The LH Smoak has Junior's Power to LF
.
Image from HitTrackerOnline.com. G-Money was impressed by Smoak's lefty homer into the LF bullpen:
Power to RCF the last few games for Smoak as a lefty. Double off the wall and a no-doubt HR to the dead side of the ball field in cold weather when the ball shouldn't fly.
He's coming around on his greed problem. ;)
Smoak: .275/.388/.475/.863 with 5 doubles and 1 HR in 12 games, with 8BB and 9K in 40 ABs.
That's about what I'd want to see from him in a really good first run around the league, and I think he's just getting started. A-Gone posted a .862 OPS his first full season at age 24. Smoak should have a lower average but higher OBP, so that washes. If "all" we got was that, I'd be satisfied.
Cust is the guy who's just bombing right now. I didn't want Smoak to be forced to carry the offense, so adding Cust was at least a modicum of MOTO talent helping out...but he's being VERY unhelpful at the moment. I'm glad he can take a walk or we'd get less than nothing out of him the first 2 weeks of the season.
I don't want Bradley and Smoak to have to carry my offense, but beggars can't be choosers. The promising start by Smoak, even as he works through the bumps in the road, has to be encouraging.
HR by Ackley last night, btw - once he gets those wheels on the ground and gets up here we can start getting our offense aligned for the future.
~G
Smoak's blast to LF untied a tie game, and we replayed his swing quite a few times. We'll spare you the usual bullet list, but --- > his swing was a loud echo of the young Ken Griffey Jr's homers to the off field.
Ssmoak's sswing had many things in common with Griffey's when he used to hit those. The flight of the ball was shaped the same way, also ... the homer was to straightaway LF, it was 80' high according to HTO, it cleared the "carport" and almost hit the chain-link fence, travelling 373 x 79 feet.
It occurred in cold weather, and I don't remember Junior hitting any that were any farther to straightaway LF, do you?
As G notes, Smoak a few days before also just missed a homer to deep LCF, about 380 feet away, that hit the fence just a foot or two short.
The LH Smoak appears to have Junior's power to left. That's sayin' a lot.
.
=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
The mortar shot to LF was a welcome confirmation of Smoak's 40-homer power.
If Tom Wilhelmsen threw a 101 fastball, or Josh Lueke did the same thing, that one pitch would affect their entire evaluation. Same thing when a young power hitter blasts a no-doubter to the off field. There aren't many hitters in the game who can put that kind of a swing onto a quality pitch.
.
Smoak's .275/.388/.475 slash line looks pretty nice. Looks are deceiving: in Safeco, it's sensational. His OPS+ is 150.
David Ortiz ran a 145 OPS+ in Fenway in 2003 and 2004; his slash line was 300/380/600. Smoak's 275/390/475 wins as many games in Safeco as Ortiz' 300/380/600 does in Fenway. If Smoak did no more than this, the rest of the season, he'd be one of the AL's twenty best hitters.
.
Love the AGone comp. The more so since AGone was not a lightning-quick starter; he didn't land with a huge splash. He was a worker, like Smoak, and he did some learning to get to where he is.
San Diego is a mondo tough park too, and in 2007-2008 his statline shows us the dream scenario for Smoak the next few years:
- 2007: 126 OPS+ ... 280/350/500 ... 30 HR, 100 RBI, 101 R
- 2008: 139 OPS+ ... 280/360/510 ... 36 HR, 119 RBI, 103 R
And then in 2009, of course, AGone followed up on his 2H 2008 by going nuts: 280/400/550 with a 162 OPS+ and 40 homers with 119 walks.
But it looks like Justin Smoak may walk more than the young AGone. Smoak may lead the league in walks one of these days. They're real scared of him already, and he will not swing at a ball. He's looking at 100 walks this year if he's not careful.
.
BABVA,
Dr D