Seattle Sports Insider

Aiki Mechanics

Sam Gaviglio, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Dempster

Nice to finally see a Scrub SB that the Mainframe *likes*

Posted by

jemanji

6/5/17

Q. Is Dr. D a fan of sinker-slider pitchers?

A. Quite the reverse.

Q. Then why eyes slideways on Sam Gaviglio?

A. Because within this template he's got some special things going.

Q. What's the similariity to Lincecum.

A. Just a fanciful one. Gaviglio is a short(er) type of righty who tucks the ball way into his aiki CG ... rocks his R shoulder back to CF ... crests the roller coaster over the top ... and throws downhill with nice late downbite. Here is a video. Remind you of Timmy a bit, physically? :- ) It's fun to watch. He's functional as well as decorative, since this motion tends to hide the ball better than average.

Actually they only had a few pitches of Gaviglio on MLB.com and none really did the Lincecum echo justice. It's increasing as he goes thru the year, though. Check for it :- )

Q. And to Ryan Dempster?

A. About the 3rd inning yesterday, you saw some real sharpness to Gaviglio's down-bite fastball and to his allen-wrench power curve. Gaviglio is a two-pitch guy with the same arsenal Dempster had, and he's been using it in Dempster fashion. Here is the movement chart. DIRECT LINK

Notice where the 0 line is vertically. Gaviglio's power breaking pitches are a nice crisp 80-83 MPH off his 90 MPH fastball, and they have legit bite late. Also notice that his fastball at times gets a 2", 3", 4" finish above 0, compared to the usual 5-8".

Also, Gaviglio showed a real knack for whicking the knees, and just below, with these banana pitches. Dig this sequence in the 3rd against Daniel Robertston, an 1-pitch novella in which Gaviglio forced the strikeout. Pitches 5 and 11 are power overhand curveballs; the other nine pitches are well-located 89-90 fastballs:

By the time Gaviglio finally decided to bounce a yakker, the deception on it left Robertston little chance.

Q. What is his pitch ratio?

A. He throws about 60% fastballs, very well located, and close to 40% power sliders. A massive curve ratio. Delightful to Dr. D.

Q. Caveats and quid pro quos?

A. Most Ryan Dempsters who work with two pitches have stuff that is a bit more electric. The young Dempster touched 94 MPH. Young (good) Yovanni used mostly fastball-overhand slider but threw probably 91-93. Tyson Ross' stuff is a little better than Gaviglio's.

Which means only that --- > in the long term Gaviglio WILL need a 3rd pitch. Say, beginning career start 30 or 40 he'll need to start working in a change or split. It's not too much of an issue while he's sneaking up on people.

Q. If Gaviglio has got legit Helium, where has he been? Doesn't he have a resume that would rule out his being good?

A. I was surprised to find out there's nothing in his track record to say he couldn't be a good big league starter. He's a rookie with a low BB rate, even 1+ at times. A modest, 5-6 K rate. And a huge, 50% 60% grounder rate. Get him that third pitch eventually and he could feasibly win 50, 100 games in the bigs, you'd think.

Q. Leaving us where?

A. Of the 12 pitchers we have already seen start games this season, actually 6 scrubs once you get past Ariel Miranda, Sam Gaviglio is the most interesting. Would take him past Yovanni of course and over the next 10 starts, he MAY be a better bet than Iwakuma.

Eyes slideways,

Dr D

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Comments

This is the silver lining I was hoping for...

...that the death knell of the past weeks would result in a few more quality pieces emerging from the darkness and stench (ahh, childhood memories) of Tacoma. None of us* loved the rotation past Felix-Paxton-Smyly (EDIT: or was that Paxton-Felix-Smyly, perhaps?), Kuma-Gallardo was always a dice roll** and my hope was to see Moore*** ease into a playoff rotation slot by year's end.

Maybe Gaviglio can scratch that itch a second time, now that Miranda seems to have taken the first spot in line.

* I don't actually remember if this is true, and for the purposes of hyperbole neither do I care. =P
** Granted, with some upside - particularly in Kuma's case
*** or equivalent
**** I didn't actually do this one, why are you reading it?

Hey Doc...question...

...what, to you, makes Gaviglio more interesting than Bergman? Would love to hear your analysis on that. To me, they're both pitching about the same game right now, but Gaviglio does have better minor league walk rates.

Just a visual as to what he might become (100+ a few years)

But I'm not dogmatic. In both cases it is a first impression only.

If you ask the question, "what does this guy have to do, to separate himself from good PCL pitching?" For Bergman it's the 3 Fister fastballs well located and that's tough to imagine because few SP's can really do it for a living.

For Gaviglio it's really just maintaining the sink on his fastball (easy to visualize) and the bite on his power curve (50-50 chance). He DOES have enough command to make that work, if he maintains the kinee pounding with spin.

Also Gaviglio doesn't have a track record of getting pulped in the majors. It's a key consideration that Bergman has a long track record of failure in the bigs.

But I wouldn't argue with anyone who preferred Bergman. He also could very easily be a guy who learned his lessons.

Your thoughts?

I have no immediate preference.

I'm in wait and see mode. Gaviglio's stuff looks a little sharper to me. Bergman seems to have gained some polish, though. Going to be watching.

I'm of the same mindset.

Gaviglio is similar but better than Bergman. Or at least a better bet.

It's easy to look at Bergman's AAA and MLB numbers (prior to this year) and blame them on Albuquerque and Coors. I admit, a pitcher could easily become shell-shocked and develop a 100o yard stare. But Bergman's numbers (including this year) are fractionally worse on the road than at home. In 419 PA's faced, he's allowed a .314-.351-.531 line at home (mstly in Coors). On the road, in 373 PA's, it has been .317-.350-.577. He's 29 and I just don't see him moving beyond a spaghetti-like future.

But he does pound the ball at the bottom of the zone effectively when he's on.

Gaviglio, in the short bits I've seen him, seems to have a better "pitchability" factor. I will admit that is a pretty sketchy description, but I could see him as a 50 game MLB winner....or more. He's been good at AAA, and gets better. I like guys who get better. There's a mini-Bartolo Colon-ness about him. 2 pitches, based on a ton of fastballs at the knees and on the black. Colon's thrown 81.5% FB's over his career (one year at 90%), and Gaviglio won't get to that number....but I would bet that he throws more FB's as he goes.

He's not Moore. But he's well worth having.

/cosign!

Bergman's game has been shown to not work against superstar hitters. Not saying that is decisive. But it is a fact.

Yeh, I *do* like Gaviglio's pitchability - including the Lincecum-like "extension" into the danger area. Great body language on the sports motion. Bergman, yes, you can see the remnants at least of the "100 yard stare" (great term!).

On the other hand we'd probably agree that the track record can be a plus if Bergman can force it away from the "shellshock" category and into the "experience" category.

+1 Moe as you practically always give.