Sound the Alarm 2
Q. What do you mean, the M's can't get complacent?
A. Bill James isn't the HAL-9000 computer, and he isn't always right. But he does have a unique history-coprocessor on the motherboard, and on Geoff Baker Live he was quite down on the M's chances in 2010.
For one thing, teams that improve by as much as the M's did in 2009 need "consolidation" years. You don't leap way ahead, and then leap way ahead again the next year. Very rare.
.
Q. But the M's have all different personnel.
A. Every team, quoth James, that goes from 100 losses to 85 wins, has 25 :- ) different players. They still need consolidation, because of broadband inertia.
James saith "they won 85 games last year and they weren't really very good. They had one starting pitcher." He asserts, by implication, that Washburn and Vargas were products of the DER and park. He asserts correctly.
...........
This team looked oddly flat the last two days, playing much too relaxed. Liddi snagged a DP short-hop, fed to Tuiasosopo, and Tui took about 9 years to bring his right hand from his hip up to his mitt, find the laces, and toss the ball over (late) to Garko. Who whiffed on it,knee-high.
Not an isolated incident.
.
Q. But the M's have Lee.
A. Yes, quoth James, "and that helps, but they'll have to score 150 more runs than they did last year" to catch the Angels of 2010...
150 more runs?! That's without Branyan, who OPS+'ed 160 in the first half last year.
...........
SSI ain't sayin' the M's can't contend. But they sure as shootin' can't ignore emerging problems with their pitching. Check that, continuing problems with their pitching.
.
Q. Anything else?
A. There's a bit of a hidden land mine here, in that we are assuming that Rob Johnson's hyper-low CERA was bogus in 2009.
It might have been, but what if it wasn't? RJ's health and Moore's talent will make RJ the #2 catcher, albeit in a job share. What if Johnson was a big, hidden part of the 2009 success, post-Washburn/Bedard?
We don't know that Moore won't have issues calling games.
...............
As James constantly reminds, the bulk of a quality ML player's value is in being average... this team is about to get a graphic illustration of that fact...
.
Q. Dr's R/X?
A. He hangs up the phone, right after Thursday's game, calls Jarrod Washburn, and gives him what he wants.
AND ... a-n-d ... Dr. D starts stretching Shawn Kelley out to be his 2010 Ramiro Mendoza, Steve Karsay style swing man. Dr D is just lucky that he has such a picture-perfect candidate for the role.
If that leaves us with too much pitching when Bedard gets back, we'll apologize later. :- ) We're not saying that the M's staff is sunk because of a lousy couple weeks in Arizona, but our 3-4-5 starters were never any ball of fire to begin with.
Let's hope the M's are proactive about their BOR. The scouts say "you can beat Seattle - shut down their lineup and rock the back of their rotation." Right now the scouts are right.
.
Be Alarmed. Be Very Alarmed,
Dr D