Sandy details out the comp list a bit...
Dunn's comp-list is compromised by the reality that his BA is significantly lower than all the guys on his comp list - but his walks are higher than everyone.
He chooses to take the count deeper. Not a serious point-of-difference IMHO.
.
Strawberry's career can't be a good comp, since the ugly ending had little to do with ability or age.
That fact the ChiSox have gotten so many years from Thome after his (age 34 - heh heh) disaster with the Phillies, when he hit .712 in 59 games -- is a likely boon to Dunn.
If I'm the ChiSox GM, I might well be "hoping" for a horrid age 34 season - so I can re-sign him cheap and get another 3 years.
Almost all of the guys on Dunn's comp list -- Boog Powell, Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Jose Canseco, etc -- were the biggest guys in the league during their eras. This is a wonderful point of similarity.
B-Ref.com's list, in this case, does not consist merely of guys who had the same number of singles, walks, and doubles at the same age. It's a list full of great big guys who hit the TTO way, and who did it about as well (though a bit better) than Dunn is dong it.
..........
I'd caution that Adam Dunn is not the player that Jim Thome was, not the player that Reggie was, not the player that Bonds was. But he certainly comp'ed out okay to the other guys.
In fact, Dr. D watched Boog Powell play, and I can't imagine a more perfect comp for Adam Dunn.
Bill James used to run lists like "Ken Griffey Jr. is the Willie Mays of the 1990's" and so forth: I'd go so far to say that Adam Dunn is the Boog Powell of our era.
Boog:
Boog even facially looked quite a bit like Adam Dunn.
Boog Powell was himself a Rohrschach test: not only a scary TTO guy, but a sloppy-looking guy who didn't dignify your ballclub.
Earl loved Boog. Worried about his flaws? Earl told him to eat as much as he wanted, since Earl believed that if Powell were in a good mood, he'd hit better. That shows you just how flexible was the mind of Earl Weaver.
.............
Boog is pretty much the worst comp in Dunn's comp set, and Boog was a great player at ages 31, 32, and 33. He was mediocre at 34, and then dunn. If the White Sox get that, they'll be thrilled (although the fans will focus on the Y4 overpay).
.
Looking at this list, I'd consider Boog the DOWN scenario, though a realistic (30%, 40%) scenario, and the Sox could get more.
But, I think the more likely route is Dunn is great production in 6 of the next 8 years - with the leading variable being HEALTH.
And if the knees go, as they did with Boog, now there's the DH.
.
Anybody know how Branyan's back is doing?,
Dr D
Boog was a contact hitter though. You look at his most similar batter profiles and the top names are Buhner, Burrell, Sexson, Glaus, and Strawberry.
Most of these guys were still productive in their age 31 seasons and then fell off dramatically at age 32.
Dunn just posted his career-worst peripherals in '10. With this player type, I'd be concerned.. He ran a career high BABIP despite a career worst skillset to boot.
Reports of Dunn's imminent collapse are premature.
His "career high" BABIP in '10 was .329. It is true it was a career high...but considering his BABIP in .09 was .324 it was barely a career high. There was a 5/1000 difference! It just as likely shows his "hitting it where they ain't" is improving. His BABIP in the previous three seasons ('06-'08) was . 276, .305, .258. That career high may just show an improving tendency....not an outlier season. What do you think?
His ISO was right in line with his previous 5 seasons.
His line drive rate in '08 was 17.9%, in '09 was 20.5% and last was was again 17.9%. Nothing out of whack there. Although it is interesting that his BABIP in '08 was that .258 rate and then last year was .329 despite the same LD rate. it is just as likely that '08 was an unlucky year.
He did have a career low BB% of 11.9% vs. a career avg. of 16.3% But that is almost certainly due to the fact that his OZone swing rate was a career high 28.5%. His career average is 18.4%.
He was certainly more aggressive. However, look a bit deeper and you see that his O-contact rate was 48.4%. That was a career high (Avg. of 43.3%). He ripped at more borderline pitches....but he made contact with more of them, too. That hardly sounds like an eroding skill set!
His Zone swing rate was 68.3%...a career high. But since his career average here is more than 66% it is hardly a concern. What it shows is incredibly consistency. The hallmark of his career.
He's 30 years old....he's a LF/1B/DH. 30 is still young, for goodness sake. He has NO history of injury. He isn't missing balls he swings at (just the opposite). And it appears he's hitting the ball harder than ever.
