Minor League roundup, 5/16
It's about time to take a look at the farm, strange a place as it is right now. I had some time, so here's the Mariners top-10 from MLB.com and how they've done over the first 5 weeks of the season:
1: Kyle Lewis, CF - Still rehabbing from his torn ACL. He's been taking swings off a tee and is right on schedule.
2: Tyler O'Neill, RF - 22 year old Tank is having issues with contact again. .210/ .275/ .365 with 39 Ks against 12 walks in 142 PAs. That's why he's still in the AAA oven. Gotta let that cake bake...
3: Nick Neidert, RHP - Over 10 Ks, under 2 walks per 9, 2.88 ERA in high-A with his trademark low hits. The 20 year old is doing just fine as the best system pitcher, even if his fastball hasn't yet found the extra couple of ticks the Mariners are hoping for. I still want to see him throw a lot of innings though - my big concern with him is that endurance, otherwise he's a reliever.
4: Mitch Haniger, minor deity - nuff said.
5: Andrew Moore, RHP - after destroying AA (2-ish ERA 33-to-9 K:BB ratio) he matriculated up to AAA to get him close to Safeco and some more veteran hitters. So far, so good. The Super-2 cutoff should be the first week of June - hopefully that's when we see Moore in Seattle. He still has his doubters with his "average" stuff, but the guy just gets outs. There's a ton of value in that.
6: Max Povse - steady season so far. 3.50 ERA in AA, good strikeouts, low hits, walks at 3-per are fine (2.65 K:BB ratio). Moore was better in the same league, but Povse isn't a slacker. I don't expect his callup this year though no matter what he does. He doesn't have that Diaz arm (or anything near it) so he's on the steady Doug Fister track.
7: Brayan Hernandez, teen CF - he should get to Everett this year, but they haven't started their season yet.
8: Joe Rizzo, 3B - .255/ .370/ .330 in the Midwest with a fine eye and acceptable K rate, especially as a teen. His doubles swing is pretty pure for a raw kid. Still high on him even though I don't know where exactly he'll play - kid's a gamer.
9: Dan Altavilla, RHP - reliever bouncing back and forth between the bigs and AAA. The arm is fine, just has to shake off some of the big league jitters and keep the spin on his breaking ball.
10: Dan Vogelbach, DH/1B - He's doing fine in AAA (.870 OPS, good eye). That big league jump can be a tough one, but he's got plenty of time to figure it out. I don't expect him to be a clubber despite his body type, but he should be a decent hitter (though I know a lot of people on this board disagree). His problem will always be whether being a decent hitter is good enough at either DH or 1B, or whether he can put up some seriously-plus numbers in time.
The Mariners are getting a lot of good things out of the top-10, especially if they have to burn more minor league capital in another trade. Here are five interesting guys not in the top-10:
Chuck Taylor, 23 year old switch-hitting OF - he's short, built sort of like Jean Segura, and probably more of a corner OF than a CF (although he can play center). The D-Backs took him out of high school, and the guy had a very unimpressive singles-only stroke until last season. His eye was always fine-but-not-great, and he could slap some hits without really making a living at it. If he was more of a sure thing at centerfield that might work, but with that being iffy it was hard to see his path. Then this year came around. He's hitting .330/ .450/ .490 with more walks than Ks in AA. He looks like another swingplane-change candidate, unless it's just a hot 100 ABs, but the Mariners snagged him in the minor league Rule 5 for a reason. His career high in doubles in a year is 17 (in nearly 500 PAs) and he already has 9 in 124 PAs. A little more loft can help even the non-HR hitters, especially those who can also get walks which Taylor can. He's got a Chone Figgins profile at the plate - I'm keeping an eye on him.
LJay Newsome, 20 year old RHP - Ljay is one of the few pitchers we have left from that teenage pitching raid the Mariners went on a few years ago. His ERAs are unimpressive (4.30 last year, 5.10 so far this year in low-A) but IMO he's just in the zone too much. His career K/BB is over 5, but it's bringing his hits up with it because he is ALWAYS in the zone, which when combined with bad minor league fielding is driving his BIP-against through the roof. His FIP this year is 2.97 even with the high hits. He doesn't have a huge fastball (none of our minor league starters really do) but he's a pitchability guy to watch.
Brandon Miller, 21 year old RHP - If you want a pitcher who's built like a pitcher, Brandon's your guy. 6'4 with solid build, he's not like many of our other pitchers - no shortness here. Seattle drafted him last year as one of the only starting arms they invested in with their first 10 picks. Miller could always go to the pen and try to wring more mph out of that sturdy frame, but his very-low-90s fastball is enough at the bottom rungs of the minors to make him look like a fine back-end starting candidate so far. His control has been on the fritz early this year, which makes me wonder if he's working a pitch. His fastball is pretty straight, so a cutter could do him a world of good. He's still several years away, but check back next year and see where he's at.
Braden Bishop, 23 year old CF - I've never liked Braden's approach at the plate, but he's getting better. Instead of just trying to put a bat on the ball he's trying to do something with it now. He's not just hoping for BIP luck. He has as many doubles already this year as he did all of last year (400+ at-bats vs 150 this year). I have trouble believing in any hitter who is running a .050 ISO, but this year's .110 is a nice step up. He has no home run power at all, but put him with Haniger's swing coach for a year and who knows, right? His batting eye is much improved, and he's been better at waiting for his pitch instead of fishing for anything he can make contact on. Bishop's game is growing, and that's all I can ask. The glove is fine, it's all bat with him. When he makes the jump to AA we'll see how he does outside the friendly confines of the Cal League.
Marvin Gorgas 21 year old RHP - reliever with a Stroman buid at 5'9. He was tough to deal with last year and has picked up right where he left off. His walks are high (5 per) but he's striking out 11 per this year, up from his 9.3 last year. The hits remain very low. When you watch his motion he seems to release much closer than he should be able to at his height, so there's some deception there. The terror of him not always knowing where it's going might help against righties too. He throws low-to-mid 90s with that short frame, and it gets on hitters quickly, and his slider has some sharp bite. He's looking to be another Dan Altavilla type, and if he can keep from walking too many guys he has a good shot at a big-league pen job in a couple of years.
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I'm down on the Ms having a number of game-changers left in the minors, but there will always be interesting players. The draft is also coming up in a few weeks, so I'll probably pop back in with a rundown of arms around our draft slot - it's gotta be an arm, right?
If you have any questions or wanna talk minors today, feel free to comment em. I haven't been following the minors quite as closely this year (DiPoto is teaching me not to count on much longevity there) but there are still worthwhile prospects to follow. I'm just hoping Kyle Lewis is ready to drop into Everett when they open their season. I would take the AZL, even - anything to not waste an entire year. He's still the single-best chance Seattle has at an All-Star on the farm... although the Mariners are suddenly swimming in decent OF prospects under club control through the early 2020s. That's a better place to be in.