Editor's Choice: Bet the Under on Texas' Rotation
=== Taro Sez ===
I think the window of opportunity has closed for the rest of the division.
This isn't a reaction to the 1-3 start (it could easily be 2-2), its a reaction to watching CJ Wilson pitch in the rotation. Hes going to be Breakout SP of 2010.
Texas is going to run away with it. I already had Texas as the favorites, but CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis (we get to see his debut tommorow) are a lot better than everybody realizes.Long-term, Texas is also in a tremendous position to stay at the top for a while. We'll give it a shot, but if the division is pretty much decided by June then it wouldn't be a bad year to rebuild and pawn off Cliff Lee and Bedard at the deadline if they're healthy.
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=== The Mainframe Crunch ===
The Champ's logic is sound. Are the premises valid?
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1. Rich Harden you can crunch as well as I can.
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2. Scott Feldman is perceived as a #2-3 starter, and in the long term I see him as an okay #4. Very mediocre stuff, 4 to 5 strikeouts a game into the bargain, good pitchability. This kind of pitcher has a short shelf life.
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3. C.J. Wilson has always been a great fave of mine. I completely agree with Taro -- that on paper, he'd be on my little 8-pitcher yellow sticky note for guys I want to steal in the late rounds of a draft.
But, see below.
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4. Scott Lewis is undoubtedly a talented pitcher, and has the K's to prove it. Here's the kind of guy you absolutely love to have in your #4-5 spot, a sort of young, lefty Gil Meche-class talent, a guy who could come through and win 16 for you.
But, see below.
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=== 30,000 Foot View ===
As talented as Wilson and Lewis are, there is a great, overarching negative here. And it bodes poorly for the development of these Ranger experiments.
Fifteen years ago, the STATS Baseball Scoreboard observed that it is much, much easier to develop a winner in a pitcher's park than in a hitter's park. Just like the 1990's Colorado stadium warped hitters' approaches to the game of baseball, so Texas warps pitchers' approaches.
It's not just the electroshock therapy of good pitches being socked for 3-run homers. It's the withering heat, the draining effect of July and August, combined with the pinball park. (The numbers don't show an extreme effect the last couple of years, but I disagree with the numbers. It's a very tough park to pitch well in.)
You could look it up. Last year Texas managed a 106 ERA+, but that is the absolute highwater mark for them. Flip back through b-ref.com and you'll find team ERA+ after team ERA+ that runs between 83 and 100.
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It's not like Texas brought in Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard. That would be one thing. Texas is trying to make the Wilson and Lewis experiments work. In that scenario, the environment becomes more important.
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As well, you are talking about only four pitchers here:
- Harden = DL for sure at some point
- Feldman = smoke and mirrors
- Wilson = very talented
- Lewis = very talented
#5 = now you're done
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So if two of these four pitchers develop issues, where are you? With the usual Texas pitching problems in August.
Talent? Absolutely. Favorites to finish ahead of the M's? Probably. And Texas could have a good staff. But scared? The team ERA+ over/under is 105 or so, and SSI bets the under. History's with SSI here.
My $0.02,
Jeff