Over the last seven seasons he has OPS+ between 130 and 146 six times. In '06 he completely crashed and disgraced himself with only a 114 number. Those 40 HR's that year? Blah! :)
Here's betting a bottle of fine scotch that he has three superb years for the Chi-Sox and one off year where he only hits 33 HR's or so.
4X$14M? Bargain Basement, Baby!
Sheeesh.....we're paying $26M over the next three years for Figgins. I would trade those contracts in a New York minute!
Maybe if Bill Veeck was still in Chi-town we could swap Figgy and a couple of truck loads of disco records for Dunn. Throw in a little person and a jersey with the number 1/8, just to sweeten the pot. Veeck would do it, don't you think Doc?
Imagine.....Ichiro, Ackley and Smoak on base and The Big Donkey to mash them in.
Don't you think Felix dreams about stuff like that?
moe
He fanned 97 times per 162 games ---- > playing in the 1960's and 1970's.
During Boog's career, the strikeout norm was about 25% lower than it now; 100 strikeouts would often put you among the league leaders. In 1965, for example, Powell was #5 in the AL in K's.
... Powell wasn't quite as extreme a TTO player as Dunn, but Powell was certainly a high-BB, high-K, high-HR guy.
Let's not throw Bone, Sexson, and Strawberry into the category of "contact hitters". :- )
Chone Figgins, that's a contact hitter.
The BABIP are far above career norms the past two years despite having two of his poorer LD% years. All other critical periphs are all career worsts (O-wsing%, SwS%, CT%, etc.) and he also did worse vs LHP and power pitching.
Its possible its just a random bad year, but I'd be concerned about the guy personally.
My bad Doc. Even so, thats a very different era (who knows what Boog would do in present MLB). I think the current guys are more relevant comps.
Though us old guys can sure see the reincarnation there. Like Unit and Koufax, Mays and Griff ... Boog and Dunn are spittin' images a generation apart...
Oh yeah, Justin Smoak and Lou Gehrig.
:- )
Probably the best comp.
But ... I think you may be a tad ... (darn, can't think of the right word -- naive? flippant?) ...
... in regards to BA.
Think of it this way. How often does a .214 hitter in his 30s get re-signed as a starter? (cough Griffey cough Sexson cough). And how often does that work out?
Don't get me wrong -- as I noted, I like Dunn for 6 (of 8) good years left in him. I'm just warning that due to his lower than comps BA, he's in greater danger of a 'shocking' Sexonesque demise earlier than expected.
Honestly, for all the positive vibe that everyone has for Branyan - he hit .215 with Seattle in 2010 (at age 34). Watch what happens with Branyan (and his back) over the next two years, and I think we get a decent read on what to expect from Dunn as he nears the end of his newest deal.
If there's a current blind spot in the SABR world, it is in treating EVERY BABIP skew as purely luck. With aging (and injured) players, it ain't all luck. Nobody wanted to listen to the bad news when I was saying Griffey was done, done, done before the 2010 season began.
I think - from a SABR perspective - yes, it's possible for a guy with a 120 patience rating and uber-power (like Dunn) to hit .200/.330/.480 and still be valuable. But, I think from a psychological perspective, the .200 average is *SO* ingrained that it is effecitvely impossible for a PLAYER to accept this. As the average plunges toward .200, he *CANNOT* accept it and continue approaching ABs the same way. Instead, the need to "protect" and "not look foolish" (even for the TTO guy who accepts Ks easily), is destined to impact the approach at the plate, and what happens (in EVERY case I can find is power is sacrificed to try and stay above the Mendoze line. When that happens - it's over. No saving throw.
I've actually found only one person who seemed immune to the Mendoza Zone Effects -- Dave Kingman, who truly didn't care about anything except hitting his 35 dingers a year -- though honestly, his age 34 season actually smells like a "back off" year following his .204 average at age 33.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deerro01.shtml - this guy
Did not care about hitting .210. :) Or .175 for that matter. He always had the ambition dialed up to 11 and fanned approximatrely 45 trillion times per AT BAT (LOL).
Another comp to Cust types - Mickey Tettleton. That's a high-side comp...but he didn't seem to mind hitting a very consistent .235 to .245 and taking a billion walks.
Nice comp, Matt. (Especially since Deer basically tanked at age 32). :O
...while batting .180-something one of those years...LOL That guy was hilarious to watch. His swing was HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE.
The more modern guy I remember with a similar swing was Jeremy Burnitz. I'm surprised Burnitz didn't dislocate his shoulder at some point just from taking those VISCIOUS full-body cuts...LOL