Casey Kotchman Re-Think?, part 3
The M's fascination with this pokey has reached epic proportions, as they now put him on the marquee as their 3-hole hitter.
Why?
Because Kotchman is good at staying out of double plays. The only thing we got goin' for us is all those first-and-thirds this year. Gotta get a batter who meshes with 'em.
:blinks:
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=== Don't Shoot the Messenger Dept. ===
SSI has warned since the day Kotchman signed, that Kotch is:
- A tomata can
- A groundball machine, particularly during rallies
- A stiff mechanical hitter without the physical gifts to hit well in the majors
- Like Chavez and Hannahan, a walking rebuke of UZR fanaticism
- Going to last about 3 weeks before M's fans go insane over the two-bouncers
- None of the above
- All of the above
So, okay. Let's double-check the ground-into-DP rates ...
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=== Let's! Go To! the Vid! e-o Tape! Dept. ===
Kotchman GIDP's into 17 double plays per 162 games, career and lately both. Let's put it into relief; these are the M's who have played at least 160 games in the majors:
- Ichiro - 5 GIDP's per 162 (1 GIDP last season)
- Figgins - 8 per year
- Griffey - 12 per year lifetime; 6 last year in 70% of a season
- RH Lopez - 17 per year ... 25 last year (lots of bullets to 3B)
- RH Gutierrez - 13 per year (surprisingly slow up the line)
- RH Wilson - 11 a year (6 last year in most of a season)
- Byrnes - 10 a year (4 last year, in 84 games)
- Bradley - 14 per year (10 in 2008 and 2009, in 75% of a season)
- RH Sweeney - 16 lifetime, but fewer than that the last 4 years
- RH Garko - 13
So here is Kotchman at 17 per full season, coming off a .382 SLG in 2009 -- .287 SLG in the American League portion of 2009 -- and he looks good at #3 because he does have the skill of not grounding into DP's. After all, the only thing we've got going for us is all the times the #1 and #2 hitters will be on.
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I personally don't respect Wakamatsu and Zduriencik any (a-n-y) less when they do something that I think is clearly a blunder. Bobby Fischer blundered. Infallibility is not only not my minimum standard for respecting people, it's not even possible.
I do think that at some point the current admin will lose its current air of mystique with the blog-o-sphere, which will eventually converge on The Truth that lies at Grand SSI Central. ;- )
Z and Wok aren't perfect, but they are the best rookie managers to come along in a good long while...
They're not magic. They're not uniquely, or even particularly, sabermetric. But they are a lot better at their jobs than most of their peers.
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If we sat down to $22 albacore salads with Z and Wok, they'd give us reasons for Kotchman #3 that they didn't give in the newspaper.
Wok is, of course, aware of Kotch's groundball rates, aware of the fact that Kotchman's BIP's bounce 2x before finding a mitt, and aware of his career GIDP rates. Even if he weren't stat-literate, Wakamatsu's been in the same division with Kotchman, watching him play.
In private, the M's would have a real reason for hitting Kotchman third. Starting with, this is one whale of a lousy offense. There's nobody else to put there.
Cheers,
Dr D