Dunn 4x$14M to ChiSox
Q. Is 4/$56M the right number?
A. Sure, roughly.
Analysis around the 'net will focus on whether $10 vs $12 vs $12M is "correct," and whether 3 vs 4 years is "correct."
You can't measure microns with yardsticks, and the White Sox do not have a hard salary cap.
You can't calculate X/Y to four places, when Y is indeterminate. The available money changes depending on circumstances. You save $2M, or spend it, and that usually doesn't change your roster in the real world, unless you're Oakland. It changes your cashflow.
And the biggest difference, fans of 500-run teams might have noticed, is in having an Adam Dunn or not having one.
$2M per year matters when deciding on Aardsma or Jack Wilson. It shouldn't often determine whether an Adam Dunn joins your club.
What was it, last year when $10M a year was considered an overpay for Dunn? MLB comes to its senses.
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Q. How do you project Dunn? How will he perform in a small park?
A. Dr. D has always considered Three True Outcomes (TTO) players to be Rohrschach tests. Ask a guy what he thinks of, say, Mark Reynolds before he realizes Reynolds is a TTO player and you'll get a window to that guy's baseball subconscious. :- )
Personally, I don't bet money, but I like gambling as a concept. Some people hate risks. They tend to dislike TTO players. Me, I tend to disproportionately like TTO players like Dunn, Branyan, and Cust.
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Dunn is the same thing every blinkin' year. 40 homers, 100 walks, 100 RBI, 100 R.* He's had the same year each season from 2004-10. The only other guy I remember being this consistent, is Manny Ramirez.
Dunn is quick to the ball and he doesn't have to overswing. That's not a guarantee, but I like his chances. If you're in the FA market, you're spending money without guarantees.
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Dunn is Jim Thome, minus 5 homers and 10 walks. Thome's better, sure, but then Thome is better than everybody. Dunn is as close as you're going to get to him.
Thome maintained his 150 OPS+'s until age 37 ... and last year, at age 39, his OPS+ was 178 in a small park.
"Old players' skills," that serves as a better warning against average ballplayers than it does against Hall of Famers (I would estimate Dunn's chance at the HOF as around 30%, 40%, and his chance revolves around his chance to hit say 550 homers).
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Q. You like TTO guys, because of your personality?
A. And because they change the scoreboard.
Adam Dunn not only "creates" lots of runs in the formulas -- he also drives in, and scores, lots of runs on the field.
Some guys "create" 100 runs -- but drive in 80 and score 80. Adam Dunn "creates" 100 runs -- and drives in and scores 100.
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Q. Should the Mariners have been in on Dunn for 4/$56M?
A. Well, organizationally they should get serious about winning a pennant period, and should raise their payroll by about $30, $40M. So in that sense, yeah.
Oddly, two years and one very sweeeeet Smoak/Lee deal later, I don't see Dunn as quite as good a fit as I did earlier.
I agree in principle with Sandy, that a 4x$14M deal for a DH ---- > ossifies your Stars & Scrubs flexibility if ---- > your kids haven't yet taken root around the diamond yet.
If the Mariners had no Justin Smoak, I'd say they had to contort to get some RBI in here. But in my view, Smoak takes enough pressure off that they can afford to skip the Dunn route.
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Q. Got any more Adam Dunns in there anyplace?
A. The Mariners have a TTO masher available to DH for them next year, as I recall. I wonder if they're interested in re-up'ping their poor man's version of Adam Dunn. 70% of the production at 10% of the contract, maybe?
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Q. The SSI approach to spending $$ this particular winter?
A. M's have already said there isn't much to spend. The deal-ee-oh this winter is trades. So agility's the thing.
Here's one winter where we've got real enthusiasm for the idea of keeping $$ as clear as possible for accommodating Upton and Rasmus tactix.
Cheers,
Dr D
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*Okay, 97 runs. Per 162.