Seattle Sports Insider

6 Wins, 2 Losses - the Good, the Bad, the Ugly

Posted by

4/15/09

=== The Good ===

So THAT's what it looks like, to see a ballclub go out and challenge the division champs. Buy that manager a sody pop.

It was complete joy, from start to finish, to watch the April 14 Mariners throw pitch after pitch with the intention of beating the LA Angels. The Seattle Mariners haven't challenged their opponents like that, for at least five years.

Up and down the roster, the Mariners are outmanned vs the Angels. Roy Corcoran is not Scot Shields; Russ Branyan is not Vlad Guerrero (who still runs a 130 OPS+); hey, Kenji Johjima is not Mike Napoli (minor league hotshot with career 123 OPS+), for that matter.

But the Mariners had the upper hand in body language and attitude, they played every pitch like they intended to show the Angels who was boss, and it was sweet to watch. When Scot Shields threw that last play into Bellevue, he might have thrown the Angels' mystique along with it. You should have seen the Angels slink off the field.

................

Right now, this club reminds me a LOT of the 1995 Mariners after Junior got hurt. A bunch of no-names (like Corcoran and Aardsma) going out there and getting it done, night after night, under pressure. Because they believe they can, and because they believe that they are expected to do so.

The 1995 M's were 50% Edgar and the Big Unit, and 50% attitude -- and they won every night for two months.

Tuesday night's ballgame was the closest to that kind of game that we've seen in quite a while...

=== The Bad Dept. ===

The Mariners' team OPS+ is -- wait for it -- 74. (This means that if the average AL team's park-adjusted OPS were 1000, the Mariners' would be only 740.)

They're hitting .253/.306/.349 as a ballclub, and I don't care how much that crisp defense makes you smile, there is no such thing as winning with a 74%-of-average offense.

Neither have the Mariners been locked down by big-name pitchers. The Twins were missing their #1 starter; the A's rotation is a joke; last night, the Angels started a man who is the very definition of a AAA pitcher. Except for two of the Twins' starters, the Mariners might just as well have been facing a good PCL pitching rotation. And against THAT they have a 74 offense.

Neither is it a BABIP problem, at root. The M's have a .276 team BABIP, and in Safeco it's not like they're going to get a whopping increase on that.

=== The Ugly Dept. ===

So this swagger that the M's have gingerly talked themselves into won't last a month. It might not last another series. UNLESS they get that offense rolling.

I don't care if you're the 1966 Dodgers, you're not going to win in this league and this era by scores of 1-0, 2-0 and 2-2*. The Mariners' 6-3 record is built on games like:

1-0 in front of Erik Bedard -- the M's will probably not win another game 1-0 all year

2-0 in front of Jarrod Washburn -- Washburn will likely not throw another shutout this season

2-2* in front of Carlos Silva -- the M's will go about 1-12 in Silva games they score 2 runs in

Neither are the M's going to "cool down" from .750 ball to .550 ball. A 74 OPS+, combined with the league's VERY BEST pitching staff, would be a mortal lock to lose 90 games. Have Matty run the math for yer.

Such an offense could be combined with a 116 ERA+ ... equal to that of the 1965 Koufax-Drysdale Dodgers ... and STILL finish far below .500.

=== The Yoo-Gly Dept. ===

The goal isn't to "cleverly" win 80-85 games with underrated and underpaid players, bank a budget surplus, and then wave smiling to the crowd about our high IQ's. ;- )

The goal is to fight for the pennant. In order to do that, the Mariners will need more offense. It's available. The only acceptable goal for the 2009 Mariners, now that they know they can be good, is to try to win the pennant.

=== Escape Clause Dept. ===

As you know, the M's offense WILL get better than 74. It's at least an 85-90 offense, even if they keep up the weird stuff like playing ALL their OF gloves Chavez, Cedeno, and Gutierrez together while their bats Sweeney, Balentien and Junior* ride the pine.

Yeah, I know. When Silva and Washburn are on the mound, you want good defense. What you don't want, though, is 2 runs offensively against a PCL pitcher. They can't win when they score 2 runs, period.

.......................

1) The M's lack two big bats. They need to add those two big bats.

But the good news is, they add one tonight: Ichiro's off the DL. Ichiro is a legitimate star offensively and defensively, so that will help.

And the other bat is (sort of) on the roster: they can get players like Sweeney and Balentien into the games, as opposed to playing all their gloves at once.

.......................

2) Wakamatsu can stop with the experiment on ignoring the platoon advantages, and can start scrambling to get the platoon advantage everywhere he can find it.

