Russell Branyan vs Adam Dunn
1. I love Russell Branyan.
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2. His OPS+ is 132 and dropping. This is his only year of fulltime performance. Except for this year, he's never proven ANYthing about fulltime play.
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3. Adam Dunn has 6 years in a row, counting this one, of 40+ homers. He's got a track record.
We are INFERRING that Russell Branyan can hit ML pitching in fulltime play. He has not proven that yet. We are inferring exactly nothing about Adam Dunn's ability to hit ML pitching in fulltime play. He has been doing it since he was 21 years old, posting a 136 OPS+ when he was younger than Michael Saunders is now.
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4. Adam Dunn has 6 years in a row, counting this one, of 100+ walks.
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5. Russ Branyan averages 62 walks per 162 games. Adam Dunn provides 115 walks per 162 games.
Branyan is much less of a *hitter* than Dunn is. Branyan has pretty well indicated that he can defend himself against lefties and righties, but he still has 126 whiffs against only 51 walks this year.
And that's getting worse this year: he has 31 whiffs vs 6 walks in the second half. It is an open question whether Branyan is a little overexposed now.
Dunn doesn't defend himself against anybody. Pitchers defend themselves against him.
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5. Branyan is 33 and facing a significant age-decline question. Even if Branyan, like Jack Cust, were cheated out of a career, it is possible that at ages 34-35 he'll be done with that career anyway.
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6. Adam Dunn is 29.
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7. Adam Dunn was always a blue-chip, special talent. He was a #4 hitter in the big leagues from the age of 21.
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Branyan is a neat sabermetric move; I want him back; but he is not comparable to Adam Dunn. Branyan is comparable to Jack Cust.
There is SOME chance that Branyan MIGHT provide 70-90% of Dunn's 40-HR, 100-BB performance next year. The chance of Dunn providing Dunn's performance is approximately 100%.
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Of course, it's a fair point that Dunn might drop back from his 153 OPS+ ... even if Safeco put some more wind at his back. As Taro implies, you'd probably be safer to project him to a 135-145 OPS+ or so, even in Safeco. (Then if you get a 155 or 165 or 175 season, it's gravy.)
A bankable 40 homers, 100 walks, and 130-150 OPS+ is worth banking. :- )
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As to Dunn's performance fitting onto Junior's baseball card .... as we said in the comments, go to Junior's b-ref.com card, and then sort it by OPS+.
You'll see that, if you expect any synergy at all between Dunn and Safeco Field, that Dunn's 2010-11 are easy to project as fitting onto Junior's card as his, say, #5 or #7 or #9 seasons.
Dunn doesn't play CF. But Ken Griffey Jr. of 1998-99 -- could do an awful lot for the Mariners of 2010-11. :- ) The 29-year-old Junior would make an awfully good DH for this club.
Cheers,
Dr D