ref card and tell me what made him better than Sudden Jean?

Granted, Larkin was a better fielder.  But Segura is probably actually a better hitter.  They're both fast and 5-WAR-comfortably.  Of course Larkin actually put a lot of seasons in the record books; can't take that away from him. The M's shortstop situation is LOOKING now about how the Reds' SS situation looked when Lou was there.

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Q.  Leaving us where?

A.  Tell ya what, you give me my 3B and SS in roto, and I'll find a way to get a good roster together.  Position scarcity:  There is no substitute.  :- )  Jerry Dipoto just made his own job real easy the next six years.

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Be Afraid,

Dr D

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