Reliever with the #2: Satire or It Could Happen?
Spec writes,
There is a quantum leap of buzz about Tanner Scheppers rising all the way up to us at #2 after he went four innings of no-hit ball with 6 Ks in his independent league debut. (Churchill apparently has him pegged at #2 now.)
No doubt, IF HEALTHY, he is the one guy who stands out as a clear-cut #2 overall talent. Interested in your thoughts on one or both (with Vargas - jeff).
Love Jason's emphasis on the pre-majors analysis that he is such an expert with. Kudos to him for alerting us all to the possibility that Scheppers will be the next bonus-baby Mariner.
I 
'm not SUPER interested in players outside the American League, so ... don't take me wrong please if I compare my own point of view to that of an imaginary GM.
I don't know if Jason agrees with me, but his point of view could be compared to that of a Roger Jongewaard or Bob Fontaine, gathering the information and building a "big board" out of it.
My interest (if not expertise) would be in collating that information, putting it in context, giving a global perspective on it and perhaps kibitzing on what specifics in the report that I like and don't...
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Scheppers' scouting report reminds a fair amount of Max Scherzer's, though he's got more Brandon Morrow's frame. I've seen the vids and internet breakdowns on him, but let's save that for a later POTD...
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What scares me is: supposing I asked you to DESIGN me a pitcher who was very likely to be drafted as a starter and then quickly converted to relief pitching by the Seattle Mariners. What would you put on the chalkboard?
1. Right hand pitcher
2. Hot fastball (30-30-30 types don't relieve)
3. Stress fracture, whoops, slightly trashed labrum in the shoulder a year ago
4. Indy league time off
5. Frail body, like Morrow
At least Scheppers doesn't have Type II. :- \
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Earlier, we put a sarcastic ironic poll up at Mariner Central: SATIRE OR IT COULD HAPPEN? The Mariners will use the #2 overall to draft a relief pitcher? The vote came in heavy on IT COULD HAPPEN...
If Tanner Scheppers were drafted #2 overall, I would expect 50% of the Mariners' employees to immediately begin arguing that he would be more effective in relief...
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Good relievers are valuable. But you have NO business spending top-10 overalls on them. It's like being given $3,000 to landscape, and spending it on a hot-rod hedge trimmer and trimming one hedge. Getting a relief pitcher is not an appropriate accomplishment with the #1 pick in baseball (Strasburg isn't a baseball pick; he's a George Plimpton novel).
It's like somebody made you Zac Efron, rich good-looking hip and the hottest guy in high school -- and then assigned you the task of scoring one shared lunch table with a 10th-grade math girl. Got it? Cool. Nice job. Back to Hollywood.
Drafting relievers with top-10 overall picks does not help the team. Relievers are the "CHANCE" slots on your Yahtzee card. You move dice rolls, er, pitchers there when something else doesn't work out. You don't roll four 6's and a 5 and go, oh hey, that's a 29 for Chance.
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For the sake of argument, if the Mariners were going to draft Tanner Scheppers with the firm resolve of getting him into Carlos Silva's old rotation slot ASAP, I'd be all for it.
POTD on Scheppers before long.
Cheers,
Dr D