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So J.A. Happ is using a repertoire that would make a lot of AAA pitchers blush.  And despite this off-putting toolbox, he is getting Doug Fister results.  Here, let's lay a few stats under one another:

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If you didn't know better, you'd say that Happ was morphing into a soft-toss artist a la Hisashi Iwakuma, Fister, Colon, Tim Hudson, and that crew.  

In this category many are called, few are chosen.  There are 9,000 kinds of AAA pitchers who want to walk 1 man per game and survive in the big leagues; most of them get sprained necks.  Occasionally you get a Bartolo Colon with Age Of Ultron Command, or a Doug Fister with three different (good) fastballs and three different (good) offspeed pitches.

But usually the ice is way too thin on that side of the lake.

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Meatball MarinEra

Here, look at J.A. Happ's pitch movement chart from his lockdown on Tuesday.  This is from the pitcher's point of view:

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You see the blue 91 fastball. It rises and swerves normally for a 4-seam (fast rising) fastball.  Maybe the movement is a tad sharper than average, but still well within the range of what MLB hitters see night after night.

The changeup drops LESS than most changeups, and it fails to meet the -8 MPH standard  ... by a whale of a long ways.  (This was precisely the reason that Taijuan Walker got blasted in his first two starts. No separation on his change, that and the change being elevated.)

The yellow curveball is -12 MPH, which is fair to middlin', but you see the 1* next to it?  That's a ratio count.  It means for every 6 pitches, Happ throws:

• 4 fastballs
• 1 "changeup" (actually "he took a little off that one" rather than a changeup)
• 1 curve ball
• 0.5 cut fastballs (exactly the same 86-87 MPH as the change, so it's a bit of a snake-tongue)

Not wanting to dance around the question, the above is a meatball set of pitches to pick from.  Especially if you've got Prince Fielder or Adrian Beltre or Shin-Soo Choo up with men on base.

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So How Does He Do It?

PITCHABILITY.  Let me know the next time you see 9 strikeouts despite only 7 swings and misses.  Happ-Zuumball locked 'em up for Callllled SteeeeRike Threeee's on three separate occasions Tuesday, and all were fastballs thrown into a teacup.

It's not clear to me, yet, whether Mike Zunino is just gettin' THAT good, or what it is.  But the Rangers were "in-between" all night, unsure whether to get the bat head out in front or to take a breath and punish the 86 MPH "changeup."

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COMMAND.  During most starts, you'll hear announcers talking about nice command (able to get an inside-half strike and an outside-half strike).  Then they're left without a descriptive term when the starter actually can throw the ball into their catcher's mitt.  Happ can do this.  Happ DOES do this.

For all the mediocrity of Happ's stuff -- in a vacuum -- he can locate it and he can sequence it.  So, after Happ fanned Prince Fielder in the 4th by taking him 6' up the ladder on 3-2 ... we wind up with this sequence to Adrian Beltre:

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• Pitch 1 = 83 MPH changeup, stones of a burglar, poaches an 0-1 count (grrrrrr)
• Pitch 2 = 84 MPH ch doubles up on him!, but this one is a skosh low (shoulda got a swing or an ump)
• Pitch 3 = The 1-1 fastball is located .... hmmmm where .... LO-AWAY corner (foul ball)
• Pitch 4 = Haaaard slider breaking into and out of zone, onto Beltre's shoe (g'night)

That's a legit 24-karat USDA choice Tom Glavine pitch sequence.  As was the one to Fielder.  Happ also does have the good sharp 92-94 fastball behind it.  Here is the velocity scattergraph.

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For the first four games, J.A. Happ is pitching like a "Classy Veteran Lefty."  He doesn't have a Jeff Fassero forkball.  Or a Jamie Moyer changeup.  Or a Tom Glavine curve.  He has to put them away with smoke and mirrors.  But on the other hand, he does throw harder than they do.

It's an odd sight, a command lefty, 1+ walks, who doesn't have an offspeed game.  Happ's relying on velocity, precision, outguessing them and staying wayyyy ahead in the count.

It makes me kinda squeamish, 'cause I'm still not used to Bartolo Colon.  But four games in, J.A. Happ is owning it.

BABVA,

DR D

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