Sizzlers and Fizzlers
Picked up an issue of Baseball America off the newstand. Two 11x14 pages of 3-point font on M's prospects -- all of which have been disseminated by G and J long ago. :- )
MC / SSI denizens have already hashed and re-hashed 95% of the ideas that you'll find in the BA Top 10, but in the next three articles, let's mosh a bit off the last 5%...
.
=== Sizzlers: Dustin Ackley ===
Cockrell said, on the radio, that Ackley will get tons of spring training AB's, especially the first half. OK, we cheated already...
The magazine sez "Ask any scout about Ackley and he'll focus immediately ... on his awe-inspiring feel for hitting." Ackley is seen as a future ML batting champion, with power in his "wiry wrists and foreams." This parallels Ichiro, of course, whose abdomen is quite small, but whose forearms could score him a easy date with Olive Oyl.
Interestingly, Ackley rated a 70 for speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. That's way up there.
.........
It was provocative to hear the opinion that Ackley "draws no natural comparisons." This is also deadeye accurate with respect to Ichiro, who is completely unique in baseball history as an SB-king, power-arm RF with five different swings and an infield-hit, gap-power-at-will game.
Huh. There really isn't another .300/.400/.450 lefty who runs very well, but who hits like Edgar but with less power? :taps chin:
.
=== Fizzlers: Ian Snell ===
Was on the radio, very chipper and upbeat, giving 5-10 minutes as to why the Mariners are a top-notch org and the Pirates are a joke.
He also opined that the AL is a vastly better league than the NL -- the amount and level of talent was shocking to him, every roster loaded with players who could run and hit for power, zero easy outs per lineup compared to 3-4 easy outs per NL lineup, etc.
All the DJ's are bullish on Snell. It's understandable; it was just a few years ago that Snell was a legit Opening Day starter in the NL. I mean, what's the big deal? Just get back to doing what you were doing, right?
SSI's projection stands: if he cleaned up his mechanics and control, improved his game all around, he could become Aaron Sele for a few years. Gomen nasai.
.
=== Fizzlers (for the M's): Angels' Rotation ===
On Seattle radio, a USA Today guy was bearish this week on the Angels' starting pitching. They don't have anything like an Opening Day starter, baby. If all you did was trade John Lackey for Joel blinkin' Pineiro, you're in a lot of trouble, right?
That assessment is way off the mark. This is one 5-man rotation that you do not want to judge by its best SP. Judge the Angels' rotation by its worst SP. Here are the five 2009 ERA+ marks for the Angels' five starters:
- Weaver 120
- Saunders 98
- Santana 90 (but 110 over 2008-09 cumulative)
- Kazmir: 76 (but 117 lifetime)
- Pineiro: 118
M's fans had better hope that the Angels don't have five separate pitchers with ERA's better than average. You rarely see that in baseball, and you don't ever want to see it in your division.
You're not talking about the Angels living on a prayer that two or three kids will come through. Each one of these guys is a grizzled veteran who has mastered his craft. For Angels fans to hope the rotation goes 120-120-100-100-100 is perfectly fair. That's a very realistic possibility. And if the Angels get strong years out of these talented SP's, they're looking at >90 wins again.
It's possible that one or two of the Angels' starters will have down years, but it's also possible that they won't. I love the Angels' approach to replacing Lackey.
Cheers,
Dr D