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=== The Good ===

So THAT's what it looks like, to see a ballclub go out and challenge the division champs.  Buy that manager a sody pop.

It was complete joy, from start to finish, to watch the April 14 Mariners throw pitch after pitch with the intention of beating the LA Angels.  The Seattle Mariners haven't challenged their opponents like that, for at least five years.

Up and down the roster, the Mariners are outmanned vs the Angels.  Roy Corcoran is not Scot Shields; Russ Branyan is not Vlad Guerrero (who still runs a 130 OPS+); hey, Kenji Johjima is not Mike Napoli (minor league hotshot with career 123 OPS+), for that matter.

But the Mariners had the upper hand in body language and attitude, they played every pitch like they intended to show the Angels who was boss, and it was sweet to watch.  When Scot Shields threw that last play into Bellevue, he might have thrown the Angels' mystique along with it.  You should have seen the Angels slink off the field.

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Right now, this club reminds me a LOT of the 1995 Mariners after Junior got hurt.  A bunch of no-names (like Corcoran and Aardsma) going out there and getting it done, night after night, under pressure.  Because they believe they can, and because they believe that they are expected to do so.

The 1995 M's were 50% Edgar and the Big Unit, and 50% attitude -- and they won every night for two months.

Tuesday night's ballgame was the closest to that kind of game that we've seen in quite a while...

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=== The Bad Dept. ===

The Mariners' team OPS+ is -- wait for it -- 74.   (This means that if the average AL team's park-adjusted OPS were 1000, the Mariners' would be only 740.)

They're hitting .253/.306/.349 as a ballclub, and I don't care how much that crisp defense makes you smile, there is no such thing as winning with a 74%-of-average offense.

Neither have the Mariners been locked down by big-name pitchers.  The Twins were missing their #1 starter; the A's rotation is a joke; last night, the Angels started a man who is the very definition of a AAA pitcher.  Except for two of the Twins' starters, the Mariners might just as well have been facing a good PCL pitching rotation.  And against THAT they have a 74 offense.

Neither is it a BABIP problem, at root.  The M's have a .276 team BABIP, and in Safeco it's not like they're going to get a whopping increase on that.

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=== The Ugly Dept. ===

So this swagger that the M's have gingerly talked themselves into won't last a month.  It might not last another series.  UNLESS they get that offense rolling.

I don't care if you're the 1966 Dodgers, you're not going to win in this league and this era by scores of 1-0, 2-0 and 2-2*.  The Mariners' 6-3 record is built on games like:

1-0 in front of Erik Bedard -- the M's will probably not win another game 1-0 all year

2-0 in front of Jarrod Washburn -- Washburn will likely not throw another shutout this season

2-2* in front of Carlos Silva -- the M's will go about 1-12 in Silva games they score 2 runs in

Neither are the M's going to "cool down" from .750 ball to .550 ball.  A 74 OPS+, combined with the league's VERY BEST pitching staff, would be a mortal lock to lose 90 games.  Have Matty run the math for yer.

Such an offense could be combined with a 116 ERA+ ... equal to that of the 1965 Koufax-Drysdale Dodgers ... and STILL finish far below .500.

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=== The Yoo-Gly Dept. ===

The goal isn't to "cleverly" win 80-85 games with underrated and underpaid players, bank a budget surplus, and then wave smiling to the crowd about our high IQ's.  ;- )

The goal is to fight for the pennant.  In order to do that, the Mariners will need more offense.  It's available.  The only acceptable goal for the 2009 Mariners, now that they know they can be good, is to try to win the pennant.

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=== Escape Clause Dept. ===

As you know, the M's offense WILL get better than 74.  It's at least an 85-90 offense, even if they keep up the weird stuff like playing ALL their OF gloves Chavez, Cedeno, and Gutierrez together while their bats Sweeney, Balentien and Junior* ride the pine.

Yeah, I know.  When Silva and Washburn are on the mound, you want good defense.  What you don't want, though, is 2 runs offensively against a PCL pitcher.  They can't win when they score 2 runs, period.

.......................

1)  The M's lack two big bats.  They need to add those two big bats.

But the good news is, they add one tonight:  Ichiro's off the DL.  Ichiro is a legitimate star offensively and defensively, so that will help.

And the other bat is (sort of) on the roster:  they can get players like Sweeney and Balentien into the games, as opposed to playing all their gloves at once.

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2) Wakamatsu can stop with the experiment on ignoring the platoon advantages, and can start scrambling to get the platoon advantage everywhere he can find it.

Sweeney and Branyan make an impressive platoon at 1B.  Balentien has started hot, going .400/.455/.500, and he should be in there against lefties (and against some righties).  Wakamatsu hasn't been pinch-hitting to get the platoon advantage, either.

On Tuesday, the pedestrian lefty Darren Oliver cut through the M's gloves like a buzzsaw, and Wok did not swap out Cedeno, Gutierrez OR Chavez for Wlad Balentien.

Wok has a 12-man offense.  Seems to me he'll need to deploy it with runs in mind.

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3) A deal for a bat (e.g. a Swisher type) is not out of line; this club is better than expected.  Management should bet into the pot when it's drawing to three-of-a-kind.

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4) The M's could sit back and hope that they have enough.  Maybe Jose Lopez will go .300-27-110, and Branyan finish with 35 homers, and Beltre have a big contract year, etc etc.

No reason they can't play another few weeks and see, of course.  But this administration is proactive.  Let's hope they have a VERY keen eye on that lousy .250/.300/.350 offense.

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=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Granted that the club hasn't started hitting.  Johjima's OPS+ is -3, LOL.  Beltre's is 53.  Lopez' is 60.  They'll do better than a 74 teamwide OPS+.

But D-O-V calls for more than a 90-95 OPS+, a 105 ERA+, and a competitive ballclub in a great family environment.  Because it has Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and a willingness to truly fight, this club isn't far from being really dangerous.  And the key at this point is getting more runs.

B'lee Dat,

Dr D