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Casey Kotchman Re-Think?, part 3

The M's fascination with this pokey has reached epic proportions, as they now put him on the marquee as their 3-hole hitter. 

Why? 

Because Kotchman is good at staying out of double plays.  The only thing we got goin' for us is all those first-and-thirds this year.  Gotta get a batter who meshes with 'em.

:blinks:

.

=== Don't Shoot the Messenger Dept. ===

SSI has warned since the day Kotchman signed, that Kotch is:

  1. A tomata can
  2. A groundball machine, particularly during rallies
  3. A stiff mechanical hitter without the physical gifts to hit well in the majors
  4. Like Chavez and Hannahan, a walking rebuke of UZR fanaticism
  5. Going to last about 3 weeks before M's fans go insane over the two-bouncers
  6. None of the above
  7. All of the above

So, okay.  Let's double-check the ground-into-DP rates ...

.

=== Let's!  Go To!  the Vid! e-o Tape! Dept. ===

  Kotchman GIDP's into 17 double plays per 162 games, career and lately both.  Let's put it into relief; these are the M's who have played at least 160 games in the majors:

  • Ichiro - 5 GIDP's per 162 (1 GIDP last season)
  • Figgins - 8 per year
  • Griffey - 12 per year lifetime; 6 last year in 70% of a season
  • RH Lopez - 17 per year ... 25 last year (lots of bullets to 3B)
  • RH Gutierrez - 13 per year (surprisingly slow up the line)
  • RH Wilson - 11 a year (6 last year in most of a season)
  • Byrnes - 10 a year (4 last year, in 84 games)
  • Bradley - 14 per year  (10 in 2008 and 2009, in 75% of a season)
  • RH Sweeney - 16 lifetime, but fewer than that the last 4 years
  • RH Garko - 13

So here is Kotchman at 17 per full season, coming off a .382 SLG in 2009 -- .287 SLG in the American League portion of 2009 -- and he looks good at #3 because he does have the skill of not grounding into DP's.  After all, the only thing we've got going for us is all the times the #1 and #2 hitters will be on.

...................

I personally don't respect Wakamatsu and Zduriencik any (a-n-y) less when they do something that I think is clearly a blunder.  Bobby Fischer blundered.  Infallibility is not only not my minimum standard for respecting people, it's not even possible.

I do think that at some point the current admin will lose its current air of mystique with the blog-o-sphere, which will eventually converge on The Truth that lies at Grand SSI Central.  ;- )

Z and Wok aren't perfect, but they are the best rookie managers to come along in a good long while...

They're not magic.  They're not uniquely, or even particularly, sabermetric.  But they are a lot better at their jobs than most of their peers.

....................

If we sat down to $22 albacore salads with Z and Wok, they'd give us reasons for Kotchman #3 that they didn't give in the newspaper. 

Wok is, of course, aware of Kotch's groundball rates, aware of the fact that Kotchman's BIP's bounce 2x before finding a mitt, and aware of his career GIDP rates.  Even if he weren't stat-literate, Wakamatsu's been in the same division with Kotchman, watching him play.

In private, the M's would have a real reason for hitting Kotchman third.  Starting with, this is one whale of a lousy offense.  There's nobody else to put there.

Cheers,

Dr D


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