Sweeney and Branyan make an impressive platoon at 1B. Balentien has started hot, going .400/.455/.500, and he should be in there against lefties (and against some righties). Wakamatsu hasn't been pinch-hitting to get the platoon advantage, either.

On Tuesday, the pedestrian lefty Darren Oliver cut through the M's gloves like a buzzsaw, and Wok did not swap out Cedeno, Gutierrez OR Chavez for Wlad Balentien.

Wok has a 12-man offense. Seems to me he'll need to deploy it with runs in mind.

........................

3) A deal for a bat (e.g. a Swisher type) is not out of line; this club is better than expected. Management should bet into the pot when it's drawing to three-of-a-kind.

.........................

4) The M's could sit back and hope that they have enough. Maybe Jose Lopez will go .300-27-110, and Branyan finish with 35 homers, and Beltre have a big contract year, etc etc.

No reason they can't play another few weeks and see, of course. But this administration is proactive. Let's hope they have a VERY keen eye on that lousy .250/.300/.350 offense.

=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Granted that the club hasn't started hitting. Johjima's OPS+ is -3, LOL. Beltre's is 53. Lopez' is 60. They'll do better than a 74 teamwide OPS+.

But D-O-V calls for more than a 90-95 OPS+, a 105 ERA+, and a competitive ballclub in a great family environment. Because it has Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and a willingness to truly fight, this club isn't far from being really dangerous. And the key at this point is getting more runs.

B'lee Dat,

Dr D

Comments

Good points on the offense

Good points on the offense Doc. I think if we can get that offense in the 95-100 OPS+ range we're contenders.
More specifically we could use help against RHPs (with GB tendencies).
Swisher would have been PERFECT for this team, but the opportunity to buy low on him is now gone. With his nuclear start and an injury to the starting OF, hes set in NY.
Gabe Gross would be an EXCELLENT fit. A LH guy that can hit RHP with mild FB tendencies, a little pop, and an above-average glove in corner. A GREAT guy to throw in our OF rotation.. Hes basically just blocking Matt Joyce in Tampa Bay.
It would also be nice if Wak would run his platoon more aggressively.

The nice thing with Gross is

The nice thing with Gross is that hes not liable to cost much either and hes off to a slow start thankfully.
Asides from the OF vs GB RH pitching, we pretty don't have anywhere else to plug a bat. What we COULD use is an upgrade at SS, but that may be difficult to fine.
A more realistic upgrade would be finding a backup LH middle infielder that can hit a little (I'm NOT sold on Cedeno being anything either than terrible with the bat).

Good points about Wak's

Good points about Wak's disregarding platoon splits. In the early going, this is a bit of concern, and also the fact that he got Tui *zero* playing time. I understand Tui being the last man in, but a complete snub seems like a mistake. A lot of what I see in Wak I like, but these are two things that seem odd.
In fact, he seems to be ignoring platoon issues to a degree I'm not sure any manager has done, at least in a long time. Add to his disregard of it in creating lineups and offensive substitution the decision to break camp without a lefty in the pen.
I chuckle thinking about what McLaren's response would be to breaking camp without a situational lefty. Ears emitting smoke.
Wak also seems to be picking bullpen arms as if he were the catcher, not so much a manager. Ignoring matchups to a certain degree and going with the guy whose 'stuff' he likes better.
It's an interesting approach that has worked so far. The concept of focusing on the positive is something this club sorely needed.

What situational lefty should

What situational lefty should the Mariners have used, muskie?
Newsflash...we went without a lefty in the pen because...we had ZERO lefties worth carrying.
The lack of pinch hitting is of mild concern but I think the pinch hitting gets easier to do when the team gets Ichiro back because to get guys like Cedeno and Chavez/Balentien PT he's going to have to start pinch hitting.

Doc...I know you acknowledge

Doc...I know you acknowledge this:
Johjima: -3 OPS+, last year...a horrible season...64...other catching options close at hand...potentially better than that.
Sweeney: 43 OPS+, lots and lots and LOTS of replacements 20 miles away i Tacoma if he doesn't pan out
Beltre: 53 OPS+, expecting 105-110 this year
Lopez: 60 OPS+, but been cheated on two near-HRs and soon to be over 100 like last year
Gutierrez: 75 OPS+, career closer to 90 and showing pretty solid ability at the plate
Griffey: OBP heavy 99 OPS+, likely to improve on the power output when he gets settled in
Cedeno: 23 OPS+, career closer to 80
Let's not fixate on the 74 team OPS+...they're going to finish the year near 95 if they make ZERO changes other than swapping out guys like Sweeney if they don't perform and de-emphasizing Cedeno and Chavez if Wlad hits when he gets ABs...and yes...if you put a 95 OPS+ offense with THIS pitching staff and THIS team defense...they're competitive. And I don't mean 85 wins competitive...I mean 2005 Chisox, 2008 Angels competitive.
But even if they don't win in 2009, what Wakamatsu has accomplished erasing years of negative history and getting this team to focus on the positive...that's a lot more important IMHO.

