POTD Jason Vargas
Published after Vargas' first start in 2009. -- jjc.
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Q. Boy, dat Vargas has looked purty good, hain't he? 1 run in 8.2 innings, including a great outing against all those righties *IN* Texas.
A. One of your all-time white-knuckle 1.04 ERA's. :- )
I don't know how many fly balls went to the warning track in Texas, but if even two of them had gone out, we'd be moving on to the next subject.
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Q. You don't agree with giving Vargas a shot in the #5 SP slot?
A. I'm incredibly impressed that the Mariners are trying different things this early. In the 1980's, Bill James pointed out that you can judge a manager's competitive fire by how long he sticks with an SP running a terrible ERA.
Mike Hargrove will stick with a 6.50 ERA veteran for thirty-two starts. Lou Piniella, on the other hand, can and will start fifteen different pitchers over the course of a year, if nobody wants the job.
There's nothing wrong with giving Vargas a look, in view of the alternatives. He's not an ML starting pitcher, though. Coefficient of confidence > 95% on that, pokey.
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Q. How can you be so sure?
A. Vargas gives the batters a VERY good look at a very straight fastball. Slo-mo it and you'll see. They can see the ball from WAY before his release point, and they can follow it all the way through the release zone right onto the barrel of their bats.
At least twice an inning, the courageous Jason Vargas Iron-Mikes that 87 sidearmer gloriously through the air right to the hitting tee thigh-high. If Vargas starts, his homer rate is going to be hilarious.
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Q. Maybe he can command the ball within the zone.
A. The way he shows that fastball, at 87 mph, he'd have to hit corners like Annie Oakley to stay away from a sky-high HR rate.
His lifetime BB rate is 4.4 in the majors. In the minors, his 3.0 rate equates to about the same 4.4 MLE.
I'm not trying to rain on anybody's parade. I'm just sayin', the guy is going to give up too many homers to righthanders.
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Q. Fangraphs shows him at 89.
A. What an awesome site. The numbers aren't gospel, in part because the pitch delineation can be subjective. If an 85 fastball gets classified as some other pitch, well...
Vargas doesn't average any 89.0 blinkin' mph on his fastball.
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Q. What's too many homers?
A. The average is what, 1.1. Go find somebody who has sustained success on 1.3? Thought not. ... I'll be surprised if Vargas stays under 1.5 in the long term, as a starter.
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Q. As a reliever?
A. He's got a real shot. Here are his career totals in the majors:
vs RH - .290/.376/.485 ... 72/56 control ratio
vs LH - .209/.270/.357 ... 2.3 control ratio
I haven't looked it up in the minors and won't bother. Righty major leaguers are going to pummel Vargas if he's overexposed in the rotation.
But lefty, they do have a rough time seeing him, and he's got nice arm action on the breaking pitch, and he can fan 7 men per 9 innings if spotted in relief. That doesn't mean he has to face LH only. If righties aren't loaded for bear against him, he can scuffle. You see him, right now, getting the benefit of novelty that he would retain to some extent in the pen.
I'm thinking Vargas can help right away as a late-inning lefty. Not dominate, but help. Darren Oliver was new once.
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Q. Quickie on the pitching mechanics?
A. Tucks well, very compact, good rotation, drop-and-drive, elbow low on backstroke, directly sidearm on the release, everything cool -- but then the ball doesn't really do much.
The motion is conducive to health, but not to deception. (It's not clear to me why this guy would ever have been injured; didn't I hear that he missed a season or two? Maybe not.)
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Q. How okay is it to watch, root and hope for a surprise?
A. We'd all rather see any kind of stab-in-the-dark than see Carlos Silva at this point, but I can give you a feel for it this way: I'd rather see the time invested in Garrett Olson than in Vargas.
Any AAA / fringe starting pitcher can have a good ten games or even a good year. It wouldn't make a fringe SP a good pitcher for him to have a 3.50 half year, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be cool.
I'll be rooting for Mr. Vargas. The mainframe says not to get my hopes up. ;- )
Cheers,
Dr D