State of the Aardsma
Q. SSI wavering any, on its prediction about Aardsma's impending implosion?
A. Really disliked the way he threw the ball Tuesday. LOL.
......
This whole question is one that is very well captured by roto, methinks. I think you'll find that EVERY rotodweeb agrees right down the line as to what David Aardsma is.
The Bob Wickman, Matt Capps, Bobby Jenks type closers -- the ones who do not have true Papelbon, KRod type skill -- the Wickmans and Guardados and Jenkses can cobble along for one season or three, as long as they don't personally begin their own destructions by walking 9 men per 9 innings...
Tell you something. I think any quality 5-year roto owner would be able to call Closers about as well as the people in the game. Just one of those things.
.
Q. How does the implosion occur?
A. For the dubious closers, like Frank Francisco, most often the luck catches up and the pseudo-closer blows three or four saves in short succession. For no reason other than that the fly balls happen to go over the fence that week, or into gaps, or whatever.
At that point, the closer's confidence vanishes in a puff of smoke, OR the manager's confidence in him vanishes, OR both occur at the same time. All of a sudden, the closer's mystique is gone, he is viewed through clear glasses, and the countdown begins...
Corollaries: a closer of questionable stuff (Eddie Guardado as an M) can come up with a slightly dead arm and lose a bit of "stuff," or a closer of questionable makeup (Brandon Morrow as an M) can start making a few more mistakes, and this begins the Hot Seat Syndrome...
.
Q. Which of these applies to Aardsma?
A. Aardsma is a closer of questionable skill, in that he's throwing 90% fastballs and throwing them wildly... he could implode either via battles with control or via a week's worth of painful HR's...
Aardsma can and will implode at some time in SSI's opinion, but that could be this year, next, or 2012...tonight's save itself was less than awe-inspiring...
..............
Bring up something that's bemusing. We remember two or three years ago, USSM offering an opinion that Brandon Morrow was overrated, comparing Morrow to ... David Aardsma. Who at the time was bouncing around baseball as a useless pitcher with a big arm.
That seemed an odd comparison to me at the time, but that comp looks a lot more intriguing three years on. :kudos:
.
Q. The prospectus on Aardsma -- that is SSI's opinion, or the roto take in general?
A. Again, I think that every 5-year rotodweeb would sign off on everything we'd opined here. Shandler, for one, gives four different reasons he doesn't buy Aardsma as a closer (XERA ... H%, Strand% ... Fly balls ... CTL history) and advises his readers to grab Shawn Kelley in expectation of 20 saves this year.
.
Q. Any good news?
A. I do like the fact that Aardsma has decided that he is a great pitcher. :- ) Because of that, we upgrade him a notch or two ... say, to 10th on your AL-only closer list...
Best guess, Aardsma now with a 60%, 70% chance of finishing the season as closer. Because he has a big fastball, a lot of self-belief, and an org that is comfortable with him, he moves up from "Dead Man Walking" to "Shaky" in roto parlance. "Shaky Closer" isn't a big pejorative. About six teams in the league have a highly-paid "Shaky Closer" at any given time.
Aardsma is now a Shaky Closer over a 2-, 3-year scan, which isn't that bad.
................
Bottom line, a rotodweeb accepts a guy like Aardsma if a legit closer is not available, but has plenty of insurance around, and is ready to swap out on two seconds' notice...
David Aardsma, at present, does not make the top 5 list of Seattle Mariner problemos...
.
My $0.02,
Dr D