Jose Lopez' Stock Soars - 2
SSI Magic 8 Ball had guessed that the moment Lopez played an ML reg-season game at third, he'd never in his career see another game at 2B. Except as a backup. That looks like a given now.
Now that Jose Lopez is going to be a Gold Glove candidate at 3B, rather than a dubious 2B, his value goes way up.
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=== Comparables ===
As JLo settles into 3B as a plus glove and a .280, 25-homer, 90-RBI bat, one of his natural comparables becomes.... Adrian Beltre! Beltre also had several years as a 20-25 homer, 90 RBI, low-OBP hitter. He wasn't as good a hitter as Lopez is, but was very similar stylistically.
Take Adrian Beltre, slide 5-10 of his defensive runs over into offensive runs created, and you're pretty close to Jose Lopez. JLo is, right now, Beltre red-shifted a bit towards offense.
Travis Fryman and Gary Gaetti and Brooks Robinson, in his 30's, were also similar players to what Lopez is right now, though Lopez retains upside.
If you were in the bleacher section that wanted to retain Adrian Beltre for $10M per year or so, congrats. Capt Jack scored you a slight variant on Beltre for 2/$8m.
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Incidentally, Beltre is hitting a woeful .259/.268/.315 in Fenway. In the Baker interview, Bill James (a Red Sox advisor) contradicted Dr. D by saying that the Sox don't expect Beltre to benefit much from Fenway. They figure that the trajectories of Beltre's fly balls will bounce off, not go over, the Green Monster.
They paid $10m per, to get an average-solid 3B who will, relative to the average 3B, gain them runs with the mitt and lose them runs with the bat.
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Beltre, coming off a terrible 2009 season, made $10m x 2 years in Boston. This is also a good figure for what Jose Lopez would be worth on the FA market: $10m x 4 years (since he is not past 30 as Beltre is).
Which raises the question: why would Jose Lopez, making $3m and $5m the next two years -- and with obvious upside remaining -- be anything other than one of the most desirable trade commodities in the league?
Magic 8 Ball says that as soon as GM's scout Lopez' appealing defense at 3B, they're going to line up. I wonder if Zduriencik foresaw this.
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=== San Diego ===
Rebuilding clubs don't insist on minor-leaguers only. They also want to underpay players who can help them now. There's a game Friday night.
The Pads have a big hole at 2B, and Lopez is a young infielder making 1/3 the salary he deserves. But Lopez is establishing himself as a 3B...
Right this second, the Pads are 9-6, granted. But they are not going to be able to sign Gonzalez, period. I wonder what their long-term plans are on Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks. Headley has played most of his games in the OF the last two years, though of course that might have been because of Kouzmanoff...
SD has the Adam Dunn-like, 400-lb. Kyle Blanks in RF and Venable in LF, with Headley at 3B. I wonder if, in a Lopez deal, they would set it up Blanks 1B, Lopez 3B, Venable-Headley OF. That's a pretty smooth config if you ask me.
Alternatively, there's always Capt Jack's patented 3-way deal :- )
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Cheers,
Dr D