Milton Bradley 2011 - the Good
Bradley's 2010 numbers were far below his ability, and far below his 2011 projection.
Miguel Olivo in 2005 hit .151/.172/.276 for the Mariners and he had 33 K's to 1 BB in his last 85 AB's for the M's. He looked totally incapable of hitting A+ pitching, much less major league pitching.
There wasn't a way in the world you could have told anybody who saw that, that Miguel Olivo was worth another game, much less another season. Was he? The next year, 2006, he slugged .440 as a catcher (and in 2009, slugged .490 for the Royals).
Olivo was fouled up in 2005, in contradistinction to him simply being unable to play major league baseball.
The same is probably true of Bradley. He's messed up. Huge. It's very unlikely that he's not capable of playing well, even if his mind gets healed.
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Milton Bradley had, and still has, one of the best batting EYEs in the majors, and baseball is all about the strike zone.
He isn't as quick or strong as he was in 2007-08 when he was an MVP candidate. But he was only 31 in 2010, and there's no reason he shouldn't hit for 5-6 runs per 27 in 2011:
- 2003 - 8.0 RC/game
- 2004 - 5.3
- 2005 - 6.0
- 2006 - 5.8
- 2007 - 7.3
- 2008 - 8.5
- 2009 - 5.2
- 2010 - 3.3 (1.4 in the second half when he was in torment)
Bradley flashed the 8.0 RC/game bat when he was young, and he consolidated it at ages 29-30.
What comes after the 8 runs per game at ages 29-30? What normally comes after, is a long string of seasons at 6+ runs per game. Bradley's b-ref.com comparables averaged fully 9 (!!) seasons of production after age 32. Read that: guys with Bradley's career to date, usually have all kinds of gas left in the tank.
The eyes confirm that Bradley's demons haven't been physical; they've been mental. Bradley was able to get around on the ball in 2010, and his HR/F was 11%.
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Shandler, in BaseballHQ, concurs. Though he gives an acid comment about Bradley being a clubhouse cancer with declining skills, still he projects Bradley to a large rebound (.270/.370/.425) "with upside" (from there).
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=== Also Good ===
... in addition to the fact that Bradley's saber track projects a 5.2 - 6.4 RC/game season for him in 2011, that is:
Bradley's a left hand hitter in Safeco, with walks.
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When Bradley has an UP year, it does not mean 30 homers and 100 RBI's. If you're thinking, "ah, who even cares. It's totally impossible for him to go 30/100/100 anyway. What's the point."
True!, that Bradley won't get 30 homers -- he's never hit 30 in his life.
An UP season for Bradley is a near-.400 OBP, with gap power .... and to be an invisible part of a lineup that does very well.
- 2008 - Rangers score 900 runs with Bradley
- 2007 - Padres win 89 games with Bradley
- 2006 - Oakland A's win 93 games with Bradley hitting #3
and like that.
If the M's got Bradley going, he wouldn't hit 20 homers. But he would be a key part of a Beane-style offense that surprised a lot of people.
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Also "Good": Bradley appreciates the way that Seattle has treated him.
Don't let the emotional resonance frazz out your radar. If and when Bradley gets a mental re-set, he'll probably put up seasons at least as good as the 2006 season that he put up for Oakland.
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