POTD Michael Pineda: Dr's Prognosis 2011
Q. What does Dr. D see for Michael Pineda in April-May 2011?
A. It can go either way. Pineda's not a guarantee.
There is the possibility that Pineda could be the best pitcher in the league in the first half of 2011, but there are several things that could go wrong:
- Maybe he will still be telegraphing his offspeed stuff
- Maybe he will miss too many pitches in the center of the plate; his control is not yet completely developed
- Maybe .... whoops, I'm out of possible problems
The quality of the offspeed stuff is not an issue, for two reasons: (1) it's a lot better than people think, and (2) he doesn't need it nearly as much as people think.
.
Q. Is there a book on him yet?
A. A lot of times, a spectacular young starter will come in and land with a splash ... it will take a while for the batters to retreat foxhole-to-foxhole and then cobble together a game plan.
Felix Hernandez ran a 2.67 ERA in his first go-round, a 158 ERA+ in twelve starts ... the next year, he ran a 4.52 ERA (in Safeco) as the batters put a coherent game plan on him. That being to sit dead red and try to hit his over-challenging fastballs out.
Pineda commands those 96 mph within the strike zone, so I honestly couldn't tell you what the right idea would be against him. Bucket of peanuts to distract him as he comes in out of the bullpen?
Real good chance, 60% maybe?, that Pineda is a sensation, the first two months.
.
Q. Where does he go in the draft?
A. In my AL-only roto league, 15 American League starters have been taken and Pineda's still there, I'm taking him.
And if he's the #16 starter in the league, how can you leave a weapon like that off the battefield?
.
Q. Stats?
A. Spot me the premise that Pineda stays healthy enough for 25-30 starts:
- 180 IP
- 3.30 ERA
- 150 K
- 70 BB
- 30 starts, 18-20 quality starts
Yeah. I know that would make him one of the league's best starters. Which he is.
.... Hey, BP's got him for 3.49, 87:35 in 103 innings, and that was assuming him to stay down until June. Guess PECOTA likes his slider too.
.
Be Afraid,
Dr D