Pepper
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Seth Smith led off the game on April 22nd. It seemed a pleasant little dream, but we had no confidence that an old-school manager would keep a slow player (90 speed index) there.
But since April 22, Smith has never hit anywhere but #1 or #2. In the fifteen games since, he's hit in either spot half the time.
Compare his two slash lines:
| Time | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Career | .265 | .346 | .454 |
| This Year | .266 | .326 | .481 |
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His walks are down and his power up, which you would assume is caused by pitchers challenging him more -- or his facing the excellent pitching in the AL West, maybe?
Pitch F/X confirms that he is keeping a real tight strike zone. But he's also swinging through more pitches. Could be he's swinging harder and wilder -- odd, when you're leading off in front of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz.
If he's going to lead off, or set the table, he'd do well to slap some balls against the grain of the shift rather than trying to swing from his keister. But I'll take any version of Seth Smith you wanna give me. :- )
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Diderot pointed out that the M's are #1 in hard-hit balls, both leagues. That's still true today: check out this Fangraphs link, and compare the M's % to the middle of the pack. Wow!
If you thought the M's were getting unlucky, you were right. On the same Fangraphs page, now sort it by BABIP. How can you be #27 in BABIP when you are the hardest-hitting lineup in the majors?
Just watching the games, it seems like the M's put up one tough, disciplined AB after another - but get little to show for it. They've scored more than 5 runs only four times in 31 games. Maybe that's partly because the enemy pitchers haven't beaten themselves - few important BB's or E's. But there have also been a whale of a lot of tee shots into the gaps, that happened to get run down.
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McClendon says that J.A. Happ could be a Top of the Rotation (TOR) starter "for a long time." I hope so, but I just can't see it.
Happ's fastball is a real weapon. His velocity is plus, probably top 15 for lefthanders, and his location is simply excellent. But if you called his offspeed stuff "mediocre," I would call you "charitable." And he doesn't want to throw it on 3-and-2.
Even as we speak here, with Happ off to a great start, his run values are terrible on every pitch but the fastball:
| Pitch | Runs per 100 pitches, vs. league average |
| Fastball | -1.44 to his ERA |
| Slider | +1.29 |
| Change | +3.48 |
| Hook | +0.62 |
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I'm glad to have him. I just don't understand how he strikes anybody out; visually he looks to me like a lefty Blake Beavan, superb at gaining a 2-strike count but without a strikeout pitch once he gets there.
Probably it is that I don't understand him yet. Hopefully one of youse mooks will explain it to me. Maybe he's a lefty Bartolo Colon? But add a few offspeed pitches to keep hitters honest?
I dunno.
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A couple of games ago, Danny Farquhar threw two changeups that blew my mind. He looked like 97 MPH on the followthrough -- nose-to-leather, bent way over, back leg way up high, arm came way through -- but the pitch "popped a parachute" and floated in at 84 MPH. It rolled off the top of the table. Garbage swings ensued.
He must have thrown that pitch before, but do you ever remember seeing it?
If he threw 94 MPH and used that changeup, he'd be untouchable. The change curve is devastating, too. Unfortunately, there is no way to break him of his love affair with that little cutter.
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Nelson Cruz has come back to earth. His swinging strike percentage, which he cut almost in half during April, is back to historic norms. Then again, we didn't plan on his hitting 85 homers.
Did you know that Baltimore usually played him in left field last year? I didn't.
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Mojician sez:
So Tom Brady gets suspended four games, but the two ball deflators get an indefinite suspension. Where I come from, the principal and his aiders and abettors get the same punishment. In this case, Brady should be punished more severely than the principals, because he had a semi supervisory position over them. As in, if these two equipment guys did not prosecute his schemes, he could have them replaced. Plus, the equipment guys apparently cooperated with the NFL investigation by turning over their cell phones while Brady did not.
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This is thoroughly depressing. Is that really necessary, to throw the peons under the bus like that? But that's the NFL for you. In my opinion, they're about two steps removed from organized crime.
As to the balls being deflated: SSI would weight this "crime" less, rather than more. A slightly deflated football isn't going to show up in the passing stats. It's like sanding the handle of the bat slightly outside the rules; it's just a comfort thing, as opposed to a corked bat or something. Brady didn't add seven yards to his deep throws because the footballs were 12 PSI rather than 13.
But, yeah.
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There is a school of thought that says, "When Logan Morrison swings at strikes, look out!" And of course that is a skill that naturally improves with age. That school of thought was founded by Robinson Cano.
But we are obliged to report that LoMo's career total on "Swings Outside Zone" is 25%. That's compared to an industry average of 30%. Probably Cano is encouraging Morrison to go up to the plate with a better plan.
He's a lifetime 110 hitter. Seems that's where he'll settle in. He's not going to block D.J. Petersen, but if he gives us 110 this year then we'll take it.
Cheers,
Dr D