Road Killed II
=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
We say that Junior's 2009 and 2007 stats differ in no important respect. No important respect, that is, except one:
11% - HR/FB, Griffey, 2009
14% - HR/FB, Griffey, 2009
18-19% - HR/FB, Griffey, in his prime
So Griffey is essentially -- today -- the same hitter he's been since he was 33, except that now a good number of his HR's die on the warning track.
How many of his homers? About 10 per season. 11% vs 19%, considering that he hits a few more FB's now, leave you at about 10 homers a year deficit.
It isn't really that Griffey can't turn around a fastball; we saw his spectacular 415-foot HR off a 97 fastball from Tony Pena. It's more that if Griffey doesn't really muscle up, he's liable to leave too many of them on the warning track, or get under them just a bit.
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This warning-track problem should not be minimized. The difference between these two seasons ....
.300 / .403 / .490 ... 140 OPS+, 22 homers --- John Olerud, 2002
.269 / .372 / .390 ... 107 OPS+, 10 homers -- John Olerud, 2003
... was basically that Olerud started leaving balls on the warning track.
Interestingly, Olerud did NOT lose much BABIP in 2003; it went from .302 in 2002 to .290 in 2003. I don't believe that a loss of 30-homer power means that a player deserves to start BABIP'ing .189, do you?
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=== Dumb Question Dept. ===
Here's a very simple question that maybe a baseball player could answer.
Go back to Griffey's 1990's tapes and you will see a hitter who swung viciously hard at the ball. His belt buckle would be snapped around pointing practically at the 1B camera well; his head would be cockeye; his bat would brain the catcher if the poor guy didn't lean away from it.
Even a few years ago, Griffey's swing had quite a bit more oomph in it than it does now. Now Griffey's swing is smooth, very controlled, and he never comes anywhere near losing his balance on the followthrough.
What if Griffey simply took a Bill Hall-style whale at the ball, like he used to? Why not?
It's not a complaint. It's a question.
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Anyway, normalize Griffey's 2009 BABIP to, say, .265 -- as it was in Safeco -- and he winds up with a .265/.365/.485 line. The gruesome road BABIP wiped out his season.
I'd like to see Griff come back in a player/coach role for 2010, with 300 well-chosen, well-rested AB's, and help Wakamatsu train up the Rainiers in the way they should go. But don't kid myself that it's going to be the consensus. :- )
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I wouldn't bet anything that I was afraid to lose, that Griffey wouldn't go to Atlanta or Chicago NL next year and hit 270/370/500. His EYE hasn't fallen off a tick; he's not late on the ball; he hasn't patented a potion for running BABIP's lower than pitchers get.
He can still hit some, especially when rested. Whether some NL team will give him a shot at it, I wouldn't be surprised. He sells a lot of jerseys.
Cheers,
Dr D