Who would Cedeno pinch hit

Who would Cedeno pinch hit for though? Hes a RH MI and both of our MIs are better hitters than him. Trading Cedeno+something for a LH backup MI is something I think would make some sense. Wasn't Emmanuel Burriss dropped a couple weeks ago? I like him a heck of a lot better than I like Cedeno.
The Putz trade looks like its going to be a MASSIVE success (Gutierrez ALONE is going to be a better player than Putz from here on out), but I'm starting to have second thoughts on the Heilman trade. We could really use him in the bullpen right now.

Ben Zobrist too is another

Ben Zobrist too is another guy you'd want to consider as a backup MI (don't know his availability or how much he'd cost).

Actually, Zobrist has been a

Actually, Zobrist has been a lot better against RHB than LHB in his minor league career (916 career OPS vs RHs). Looks pretty ideal as as the main backup for Betancourt, Lopez, and Beltre (profiles better defensively at 2B/3B, but can play SS too)
What would it cost to get Gross and Zobrist from the Rays? I'm guessing a couple 2nd tier specs.

No...you wouldn't pinch hit

No...you wouldn't pinch hit Cedeno...he's giving guys days off mostly...but with Ichiro in the line-up, you're going to have an extra outfielder available at all times now...so you won't have to worry as much about pinch hitting Sweeney or Wlad against a lefty (for a guy like Branyan or for the catchers or for Betancourt) and you'll always have a center fielder available to slide over if you need to pinch hit for Gutierrez...it just opens up the options more...
During last night's game people were begging Wak to pinch hit for Johjima and Betancourt, but wityh Griffye's back hurting, there was no way to do that...the extra outfielder we needed was DHing.

As for acquiring the Rays'

As for acquiring the Rays' good back-ups...they're considering themselves a world series contender right now. I don't think they're even listening to trade offers unless they can help them win NOW...not in three years.
So acquiring Zobrist and Gross would probably cost someone much closer to the big leagues...someone like Clement or Tui.

I can't imagine it'd cost

I can't imagine it'd cost anything close to Clement...
Gross is basically holding the spot for Matt Joyce whose already a better player with more upside. Zobrist is kind of a worse version of Willie Aybar (who they've extended).
Gross is definetly available. I'm not sure about Zobrist, but theres no way it'd cost Jeff Clement. MAYBE a guy like Saunders or Ramirez, but I think thats really pushing it.

I'd happily trade Clement for

I'd happily trade Clement for Matt Joyce (maybe another idea there), but no way I'd consider him for Gross (who they could even up DFA'ing when they call Joyce up).

So Doc...what do the numbers

So Doc...what do the numbers say when a team scores 11 runs off MLB average+ pitching?

Hey Doc... one thing I've got

Hey Doc... one thing I've got to say about this (mentally conceived before tonight's 11-3 rout, and phrased to reflect this):
In the first eight games of the season (limited sample size acknowledged), this team has ALWAYS either:
* Scored five+ runs, or
* Won
No - we won't win every 1-0, 2-0, 2-2* game. No, we can't depend on this offense to always meet that standard. And no, it's not like our offense is really good enough (even with Ichiro's return).
BUT
Yes - clutch matters, and we ended up not *needing* more offense those sub-5-run nights. Yes - these Mariners are ~.360 with RISP (again, before 11-3). And yes - 2-2* may be justified, but without the error we still have a man on third with only one out... odds are very nice we win that anyways.
This team has room to grow, but heck yeah - it has already grown by leaps and bounds!

Tonight, the Mariners busted

Tonight, the Mariners busted out the patience...took a whole bunch of walks, played smallball until the Angels started making mistakes and then busted out the whooping sticks. What more could you want? :D

:- ) Am only too glad to see

:- ) Am only too glad to see a game in which the M's ram my shtick back down my throat, and here's hopin' they do it about 153 more times...
Even sweeter to see Jared fold under the pressure and fumble the ball that opened the floodgates. Console yourself with another doob, pokey.
If, with Ichiro, the M's claw and scratch their way to a teamwide 100 OPS+, they can challenge... perhaps now that the three-backup-OF's plan is history, they'll do precisely that...
As mentioned above, what the M's braintrust needs to do is keep a very keen eye on that offense. If it drops below league-average, as Dr. D expects that it will if Gutierrez and Chavez continue to start, then they need to address it.