John Lackey Rumor
1. To bet on any particular golfer to win a tournament, even Tiger, is to bet a longshot against the Field.
We're at a point in the free agent derby that, you mention any one team, sure, obviously it's just chatter.
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2. I'm kind of surprised that many MC/DOV'ites didn't pick up on Olney's language, his choice of words.
Olney didn't write a Matthew Cerrone post -- hey, I like Cerrone -- in which jigsaw pieces are slid around the table and an educated suggestion is made matching this FA to that team. Olney said "rivals view" the Mariners as a potential sleeper team for Lackey. That's Olney-speak for "when I talk to the Rangers and Angels, they're telling me they expect the Mariners to be in on Lackey."
Which also isn't a guarantee or a prediction. But with Olney or Ken Rosenthal, when they use the writer-speak, they're usually picking up buffalo steps off the prairie with ears to the ground.
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3. Olney is a guy that I respect. He does a good job in letting you know when he's guessing and when he's relaying what he hears. He's got street cred with me.
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4. This isn't a POTD, but as far as health questions go, I like the fact that Lackey's injuries have been to the muscles -- forearm and bicep strains. Usually those come from snapping off cutters and breaking pitches too hard. You remember Felix.
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5. At 30, Lackey was throwing as well at the end of the year as he usually does.
This is another in Dr. D's Chris Carpenter file: great pitchers often go through even catastrophic injuries and come back firing seeds. They just know how to throw the pitches. That's all.
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6. Very underrated curve ball: career pitch value of better than -1.00 runs per 100 curve balls, and he throws it a ton, putting heavy pressure on the pitch.
It's one of those things where it doesn't look like a Kerry Wood or Jered Weaver or Josh Beckett hook, but he has legitimately great command of it like Mussina did.
If there's something that makes Lackey special, it's the fact that he can spot his curve ball. Very few ML pitchers can.
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7. Among the most-comparable pitchers to Lackey, per baseball-reference.com, are Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Chris Carpenter, and Danny Haren, with Beckett being #1.
Lackey's pitches don't look as intimidating as those of a Beckett or Carpenter, and for this reason I think Haren is a real good match to Lackey. ... Haren doesn't have a big fastball or a shellshocking curve; he does have sharp pitches and his thing is command.
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8. Three years ago, right before Lackey had his big ERA year, Inside Pitch insisted in a chat that Lackey was one of the five best pitchers in baseball.
I'm not sure he was wrong, looking back.
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9. James listed many reasons for a player being underrated -- switching teams a lot, playing in a small market, failing to score big in stats like RBI, K, ERA, failing to win a World Series ... none of these apply to Lackey.
I wonder if a player can be underrated because he looks goofy. :- ) Lackey doesn't look as goofy as I do, but I smile when I look at him. His pitches look kinda underwhelming too.
Edgar Martinez looked quite unassuming for ten years, also.
John Lackey is simply the poster boy for not looking like a star, not being perceived as a star, and yet being a star.
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10. Stars & Scrubs, babe. If you can take Harden's and Johjima's money and come up with one Lackey, it's okay with me.
Others would analyze Lackey 75% in terms of his risks and in terms of his negatives. This is a player I would analyze 75% in terms of his positives, those being that he is a terrific pitcher and that he is 30 years of age.
SSI on the Lackey quasi-rumor: Two Thumbs Way Up.
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Lackey is a very un-sexy pitcher. He's also just about the #1 reason the Angels have owned the division the last five years.
Cheers,
Dr D