Sickels Top 20, part 2
I/O: Sickels with 1 Mariner, Ackley, in his top 100.
CRUNCH: And Ackley don't count. He's a North Carolina Mariner. In no way, shape, or form is Dustin Ackley an M's org product.
The fact is, that national analysts believe M’s prospects when they see them. Hit .300 in the bigs.
I ain't defensive about M's farmhands. I'm just delivering da truth. There's a bias against them. :shrug: Don't bother me, but take it into consideration.
What did national analysts think of Adam Jones before he crushed AAA? Of Jose Lopez before he made the AL All-Star team? Of Mark Lowe before he fanned 25 of the first 30 AL hitters he faced? :- )
That's the way it's gonna be. Fine. It don't make Rowland-Smith's curve ball any easier to hit. This ain't the NCAA Mythical National Championship. Suit up and we'll see.
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In the comments, one poster listed a bunch of ham-and-eggers that Sickels had graded B, pointing out that Saunders (at B-) was obviously better than many of them.
Saunders was the #4 PCL prospect per Baseball America, so this was a poster taking Sickels deep.
The gracious and intelligent Sickels simply admitted his mistake. Nicely.
That's awesome. But it's one more reflection of the subconscious presumption of putridness on the part of blue-and-teal prospects.
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I/O: Sickels acknowledges Michael Saunders’ talent objectively speaking – but subjectively, just doesn’t “see” him. In the comments, about 98.44% of the posters chew Sickels’ heels for …. The only M’s prospect that Sickels takes seriously.
CRUNCH: I pretty much agree with this. According to SSI, (1) objectively speaking, Saunders is a blue-chip prospect. But (2) I just don’t “see” him. I think Saunders will have 2,000 – 3,000 AB’s in the bigs. As a mediocrity.
Objectively speaking, you want to go ahead and throw the dice, see if he comes up 7's. But I'm turning away as the dice hit the green, babe.
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I/O: Dan Cortes still in the top 10.
CRUNCH: Sickels' generosity never ceases to amaze. :- ) Most analysts deep-six a prospect for any kind of public self-exposure.
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Elsewhere in the article, Sickels opines that the M's have an oddly risky minor leaguer pool, with more upside than the average org, but lower basic chances of success.
Does SSI agree with this? Well, (1) the M's don't yet have K/BB pitchers and EYE hitters like Oakland, so ..... yeah, but (2) mostly when you've got Halman 18, Carp 19, Tuiasosopo 23, etc., calling those guys less-likely than other orgs' #12 prospects is probably just reflecting your opinion of the org.
When you do get a guy with tremendous K/BB and EYE -- Pineda, Carp -- then you go to your other dismissals, lack of upside, health, whatever.
Either the M's actually do have players with more risk-reward factor than (say) Cleveland's, or the M's minors talent is simply underrated.
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I/O: Mauricio Robles at the #14.
CRUNCH: This was supposed to be the key to the Washburn deal, and the M's got at least two other offers that had ML execs' eyes popping.
So here again, you've either got Robles undersold, or Washburn was given away for 30 cents on the dollar...
Being as I root for the same team as G-Moneyball does, I'll go with (A).
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I/O: Alex Liddi climbing everybody's hits chart.
CRUNCH: Last year at this time, it was fashionable to dismiss every High Desert hitter with a wave of the hand. But Liddi is getting massive respect from everybody.
Liddi is another projectable-power guy who was named Topps Cal League player of the year, Cal League MVP, MLB.com Mariner farmhand of the year .... played in the All-Star Futures game, played for Italy in the WBC going 3-for-8 with a double and four strikeouts.
I'm a little skeptical, because his EYE is weak for a blue-chipper, and it's not like he has light-tower power to justify the 55/122 EYE. But who knows; I've never seen him play.
James' rule of thumb: a blue-chipper trashes A+ at 20, AA at 21, AAA at 22 ... then might trash the majors at 25. Liddi hit .350/.400/.600 in A+ at 20. A wind-blown Manny line is still one type of Manny line.
Sickels says AA will tell. Yeah, he'll hit like Shin-Soo Choo did in AA and then get pigeonholed as a 1.5-WAR upside guy...
So, cool,
jemanji