SSI Crunch: Rendon vs Cole, 2
Q. What are Gerrit Cole's chances of becoming an Opening Day starting pitcher?
A. You make the call.
Here is the list of the college SP's, pretty much, from 2000-2007, who were as highly regarded then, as Gerrit Cole is now...
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2007 - DAVID PRICE. Became an ML star, immediately after one full year in the minor leagues.
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2007 - Daniel Moskos, #4 overall, LHP 95 mph type - we'll leave him out of consideration. He probably wasn't as highly regarded as Cole; more in the James Paxton range. He's one of the Pirates' many disappointments.
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2006 - In this amazing draft, the pitchers went 1 Hochevar, 2 Reynolds, 4 Lincoln, 5 Morrow, 6 Miller, 7 Kershaw, and 10 Lincecum.
Although Reynolds and Lincoln were taken higher, I'm going to go ahead and say that back in 2006, they were not thought as being the kind of dominators that Cole is now. They were percentage picks by their orgs.
Kershaw doesn't count for our purposes, though his results would boost the Cole momentum in Seattle.
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2006 LUKE HOCHEVAR - At the time, he was thought of as every bit as tasty as Cole is now - probably more so, since he was so polished for his age.
Six years later, he's got a career ERA of 5+ in the bigs, though he does have a future.
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2006 BRANDON MORROW - The M's, frustrated with his makeup, bailed. He's now a 10K+ starter and one of the top young SP stars in the game.
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2006 ANDREW MILLER - One of the highest-regarded pitchers in years. Fell from #1-1 only because of signability concerns.
Complete bust. Career ERA of 5.84 in the majors. Walked 7+ men per game last year.
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2006 TIM LINCECUM - Sigh.
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2005 RICKY ROMERO - Power lefty was first pitcher taken in 2005 draft, amidst all the Longorias, Tulowitzkis, Zimmermans, Brauns and... Clements.
Romero took 4-5 years to get to the bigs, and has begun to emerge as a good but not great young pitcher. ... not quite what the M's would be looking for from Gerrit Cole.
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2004 JUSTIN VERLANDER. ... and remember, he started twenty (20) games in the minors, before going 17-9 in the majors as a rookie.
One year in the minors, and then stardom in the majors, is perfectly feasible; the pitcher holds the ball. Baseball history is littered with 22-, and even 20-year-old pitching stars.
It ain't like hitting. James Paxton could win 16 games for the M's next year.
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2004 PHILIP HUMBER - It's debatable, but I'd say that Humber had his Gerrit Cole pub as a senior. He fanned 12+, walked 2+, and led Rice to a national championship.
Major disappointment complete with TJ surgery, holdouts, etc.
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2003 Kyle Sleeth - Although he was the #3 overall, and a college star, I'm going to say that he was not thought of as a Cole-type dominator. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Complete injury washout.
2003 Tim Stauffer - If I recall him right, he was a multi-sport athlete more in the Brad Lincoln mold than in the Verlander / Cole mold.
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2002 Bryan Bullington - we're going to give Cole's agent (Boras - sigghhhh) a pass here too; Bullington was the #1 but was from a small conference and was drafted because the Pirates thought they could pay him less than Kazmir, Fielder and co.
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2001 MARK PRIOR - Thought of, in his day, as The Ultimate Prospect.
Pitched exactly 9 games in the minors, and then promptly fanned 11+ National League hitters per game as a rookie. You thought Verlander, Lincecum and Weaver were quick?
In case you forgot that any pitcher can get injured, Prior reminds, but he still gave the Cubbies 650 IP (two full seasons and two half-seasons) as one of the game's best starters.
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2001 Dewon Brazelton - Doubt that he was thought of as a man among boys in that draft; the highest he ever got as a minor league prospect was #57.
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2000 Adam Johnson - Was the #2 overall out of Cal-State Fullerton, but only 19 or 20 at the time ... I don't remember him well enough to say whether he was taken by the Twins as a signability guy or what.
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Q. So how many draws is that at a Gerrit Cole type?
A. Looks like 8x Cole-level lotto tickets over the period 2000-2007, of which two became Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander types......
- Franchise SP's immediately: Lincecum + Verlander
- Franchise SP, injured after 650 IP: Prior
- Good young pitchers after some delay: Morrow + Romero
- Busts: Humber + Miller + Hochevar
We're not talking about top-10 drafted pitchers here; those results would be much worse. We're talking about SP's who dominated their drafts, who had Cy Young stuff and who had the astronomical K/BB's to go with it.
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Q. Does that look representative to you?
A. Yeah, I'd say so. If you drafted Gerrit Cole this June, I'd say the lotto would look like this:
- 33% - Cy Young candidate within about a year
- 33% - Good young strikeout pitcher, though maybe with delay, soreness, or other hiccups
- 33% - Huge bust
That's got to be about right.
We're not just using a 2000-2007 "sample" (sic). All of baseball history gives you about that feel, for your chances, if you import a great Japanese pitcher, or a great college pitcher, or a great Negro League pitcher, or whatever.
Hey, a third the ML stars from last year won't be stars this year.
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