Sam Gaviglio, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Dempster
.
Q. Is Dr. D a fan of sinker-slider pitchers?
A. Quite the reverse.
.
Q. Then why eyes slideways on Sam Gaviglio?
A. Because within this template he's got some special things going.
.
Q. What's the similariity to Lincecum.
A. Just a fanciful one. Gaviglio is a short(er) type of righty who tucks the ball way into his aiki CG ... rocks his R shoulder back to CF ... crests the roller coaster over the top ... and throws downhill with nice late downbite. Here is a video. Remind you of Timmy a bit, physically? :- ) It's fun to watch. He's functional as well as decorative, since this motion tends to hide the ball better than average.
Actually they only had a few pitches of Gaviglio on MLB.com and none really did the Lincecum echo justice. It's increasing as he goes thru the year, though. Check for it :- )
.
Q. And to Ryan Dempster?
A. About the 3rd inning yesterday, you saw some real sharpness to Gaviglio's down-bite fastball and to his allen-wrench power curve. Gaviglio is a two-pitch guy with the same arsenal Dempster had, and he's been using it in Dempster fashion. Here is the movement chart. DIRECT LINK
.
.
Notice where the 0 line is vertically. Gaviglio's power breaking pitches are a nice crisp 80-83 MPH off his 90 MPH fastball, and they have legit bite late. Also notice that his fastball at times gets a 2", 3", 4" finish above 0, compared to the usual 5-8".
Also, Gaviglio showed a real knack for whicking the knees, and just below, with these banana pitches. Dig this sequence in the 3rd against Daniel Robertston, an 1-pitch novella in which Gaviglio forced the strikeout. Pitches 5 and 11 are power overhand curveballs; the other nine pitches are well-located 89-90 fastballs:
.
.
By the time Gaviglio finally decided to bounce a yakker, the deception on it left Robertston little chance.
.
Q. What is his pitch ratio?
A. He throws about 60% fastballs, very well located, and close to 40% power sliders. A massive curve ratio. Delightful to Dr. D.
.
Q. Caveats and quid pro quos?
A. Most Ryan Dempsters who work with two pitches have stuff that is a bit more electric. The young Dempster touched 94 MPH. Young (good) Yovanni used mostly fastball-overhand slider but threw probably 91-93. Tyson Ross' stuff is a little better than Gaviglio's.
Which means only that --- > in the long term Gaviglio WILL need a 3rd pitch. Say, beginning career start 30 or 40 he'll need to start working in a change or split. It's not too much of an issue while he's sneaking up on people.
.
Q. If Gaviglio has got legit Helium, where has he been? Doesn't he have a resume that would rule out his being good?
A. I was surprised to find out there's nothing in his track record to say he couldn't be a good big league starter. He's a rookie with a low BB rate, even 1+ at times. A modest, 5-6 K rate. And a huge, 50% 60% grounder rate. Get him that third pitch eventually and he could feasibly win 50, 100 games in the bigs, you'd think.
.
Q. Leaving us where?
A. Of the 12 pitchers we have already seen start games this season, actually 6 scrubs once you get past Ariel Miranda, Sam Gaviglio is the most interesting. Would take him past Yovanni of course and over the next 10 starts, he MAY be a better bet than Iwakuma.
Eyes slideways,
Dr D