M's 3, Rays 0
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On May 10th, Dr. D advised the M's to play easier teams. As usual, they nodded and implemented my recommendation. Since then okay!, okay! since roughly then or thereabouts, they ripped off a 6-3 homestand against OAK, SDP and BOS. They followed this with a 6-3 road trip against ... I dunno, teams way East that aren't the Yankees.
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Chip shot on Felix' complete-game shutout, then. Wednesday he threw 30 (?!) fastballs and sinkers, 44 changeups/dry spitters, and 23 curve balls. This would be an odd ratio even it were not set as a bookend against Taijuan's and K-Pax's games.
Here is the movment chart, courtesy of Brooks Baseball. The chart below is from the catcher's POV. If Felix were throwing in a vacuum, with no air resistance to curve the ball, everything would have hit the crosshairs in the middle.
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Notice the largest clump of squares, clustering (pitcher's) armside there on the left, and swirling around the 0" mark. The ones that fell below 0, we are told, were thrown 89 MPH with FORWARD spin. Nobody has ever explained to Dr. D how this can occur; nor have they explained it to the enemy battersk.
Felix has become so methodical in his 7 IP, 2 ER type outings that it defies a good quip. Suffice it to say, Dr. D never liked Felix the way he has liked Pineda, Lincecum, Paxton, Chris Archer, etc. From the very first, Felix has been a technician. Technique is boring. It's winning, but it's boring.
You'll never see a movie where the hero just lines the bad guys up and shoots them in the head. Well, you won't see it from George Lucas.
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Nelson Cruz' three-run shot was hit "the other way," to right-center field, and was named Metaphor of the Week as it screamed into a saltwater tank and powerbombed a flotilla of "rays." If I'm not mistaken, those are the two HR's that BoxBurger has coughed up this season? Cruz' and Seager's?
Fun facts with Nellie. Run to Fangraphs > Hitters > Value and you'll see that under their (dogmatic) view of the world, Cruz has so far in May this year earned $15.2M of his $57M four-year deal.
When teams do give out four-year $60M deals, that's kind of the idea: hope the guy earns $20, then $15, then $12, then $9. LrKrBoi just added that and noted it doesn't quite come out to $60. But then LrKr should also look up "Net Present Value."
:: smacks head :: tepid attempt at snark aside, teams do figure that they're paying for the first half of the contract, and getting the rest as gravy. Nellie is providing quite the example, especially if he keys an M's run to a $75M postseason.
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Under WPA, Cruz is now at a laughable +3.94. That's 4 wins he has added to his team's W expectation compared to average. Not compared to a benchie "Replacement Level Player." Compared to the average AL baseball player, say, David Freese or Jed Lowrie. The "average" AL player's team is winning .500 already.
Seager and Cano have chipped in close to another +2 WPA between them. After that, the rest of the M's position players have combined for -4.5 WPA. It's a whale of a contest: the Scrubs battling the Stars to a bloody standoff.
+3.94 leads the American League in win probability added. After Cruz' +3.94, there are then five National Leaguers between +3.5 and +2.5, and then next is Josh Donaldson at +2.46. There is no other American Leaguer with two WPA.
BABVA,
Dr D