Adam Dunn and Boog Powell
Sandy details out the comp list a bit...
Dunn's comp-list is compromised by the reality that his BA is significantly lower than all the guys on his comp list - but his walks are higher than everyone.
He chooses to take the count deeper. Not a serious point-of-difference IMHO.
.
Strawberry's career can't be a good comp, since the ugly ending had little to do with ability or age.
That fact the ChiSox have gotten so many years from Thome after his (age 34 - heh heh) disaster with the Phillies, when he hit .712 in 59 games -- is a likely boon to Dunn.
If I'm the ChiSox GM, I might well be "hoping" for a horrid age 34 season - so I can re-sign him cheap and get another 3 years.
Almost all of the guys on Dunn's comp list -- Boog Powell, Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Jose Canseco, etc -- were the biggest guys in the league during their eras. This is a wonderful point of similarity.
B-Ref.com's list, in this case, does not consist merely of guys who had the same number of singles, walks, and doubles at the same age. It's a list full of great big guys who hit the TTO way, and who did it about as well (though a bit better) than Dunn is dong it.
..........
I'd caution that Adam Dunn is not the player that Jim Thome was, not the player that Reggie was, not the player that Bonds was. But he certainly comp'ed out okay to the other guys.
In fact, Dr. D watched Boog Powell play, and I can't imagine a more perfect comp for Adam Dunn.
Bill James used to run lists like "Ken Griffey Jr. is the Willie Mays of the 1990's" and so forth: I'd go so far to say that Adam Dunn is the Boog Powell of our era.
Boog:
- Hit left
- Threw right
- Was super tall
- Was super strong, and he was somewhat overweight (big farm boy)
- A guy with high BB and high K and high HR
- A weird first baseman
- A 134 OPS+ man lifetime (Dunn 133)
Boog even facially looked quite a bit like Adam Dunn.
Boog Powell was himself a Rohrschach test: not only a scary TTO guy, but a sloppy-looking guy who didn't dignify your ballclub.
Earl loved Boog. Worried about his flaws? Earl told him to eat as much as he wanted, since Earl believed that if Powell were in a good mood, he'd hit better. That shows you just how flexible was the mind of Earl Weaver.
.............
Boog is pretty much the worst comp in Dunn's comp set, and Boog was a great player at ages 31, 32, and 33. He was mediocre at 34, and then dunn. If the White Sox get that, they'll be thrilled (although the fans will focus on the Y4 overpay).
.
Looking at this list, I'd consider Boog the DOWN scenario, though a realistic (30%, 40%) scenario, and the Sox could get more.
But, I think the more likely route is Dunn is great production in 6 of the next 8 years - with the leading variable being HEALTH.
And if the knees go, as they did with Boog, now there's the DH.
.
Anybody know how Branyan's back is doing?,
Dr D