Bedard's 2010 Compensation, 2
=== Fangraphs Dept. ===
Anyway, still going back and you want to compare Harden's, Sheets', and Bedard's ROI per the $/WAR paradigm, let's look at Bedard's last three seasons, their actual value, and what he'd make on his contract:
- 2009: $8.6m actual 2010 value, b/ 15 starts, 83 IP, 120 days - $3m salary
- 2008: $4.9 ACV based on 15 starts, 83 IP, 120 days - $3m salary
- 2007: $11.0 ACV based on 14 starts, 91 IP, 120 days - $3m salary
If Erik Bedard came back for the 2nd half and fanned 8-10 men per game, he'd get $3m salary for doing it. And he'd pitch the playoffs for nothing (well, except for his playoff bonuses.
.
...............
Here are the figures based on 4-5 months', not 3 months' pitching, assuming that Bedard just barely makes his incentives at each level:
- 2009: $12.3m actual 2010 value b/ 20 starts, 125 IP, 120 days - $4.45 salary
- 2008: $7.0m ACV based on 20 starts, 125 IP, 120 days - $4.45 salary
- 2007: $16.5m ACV based on 21 starts, 125 IP, 120 days - $4.45 salary
.
=== Bonus Pinball, Dept. ===
How much would 4-5 playoff starts matter, compared to the 12-15 second-half starts that preceded them? Do sabermetrics allow for "leveraged" situational performance? :- )
Bedard's "unpaid" playoff performance might easily be worth as much to the franchise, and city, as all of his 2nd-half starts combined. So you can multiply the above 2010 values by 1.5x or 2.0x in the World Series scenario.
Bedard might be worth, effectively, $15-20m to the franchise and city, if he blows away the Red Sox and Yankees this October. And he'd make $3.0m for doing it.
.
=== Dr's Diagnosis dept. ===
Even based on the stringent $/WAR paradigm which is inappropriate with respect to Bedard's idiosyncratic case -- he would, in a good season, make about 30 or 40 cents on the dollar. And about 50 cents on the dollar relative to Sheets and Harden.
Jack Zduriencik thinks about the playoffs a lot more than $/WAR does (which is not at all).
When the M's load up for their first playoff series, and Felix-Lee-Bedard have the Indians' GM crying for the commish's office to change the rules of baseball (as occurred in 1995), Zduriencik will have anticipated and created that moment.
What salary paradigm are you going to create, that captures the moment we all enjoy after a Bedard win in the playoffs?
................
Earlier, SSI wondered why there was absolute radio silence this winter on Erik Bedard, and wondered if it were a college-football-hide-the-recruit-in-a-hotel syndrome. As it turns out, there was no news because Bedard directed his agent to do nothing until he knew whether he could come back to Seattle.
I am sitting here in stunned silence :- ) just boggling at the way Zduriencik combines hardball dollar negotiations with dazzling personal skills, to recruit top-drawer talent for pennies on the dollar.
In the F-500 world, Zduriencik would be worth his weight in gold for this particular combination of skills. The two best GM's I've ever seen in this regard are (now) Zduriencik and Pat Gillick.
I don't care about small variations in the salary -- I care about how desperately Erik Bedard wants to pitch here. I couldn't be more thrilled. The best part is, if and when Bedard wins a World Series for us this year, he'll want to be back in 2011-13.
Good show Capt,
Dr D