POTD Adam LaRoche
Q. Would LaRoche get two thumbs up, or two thumbs down, from SSI?
A. As a consolation prize for a marquee bat like Jason Bay, Adrian Gonzalez, or even a Carl Crawford -- paid 3/$32m to hit fourth -- two huge thumbs down.
As an upgrade to a Nick Johnson concept -- taking a much smaller contract -- he could help the M's win a championship.
As a replacement for Russell Branyan -- he'd be a melancholy, but logical, risk management plan. Where Branyan could give you $1.00 or $0.01 cent, LaRoche locks in the $0.50 cents. Like two backgammon players splitting the value of the doubling cube, Adam LaRoche "settles" the Branyan cube.
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Q. Most-comparable player?
A. If you have seen Raul Ibanez, you have seen Adam LaRoche.
The similarities made me smile:
Both hit for a 115 OPS+.
Both hit for about 15-20 runs above average, if you want to look at it that way.
Both give you about 6.2 runs a game, if you like RC/27.
Both hit lefty, of course, and hit lots of line drives. The EYE is 0.50, a tick more or less, for both.
You're talking .280-ish, solid not great walks, 25 dingers, 35 gappers.
They play similar positions and have terrible SX scores.
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Q. Any differences between the two?
A. LaRoche does hit the ball in the air more, and therefore LaRoche has a considerably higher PX. He's theoretically capable of quite a few more HR's than Raul.
LaRoche is also 30, and there are good reasons to believe he's got upside from what he's shown.
But then, Raul himself had upside. In 2006 and 2009, he unloaded big seasons on hapless skeptics. I'd say that LaRoche has a season or two like that in his hip pocket, as well.
"Upside" doesn't always mean that you leap a plateau and stay there. For Shandler fans, "upside" means "capable of a great season or two along the way." That's LaRoche.
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Q. Why do you say upside?
A. Thusly:
1. The HR's have not yet caught up to the 150 PX's. Typically a guy running 150 PX's, and hitting 25 homers, is going to show you a 33-homer season or two, at some point.
2. LaRoche, a young guy, has been a 2H player. (Better that than the guy who makes hay early, and then dies of exposure the second trip around the league.)
3. LaRoche saw an immediate uptick in his play when Boston and Atlanta exhumed his body from the Pittsburgh cemetery. Very possible he's simply spent his career demoralized at the losing.
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Q. Is he a platoon guy?
A. Nope. No more than Raul is. His platoon splits are no big deal.
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Q. Is he a fit for Safeco?
A. He really is, yeah. First of all, he's a quality lefty hitter; he's a definite flyball hitter; and don't sell his power short. At this MLB.com vidlink, check his two HR's on Aug. 12th.
Aside from leaving you going, Whoa, at his power, LaRoche's swing will remind you sort of as a cross between Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey Jr.
I'm not saying he's great. But he's a lefty hitter with legit plus power.
I wouldn't get carried away; his HR scatterchart isn't totally pull.
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Q. How does he fit into Stars & Scrubs?
A. If this guy were Your Big Move, that's a shame because he's Civic allll the wayyyy.
I was philosophically opposed to Ibanez coming here for the same reason: you need a Marquee Bat somewhere. If not LF (on that team), then where? ...But of course, Raul proved us wrong.
Like we sez, it depends on who you compare LaRocheto.
To Nick Johnson? All day long, baby. To a marquee LF? Sigh. Use Holliday/Gonzalez and Tui, not LaRoche and Figgins.
To Russell Branyan? Now that's an intriguing question... Find a way to get LaRoche in here as a SUPPORT player and you've really got something.
Cheers,
Dr D