North or South?
=== It Ain't Over Till It's Over, Yogi ===
I've leaned against the Washburn trades BECAUSE I was assuming that you'd be getting back org thickener for Washburn.
I'm not gutpunching the 2009 Mariners to get a couple 21-year-olds who won't make our top 20 prospects.
The clubhouse has bought into your spiel. They've swallowed their pride and fallen into line. Now you're going to nod, satisfied at their submission, rear back, and deliver a thunderous kick to their coconuts?
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Plus, you get this offense going at all, and there's no rush to quit. Teams blow 7-8 game leads a lot later than July.
It's one thing to say, "we probably won't win." It's a different thing to say, "if we're not the favorites, it's time to quit." That was the culture pre-Zduriencik. Send that message, boys, and you'll be watching them quit in May. Remember?
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=== It Ain't the Score, It's How Yer Playin' ===
My son and I argue all the time about whether the Seahawks are out of it, if down 24-10 in the third quarter. I always say something like, "It's not the score. It's that they can't give Hasselbeck any time." If they'd start playing well, the 14 points are doable.
The Mariners have had four months to fix LF, or 3B, or SS, or C, or DH, in terms of upgrading that putrid 90 OPS+ offense. They haven't done it.
If 3B is really going to be Jack Hannahan, COMBINED with Rob Johnson at C, COMBINED with no production in left, COMBINED with your shiny new glove at SS ... then yeah. The division is gone. You don't make the playoffs with 90 offenses.
So, yeah. If the M's can't do any better than the current offense, as is, then they might as well cash in Washburn.
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The offense ain't as bad as I think? C'mon. The ERA is #1 and you're -50 in run differential. What WOULD you call a bad offense? :- )
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An offense with 5 different holes? That should be easy to improve.
Now supposing that you moved Branyan to 3B. Or suppose you'd traded for a bat. Or suppose you'd brought Saunders up 10 days earlier, so you could gauge him against RHP's. Or suppose you took whichever Rainier actually hit -- say Mike Carp -- and put him in LF.
And supposing you found something, and your bats cruised up to a 98 OPS+, then yeah. Let's fight.
But not with a -50 run differential. That won't work.
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=== So, North or South? ===
If the M's add offense on July 31, they can do battle. Nick Johnson, Scott Rolen, Adrian Gonzalez, and others are out there.
One big improvement -- and the other 4 slots could be improved incrementally. (SS already *is* improved incrementally.)
Toronto says that they will trade Scutaro only after Halladay: if the big domino falls, then they go into sell mode.
IMHO, if the M's can add offense, they should cointinue in Buy mode. But supposing that it's not possible to add offense, they might want to play finger-trigger games and part out some of the car in the 11th hour.
Me? I'd be trying to buy offense on July 31, and if I couldn't, I'd move Washburn for spects.
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=== Roto Scenarios Dept. ==
Kevin Moorad says that Adrian Gonzalez (running a 150 OPS+) is more available than he used to be. Why not a 3-way with Washburn to the Yankees, their pitcher(s) on to SD at SD's choice, and two hot M's prospects to haul in Adrian Gonzalez?
Branyan 3B, Gonzalez 1B, figure something out in LF, and boom, your offense is fixed right then and there. Even 1B/DH, make Griffey a VP like Nolan Ryan, and you have a legit offense.
Hey, Gonzalez is available. He's $igned cheap. His eye ratio just went ballistic. He's the definition of a cleanup hitter. All of a sudden you have 1 Ichiro L ... 3 Branyan L ... 4 Gonzalez R to build around.
Why not throw in the extra prospect and make the commitment? :- )
July 31's for dreamin',
Jeff