POTD Hiroyuki Nakajima - Bust scenario
G-Money blasts away at Dr. D's rope-a-dope with heavy body shots to the Kazuo Matsui region:
If we're okay with that, and we don't think Nakajima is gonna faceplant power-wise like Kazuo Matsui did, then fine, I can be interested in using him to upgrade our SS position. Remember, though, that Kaz hit 23, 24, 36 and 33 HRs in his last 4 seasons in Japan, with very good batting averages those years (.305 to .332).
He never cleared 10 HRs in the bigs in any season, which made his career average of under .270 the best thing he had going for him. Nakajima has 21, 22 and 20 HRs the last 3 years, with a batting average between .309 and .331. The benefit with Nakajima would seem to be that he can take a walk - for a Japanese player anyway. He walks like Ichiro did in Japan, though he Ks a lot more.
PROPS: The Kazuo Matsui comp is clear.
And, as usual, G underlines it. In two different colors. And then highlights it. Without any doubt, there is a Kazuo Matsui scenario in Nakajima's 5-way USA timefork.
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SLOPS: Kazuo Matsui seems to have been the major bust among NPB superstars.
You certainly don't lose interest in AAA blue-chippers because of one, um, Adam Jones... okay, cheap shot. You don't lose interest in #3 draft picks because of Jeff Clement.
And you don't figure that the next NPB superstar is a caution, because you're locked in on one or two spectacular busts.
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I believe that Kazuo Matsui had considerably less hitting talent than players like Godzilla, Ichiro, Aoki, and Johjima. Matsui made his living with his legs, and I believe that his tremendous speed always made his hitting look more special than it was.
Nakajima looks, from a distance, like he's got quite a bit more hitting ability than Kazuo Matsui did. I could be wrong.
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In this Nakajima vs Darvish video, you can see that Nakajima doesn't suddenly wimp out and get cheated against great pitchers.
A few NPB hitters cut their swings way down when they get to America, but this doesn't seem likely to be the case here.
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Nakajima has the right-center double in this video. Taro & co. can correct me if I'm wrong, but Nakajima seems to have the Bret Boone-, Edgar-style natural power to the off field, that is usually key for RH hitters in Safeco.
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Don't get me wrong. If Nakajima is a mediocrity, Yamauchi-san ossifies his place in the 9-man lineup, and it aces out Nick Franklin, there's a train wreck there.
But: when the M's re-signed Johjima, Bavasi announced "this isn't a lineup; it's a contract." The M's are free to bench their Japanese players.
And if Franklin is a .300/.370/.500 hitter in the bigs, the M's are smart enough to play him somewhere. :famous last words:
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A simple translation of Nakajima's stats leaves him at somewhere around .270/.330/.420 in Safeco.
We're not talking about whether he'd hit fourth. :- ) We're talking about whether he'd hit better than what the M's have had: OBP's in the 200's and SLG's in the 200's.
Very tough to imagine this NPB assassin providing the Mariners with less than they have had. The delta is almost certain to be large.
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