M's 3, Vannelope 6
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Careening around the peaks and pikes of Sugar Rush Speedway -- that's Archer, Bauer, Salazar, Kluber, Pineda, with Taffyta Muttonfudge and Swizzle Malarkey up next -- the M's have been trying hard to glitch their way into a couple of leads. Early in the game Sunday, Dr. D was not holding his breath.
Funny thing, though: around the fifth curve, the Mariners took the high side on Salazar and caught no fence on the pass. Logan Morrison led off with a clean off-field single and I don't care how many Dustin Ackleys you carry in your pit crew, you've now got:
- A run expectancy on the inning of +1,
- Your SP throwing great and already into the 6th,
- Your bullpen almost ready to go.
But this is exactly what's so frustrating about the M's, knowhutuhmean? You've got a 240-lb. first baseman with an average batted-ball velocity of 120 MPH, and he can ping a single the other way, and ... we've been the better part of a month since his last home run. Here we are again.
Brad Miller feathered a gorgeous double-clutch and blew by Salazar two car lengths. Check it out: here's what they've been doing to Taijuan.
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That's a whale of a job on the walk. True, the pitches look comfortably high if you focus your eyes on the little white triangle. But try focusing on the letters and the MPH ... wow. And this is what's so frustrating about the M's, knowwhutuhmean? Miller's swings out of zone are excellent - yet the moment you throw him 93 right down the middle, he'll swing through it.
OK, two men on, nobody out, and the run expectancy would now be 1.5 even if they weren't throwing their version of Taijuan Walker.
Dustin Ackley lays down a bunt, even getting a base hit out of it. Beautiful! And three batters later, it is 3-0 Mariners, two out, AJax on third base.
Dr. D is guessing that you saw the next sequence. Danny Salazar came WAY up and in with a 94 fastball ... a pro boxer's punch might carry 300 ft-lbs. of kinetic energy, if you're talking heavyweight division. A .357 magnum might carry 600 lbs., if you're talking 125-grain hot loads. Salazar's chin-skimmer looked like "knock a hole through 3/4" plywood," if you're talking plywood.
Two pitches later, Salazar stuck with the ol' Taijuan stratergy and Cruz rifled a triple into the right-center alley. Except! A blurry streak came racing in from the right, intersected with the flight of the ball, and materialized into ... Ryan Raburn. Or, more plausibly, Vanellope von Schweetz. One of the most painful glitches of the year.
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So the M's fibbled away their 4th run, which would have been the ballgame and a .500 record (again). True, they fanned 11 times on the night. But that means they still went 5-for-29 on their BABIP. And it's not like they're popping up every time. Just one more game in which the Big Hit Didn't Fall In.
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SSI wondered a couple of days ago why the M's don't have more games in which they score more than five runs. Watching the fifth, though, it hit us: the Mariners never seem to have any big innings. When's the last time you saw an enemy pitcher walk 3 guys while his defenders committed two errors?
Going into Sunday's game, the M's OPS+ was right at 100 and their ERA+ was precisely 100 as well. Yet, with all their problems, you can't shake the feeling that on the given nights that teams play us, they play better than usual. That's a big part of scoring 4, 5, 6 runs in an inning: the other team fouling up.
Anyway, the M's maintain a comfortable lead in hard-hit balls, #1 of 30 teams, yet are #25 in BABIP and #24 in wRC+ when men are in scoring position.
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The M's basic idea of offense, going into the season, was this:
- Get Cano, Seager, and Cruz (as a group) to star
- Get decent production out of Smith/Ruggiano and LoMo
- Have one of the kids (Brad Miller, Mike Zunino, Dustin Ackley) break out a little
The funny thing is, in very loose terms, they've done it. They're left with the 100 OPS+, even after deduction for benchies like backup catcher and Willie Bloomquist. Not sure what it will take to shift into fourth gear, but they've got some good things going on.
BABVA,
Dr D